Spring Tilt - NL Edition - Pitchers
We’re a day away from real baseball and this will be the final post until the minor league season starts on Friday.
We’ll review 15 notable prospect pitching performances from the NL during Spring Training and what they mean.
The AAA season begins March 29th, a day after the MLB season gets going. The AAA season will end on September 22nd. That’s nearly a full six months of AAA ball on the docket for 2024, which should be exciting.
Low-A, High-A, and AA will all begin their seasons on Friday, April 5th. So we’ll have a full week of Major League Baseball before the real prospecting fun at the lower levels and AA can begin. Low-A and High-A will end their regular seasons on September 8th, while AA will finish its regular season on September 15th.
The CPX leagues will begin on May 4th this year and will end on July 25th. It’s been moved up a month from previous years. The DSL should start around the same time as it did in 2023 which was the first week of June.
NL Notable Performances from Spring Training:
Pitchers:
Jared Jones (PIT):
Jones made the opening day roster so it’s time to rejoice if you’re an owner. After they sent Skenes down there was a bit of doubt but Jones did nothing that could sway the Pirates brass the other way. He pitched 16.1 scoreless innings while racking up 15 Ks this Spring. The verbiage was a bit vague from the Pirates, saying that Jones made the team without mentioning whether or not he secured the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation. I’m hoping it’s not a piggyback situation where he comes in for 3-4 innings at a time to spell another starter. We’ll see in about a week, or hear otherwise soon enough.
Jones was a Stuff+ darling all Spring showing a fastball in the upper 90s with over 17 inches of iVB as he touched 100-101 several times. He featured a nasty slider and all indications are that he was severely underrated coming into this Spring. Those notions are gone by now and any buy-low window has slammed shut. He pitched over 126 innings last year between AA and AAA so the workload is there for a jump to 150+ innings this year. And if he’s given the starter role right away, we’re looking at a potential arm that can win leagues given his cost in early February — if you were fortunate enough to snag him. I ranked him high in my top 100 pitching prospects Rankings in late January and if you saw that and grabbed him, kudos to you.
Christian Scott (NYM):
I got into it a bit with someone in my home league about whether or not the Mets have a pitching pipeline. I think you guys know my thoughts by now. And we’ll go over several Mets arms but Christian Scott is first in line. He’s the closest to the big leagues and he’s looking like a future frontline guy.
Scott pitched 5 innings this spring while striking out 8. The fastball plays well and his slider and changeup combination have improved. The new sweeper he has looks downright filthy and has been missing bats by what looks like several feet. Hold Christian Scott and fire him up when the Mets call him up, whether it’s in May or June — or earlier depending on injuries. The opportunity will arise given the Mets’ lack of rotational depth and all-around lack of rotational talent at the big league level. The kids are coming and it’s going to be a sight to see.
Paul Skenes (PIT):
Skenes pitched only 3 innings this spring, giving up a run and striking out 3. The generational talent has only pitched 2.2 innings above A ball in his career so he was sent back down to the Minors to, I don’t know, “refine” his stuff. He’s refined already and he’s going to be an impact arm as soon as he’s up in the show.
Pittsburgh will likely bring him up after building up his workload a bit in the upper minors. This Pittsburgh rotation of Keller at the top with Jones and Skenes coming has the potential to be scary. There are more reinforcements on the way, too. I’ve written about them extensively.
Brandon Sproat (NYM):
This feels like a back and forth between the Mets and the Pirates. Sproat pitched in the Spring Breakout game and I can’t help but include him on this list. There’s 3 or 4 arms from the Mets that I can include but I’m going to just go with Sproat for now, as I’ve written about the rest in my other posts. Here is what I wrote about Sproat and how I think he’s going to be one of the fastest climbers among pitching prospect ranks this year:
I’m going to go as far as to say that the Mets have a little pitching factory on their hands. They have another wave of arms coming up that is going to change the industry’s thoughts on the organization. Christian Scott is a University of Florida product the Mets developed and Brandon Sproat is going to be the next one.
Sproat has a mid to upper 90s fastball that sits 96-98 mph and he’s touched triple digits. He has a changeup that looks to be his most projectable plus breaking pitch to go along with an above-average slider. All the ingredients are there for Sproat to be an effective pitcher at the next level.
He has control but lacks command and Sproat is going to need to locate better if he wants to have success. Hitters will feast on a mid-90s fastball located middle-middle. That’s not a bad problem to have as it should be easy to develop his command and location on his pitches considering he does have solid control.
He’s going to be the next in line in this wave of arms the Mets have coming up which will have the industry in shock because they’ve built another pitching factory after going half a decade with no success.
Now let’s get to the Spring Breakout performance. First of all, it doesn’t add up. The Box Score says he threw 6 pitches with 2 strikeouts yet still got out of the full inning. Maybe he’s Superman and can just will his way through innings and outs without throwing a single pitch. Anyway, that’s what Spring baseball does — it has wonky numbers and isn’t always reliable. The pitch data on the other hand is another story.
Sproat threw 6 pitches and got 4 whiffs and he was up to 99 on the day. It’s hard to say he was sitting in a range considering he only threw 6 pitches but he was living 98-99. He didn’t get a chance to show his plus changeup and his above-average slider much but that’ll be evident this year when he starts in the minors. And trust me when I say this, but the kid can run it up to 101. That’s what put me onto him in the first place before the Spring Breakout game performance. His command looked sharp and he worked quickly. Sproat looks to be another Jagers and Mets pitching factory success story. He’s my pick in the organization to have a similar ascension to Christian Scott, both University of Florida products. Should I do it? Should I post another Mets arm in this piece? I think I’m going to do it. Let’s get to the next one.
Tink Hence (STL):
Hence is a bet of mine to regain form and recapture his once-heralded top pitching prospect status this year. He’s still only 21 with over 54 innings of AA ball under his belt. The results weren’t what we wanted to see at AA but he was just 20 at the time and actually finished the season on a positive note going 14 innings in his final 3 starts pitching to a 2.57 ERA. Look for that to improve this year.
Hence only pitched 4 innings this Spring but posted a 13.50 K/9 and didn’t allow a run. The fastball is still mid 90s and can touch upper 90s and it looks to have a new shape to it. That’s something I’ll be keeping an eye on this season. Hence is the future in St. Louis and I pegged St. Louis in my 2024 MLB Mock Draft to take Hagen Smith out of Arkansas. That would give them a nice 1-2 punch for the future, especially for an organization that is aging in its rotational depth.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL):
Misiorowski comes guns blazing when he’s on the mound. I ranked him fairly high in my top 100 pitching prospect rankings and he’d be higher if it weren’t for the apparent reliever risk. Misiorowski was sitting 95-97 in the Spring Breakout game which leads me to believe he was holding some in the tank because we all saw last year in the Futures game where he came out throwing triple digits.
The offerings are nasty and his command will dictate where he ultimately lands. He pitched just one other scoreless inning during the Spring in which he struck out the side and walked just one. There’s a realistic chance that Misiorowski is up in Milwaukee by mid-season and is helping out that pen given the Devin Williams injury. And if they call him up and he’s given a starter role, fire up all the Misiorowski shares you own.
Logan Henderson (MIL):
I was first on the Henderson train as I found out that he’d been working out all offseason on a slider and picking up some velo on his fastball before that information was made public. He was also a TiltValue staple last year — constantly sitting in the top percentile of the leaderboard. I tweeted out that Henderson was now sitting 94-96 after averaging about 90-92 on his 4-seamer a few weeks before he made his Spring debut. It was met with some confusion.
And then in his first Spring start, what did he do? He sat 94-96 with over 18 inches of iVB in his lone inning of work. The changeup is already nasty and one of the better secondary offerings in the minor leagues. This new development of his fastball is going to offer an elite 1-2 pairing for him and if he can get command of his newfound slider down, he has a legitimate shot at being a solid starter down the line.
He hurt his oblique in a Spring Breakout game about a week ago, but I’m not sure what the timetable is for his return. It’s a good thing it’s not the elbow or shoulder but he may be shut down to start the season. With all that said, everything I said about Henderson still stands — he’s a bonafide riser in the pitching prospect ranks this year if he does what I expect.
I wrote about Henderson in my Pitching Prospects outside the Top 100 to Target article from February 19th and if you want to give it a read you can click here or read below:
I’ll go as far as to say that Logan Henderson has one of the best changeups in the minor leagues. He plays his fastball off his changeup while the missing ingredient has been a third out pitch. Reports are that he’s been tinkering and working on his slider/curve to be more effective and we may see him use it more than 10% of the time in 2024.
Henderson repeated Low-A in 2023 and displayed better command while still racking up strikeouts — 35.2% K rate and an 8.6% BB rate. He finished the season with a 2.75 ERA and a 2.89xFIP in 78.2 innings of work.
His fastball sat at around 90-92 last year with no special outliers on its pitch shape.
This offseason, there have been reports that his fastball is now touching 95-96 with an IVB ranging between 18”-20” — and while there’s reason to be wary of offseason metrics in indoor bullpen sessions there’s reason for optimism here. Henderson is slight of frame and has a low release causing the VAA on his fastball to play. If the reports of his IVB being at least 18 inches are true then that’s a profound game-changing pitch for Henderson, to pair with his devastating changeup. As far as velocity is concerned, touching 95-96 doesn’t mean he’ll be sitting there in games, as he’ll much more likely be sitting 91-94, but with an IVB of the reported range, his fastball immediately turns into a borderline elite pitch to play off that changeup.
Henderson isn’t a complete unknown at this point but he is someone who should be monitored more closely. I’m going as far as to say that Logan Henderson will be this year’s Drew Thorpe. Keep an eye out for him and watch his starts closely. If the fastball velocity gains and the vertical break are for real, we’re looking at a pitcher who is going to be climbing my rankings aggressively. I’d get in early.
Hurston Waldrep (ATL):
I’ve been in on Waldrep since he was drafted by the Braves with the 24th pick in last year’s draft in what looks like highway robbery at this point. He’s armed with a heavy fastball and a low RPM splitter which is just a nasty offering — potentially one of the nastier offerings in the big leagues if he can command it with regularity.
In his first appearance this Spring, Waldrep touched 98.9 mph and sat 96-97.5 mph with his fastball while mixing in the splitter and slider. In one sequence, he got consecutive swinging strikes on the splitter for a strikeout that had RPMs of 619 and 563. Filthy.
I ranked him 74th overall in my top 155 Dynasty Starting Pitcher Rankings and he’s been a target of mine since the draft because I love the upside without paying the cost of some of the other top options from that draft class. The caveat is that there is reliever risk here if he can’t improve his command. His stint in the minors is one to monitor closely and if he does improve on his command then be confident in firing him up because Atlanta will notice, too, and he’ll be up in the big leagues by that point.
Cooper Hjerpe (STL):
I love Hjerpe’s stuff and the way he throws it. The only issue I have is that I think he’ll be a reliever long-term. Regardless, this spring he’s thrown 2 hitless innings and struck out 4 while walking 2.
There’s not much to say about Hjerpe, but I thought I’d give him a mention because I do like his stuff. He’s got a little Andrew Miller-lite in him with the fastball/slider combination. There’s a ton of spin and the arm angle is going to be deceptive enough to be effective in a major league pen.
Adam Mazur (SDP):
Mazur’s spot in the Padres’ rotational depth chart just improved with Drew Thorpe and Jairo Iriarte leaving town in the Dylan Cease trade. He only pitched 2 innings this Spring so there isn’t a huge sample to go on right now but I did write about Mazur in my Projecting the Future series. Here is what I wrote:
There’s an outside chance Mazur debuts this year, but I’ll include him anyway because I think Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, and Robby Snelling are ahead of him on the depth chart. Mazur is a control freak as he ran a sub-5% walk rate all of last year. He has a nasty, effective slider to go with a fastball that often flashes plus, but the only concern with him is how long he can hold onto his velocity through his starts. My concern is that Mazur is better suited for the bullpen as he can be more of a low-output, potential elite arm where his velocity plays for an inning or two at a time.
Let’s just say for argument’s sake that Mazur finishes out the season at AAA and does the same thing he did in his short stint at AA, which included a K rate over 25% and a walk rate below 5%. The helium will start to writhe because it can’t contain itself.
We’re looking at another San Diego arm that’s going to skyrocket these rankings this time next year. I don’t want to jump the gun and rank him 20th because of that, but it wouldn’t shock me in the least to see him have that type of ascension this year, despite the reliever risk.
Obviously, that was written before the Cease trade which saw Thorpe and Iriarte head to the Southside of Chicago. Now it seems like Snelling is the only arm ahead of him in terms of ETA. I still stand by what I wrote — I think he’s effective in 2-3 inning stints at a time, but we’ll see and hopefully, he can prove that projection wrong and be a viable starter.
Mick Abel (PHI):
Mick Abel looked good this Spring pitching to a 13.5 K/9 in 2.2 innings pitched. More importantly, he didn’t walk a batter. That’s been my sole concern with Abel since he’s been in the minors. If Abel is able (weird) to better command his stuff, he’s going to be an effective big-league starter. The stuff is without question.
I’m in on Abel this year as I think his price has plummeted in recent years due to a bit of prospect fatigue and concerns over his command. Here is what I wrote about Abel:
“Command is the big question with Abel. He has a pitch mix that will work effectively but it’s a matter of honing that command. In his final 4 starts last year between AA and AAA, Abel had a 1.63 ERA in 27.2IP to go with a .140AVG against, which is eye-popping. He’s not allowing hits and if he were to lower his walk rate it’d be all the more impressive. There is still a ton of upside here with Abel. Abel is a future SP2/SP3 given his command issues. If he were to lower his BB% to below 8-9% we’d be talking about a future ace.”
It seems like Mick Abel’s value is being suppressed for some reason. He’s still a top pitching prospect and I don’t think his cost is indicative of that as he’s lost a bit of helium. I’d be looking to acquire him and hope he finds the light when it comes to honing his command.
Chase Petty (CIN):
Petty pitched in a non-statcast game but I was able to retrieve the pitch data through Trackman operators. He sat 96-98 and topped 99 while he had a bullet-type cutter which sat 87-89 while topping 92. Those are encouraging signs to see from Petty who yo-yo’d from high velocity coming out of high school to a lower velo command artist and now back to a high-velocity flame thrower. Let’s hope the command sticks as his velocity is shooting back up.
Petty has all the potential in the world and this year seems crucial for his development. I’d be looking to buy at fair value and if you own him, I’d monitor his starts closely to see if his newfound high-velo is paired with the command that he showed in 2023.
Rhett Lowder (CIN):
It was good to see Rhett Lowder getting some run against pro hitters as he didn’t have a single inning under his belt last year to get a grip on how his stuff would play.
He kind of had a rough spring from a results standpoint as he gave up 8 hits and 6 earned runs in 4.2 innings while striking out 5 and walking 3. It doesn’t look good but let the kid shake off some rust after not being in a live-game setting since his college days. Lowder still has a decent floor, although pitching in Cincinnati is probably not the best for his development. I’ll be watching Lowder closely this year because I think he’s a fast riser through the system. He’s fairly polished and the command should play. The upside might not be as high as Petty’s, however.
Robby Snelling (SDP):
Snelling went 3 scoreless innings this Spring while striking out 2 and walking 1. Not much to go on, but he did look fairly good out there.
Then came the Spring Breakout game. Snelling struck out 4 batters in 3 innings, allowing only 1 run. He showed he was a control freak and threw 40 of his 53 pitches for strikes. He utilized his curveball and fastball and played them perfectly off each other — he faced a stacked Seattle lineup featuring Lazaro Mones, Colt Emerson, and Cole Young to name a few, and came out looking like a top pitching prospect. That’s what you want to see. The curveball gets the attention but I think the fastball looked the best in this one.
Snelling has an outside chance to debut this year in San Diego. I’d be monitoring that closely.
Jarlin Susana (WAS):
I’m going to close it out with what looks to be a future closer in 20-year-old Jarlin Susana. The kid is already topping out at over 102 mph and this is the type of hype I remember seeing when Jhoan Duran was coming up throwing 100+ on 5 consecutive pitches or more. The stuff is tantalizing and he also features a high 80s slider to go with the 101 mph fastball that he averaged. I repeat — averaged. Susana still has some refinement to work on but if this Spring is any indication, Susana is in line to be Washington’s closer of the future.
There are so many other names to get to but I only went 15 deep. If you have questions on any pitching performance that I didn’t mention above or in previous posts, feel free to comment and I’ll get back as soon as I can.
You can also head to Twitter/X and ask about X, Y, or Z over at Prospect_Tilt and I’ll get back to you in a timely fashion.
I hope you enjoyed the Spring Tilt series as we went over a decent amount of names from both the AL and the NL. The real fun will start tomorrow for you MLB fans and for the MiLB people it’s waiting just around the corner — scroll up and the listed start and end dates for each level are written at the beginning of this post. Happy opening day.