2024 MLB Mock Draft and Top 24 FYPD Rankings for 2025
I'll go over how I see the 2024 draft shaking out and then go over my 2025 FYPD rankings. It's still early so there's bound to be a lot of changes and I'll make updates as the season unfolds.
1) Cleveland Guardians - Jac Caglianone - 1B/LHP (Florida):
Caglianone is the perfect fit for an organization known for developing players and making it work. Caglianone only goes first overall if the Guardians view him as a two-way player and are willing to deploy him as one.
If he’s viewed as purely an LHP or a 1B internally, then he’s going to drop some, but my bet is Cleveland swings for the fences with this one and takes one of the most interesting players in college baseball, if not the most interesting player.
On the mound, he’s lowered his ERA from 4.34 in 2023 to 1.80 in 2024 and he’s lowered his Avg. against from .190 in 2023 to .104 in 2024. He has a heavy fastball that has flirted with triple digits with great separation on his changeup and a slider with good movement and potential to be a plus offering. He needs to hone his command and show he can be a control freak as the season goes on and if he does, the chances of him going first overall rise.
Offensively, he has some of the loudest tools, and his exit velocities are on par with anyone in college baseball. He has legitimate double-plus raw power and it’s being displayed in games with quick hands and a great stroke to drive the ball to all fields. If there was a concern to take away from him offensively, it’d be the hit tool.
Here are his slash lines over the last three years:
2022: .288/.339/.548
2023: .323/.389/.738
2024: .411/.494/.712
He can put those concerns to rest with a strong showing in SEC play, both offensively and on the mound — and if he does that, it might be too hard to pass on American Ohtani, or White Ohtani, whichever your preference.
2) Cincinnati Reds - Chase Burns - RHP (Wake Forest):
Chase Burns has been lighting up the radar gun in a similar fashion to Paul Skenes last year. And it seems like we’ve shifted the hype from Skenes over to Burns in less than a calendar year. Is he as heralded as Skenes? Probably not. Is he going to be the top-arm drafted in the 2024 draft? Probably. And it’s going to be hard for Cincinnati to pass on Burns at the 2 spot.
He has cornerstone ace written all over him and Wake Forest has unlocked a new iteration of him. The fastball is heavy and he can reach back and hold onto his velocity deep into starts and he pairs that with a hellacious slider that he often tinkers with and changes the shape of. Both pitches confound hitters. When he inevitably masters a changeup or learns a splitter in the minor leagues, he’s going to be a force. I went back and forth between Burns and Hagen Smith, but Burns is the top arm in this class.
Paul Skenes in 2023: 39% whiff rate & 27% chase rate
Chase Burns in 2024: 51% whiff rate & 30% chase rate
I don’t think there’s a viable argument for anyone else unless we’re grasping at straws or having some paralysis by analysis. Take the most electric pitcher in college baseball, develop him further, and don’t think twice about it.
3) Colorado Rockies - Charlie Condon - 3B/OF (Georgia):
The Rockies went pitching with their first two picks last year and while their farm is loaded and top-heavy with position player talent that won’t stop them from taking the best player on the board. That’s Charlie Condon. He’s slashing .569/.670/1.308 with 13 homers in 18 games as a redshirt Sophomore. The Rockies can put him at 3rd or a corner spot and forget about it because the offense will play, and it’ll be especially fun at Coors. Here is what I wrote about Condon in Projecting the Future: Top 61 Hitting Prospects for 2025:
Don’t overthink it. Condon is an elite hitter posting elite Z-contact rates and elite 90th-percentile EVs. There’s easy plus power and room for more and he’s off to a scorching start. I think by the time of the draft, Condon may put himself in the conversation to go first overall. He’s an easy top 5 pick at this point and he’s going to be a steal if he drops any further.
Condon is hitting against any opponent thrown his way. And for anyone who thinks he’s off to this start against non-SEC competition, just remember that last year Condon hit .339/.436/.804 with 16 homers in just 137 plate appearances against SEC pitching. I’ll reiterate it: don’t overthink it.
4) Oakland Athletics - Travis Bazzana - 2B (Oregon State):
Bazzana is built like the Tasmanian Devil. He’s absolutely explosive and he’s got even better going into this year after working at Driveline in the offseason.
His EV numbers have increased and his power output with it. He’s one of five college hitters in the last five years to have 4 batted balls over 108mph in a single game — and he’s the only one who plays an up-the-middle position. Bazzana has the potential to be the first overall pick in this year’s draft, but with the three names ahead of him he slides to fourth to the Oakland A’s. There’s a lot of Chase Utley in Bazzana if I look close enough. Oakland will look to rebuild around a top hitter before their move to Vegas and Bazzana is a perfect candidate.
5) Chicago White Sox - Nick Kurtz - 1B (Wake Forest):
Kurtz is a machine. He hits for power in college and that’s what he’s likely to do in the Majors when he gets there. Listed at 6’5 235, he’s an absolute tank. The size of Pete Alonso, maybe bigger. We’re looking at modest OBPs due to his modest AVG outcome.
If he can hit .250+ that’ll be a good outcome for Kurtz given that he’ll produce enough power to be a reliable asset. Kurtz looks to be a top 5 overall draft pick this coming summer and the White Sox need a First Baseman after the Andrew Vaughn experiment hasn’t lived up to the hype.
6) Kansas City Royals - J.J. Wetherholt - 2B (West Virginia):
J.J. Wetherholt just sounds like he’s from West Virginia. I’m pretty sure I met someone with the exact name at a casino in Wheeler half a decade ago. One thing that won’t be a gamble would be the Royals selecting him in the 2024 draft. He’s arguably the top pick in the upcoming MLB draft this summer, along with Travis Bazzana, Nick Kurtz, Charlie Condon, and now Jac Caglianone. Like Bazzana, he has defensive question marks but his offense will play.
Right now, he’s got an advanced hit tool to go with developing power. The power is there as he hit 16 homers in 55 games last year, but there’s a little more to project as he matures. The Royals can pair him up the middle with Bobby Witt Jr. and set it and forget it for years to come.
7) St. Louis Cardinals - Hagen Smith - LHP (Arkansas):
St. Louis has an aging rotation and needs an infusion of youth. Burns would’ve been a great get at 7th, but I don’t think he makes it past 2nd or 3rd, with either the Reds or Rockies snagging him. This leaves the next-best arm in the class. He’s firmly entrenched as SP2 for me. I wrote him up in Projecting the Future: Top 56 Pitching Prospects for 2025 and here is what I wrote:
Hagen Smith had arguably one of the greatest games you’ll ever see pitched this year. He was rolling through 5 innings and had 15 strikeouts making you think he might pull a Kerry Wood or a Kumar Rocker (19 strikeouts). He finished the night with 6 innings and punched out 17 while walking just 1 batter, even striking out potential number-one pick Travis Bazzana three times. And then the hype began. In his next start, he went 6 innings giving up 1 run while striking out 12 and allowing just 1 walk. The next two starts saw him going 10 innings pitched of scoreless ball, allowing just 3 hits and 4 walks, while striking out 19.
Smith has a fastball that can touch the upper 90s with a funky arm angle that makes it hard for a batter to pick up on the ball because of its deceptiveness. He’s run great K-rates throughout his college career and is looking like he’s going to continue that in his Junior year. The only concern is the command. He’s posted untenable walk rates in his first two years at Arkansas. He’s already shown improved command in his last two starts and there’s an argument to be made that Hagen Smith will be in consideration as one of the top arms taken in the draft, if not the top arm taken in the draft, as he’s a durable lefty with excellent stuff.
8) Los Angeles Angels - Braden Montgomery - OF (Texas A&M):
The Angels are going to be blown away by the tools of Braden Montgomery and with him on the board, they’ll snag him at 8th overall. He’ll be a plus defender with a plus-plus arm which will fit right in at Right Field.
Montgomery is a switch hitter for the Aggies who transferred over from Stanford last year. He put the approach concerns to rest as he’s walked more than he’s struck out so far this year (17 - 14). I think Montgomery is a perfect fit for the Angels who are usually looking for big league-ready bats that they can fast-track.
I just feel for Braden Montgomery having to go to the Angels.
9) Pittsburgh Pirates - Vance Honeycutt - OF (North Carolina):
A true five-tool talent, Honeycutt is a perfect piece for Pittsburgh. Defensively, he may be the best outfielder in college, and at the plate, he’s cut down on his chase and is slashing: .347/.455/.639 with 11 walks to 21 strikeouts in 18 games. He’s hit 6 homers and stolen 12 bases in 13 attempts.
He hit 25 homers in his first year at UNC and then just 12 last year. He’s already up to 6 this year while hitting better across the board. I think the Pirates take the chance on Honeycutt if he drops this far.
10) Washington Nationals - Konnor Griffin - OF (Jackson Prep, MS):
Do you hear that? It’s the sound of Tommy White dropping. This would’ve been a nice landing spot for White, but the Nationals already have Brady House in the pipeline and drafted Yohandy Morales last year.
Washington got burned by the Elijah Green pick two years ago but that won’t stop them from taking a chance on one of the top prep standouts this year. It’s a college-heavy class, but there are some high-upside options in the high-school ranks and that includes Konnor Griffin who looks to be the highest-upside prep bat in this class. Washington can play this in many ways, as they can watch him develop and wait three years or they just stockpile their farm while James Wood, Dylan Crews, Brady House & company are all coming up, and if they all hit and Washington is in a place to contend, use Griffin as the ultimate trade chip for an arm.
It would be funny if they took Brody Brecht at this spot. But Mike Rizzo doesn’t care how hard you throw ball four so Brecht goes to the next team on the board.
11) Detroit Tigers - Brody Brecht - RHP (Iowa):
Detroit will go high-upside arm here and Brody Brecht is the go-to guy. The Tigers’ pitching development has been damn good as Reese Olson, Wilmer Flores, and Ty Madden have all ascended the ladder and shown to be better than advertised. Don’t forget Jackson Jobe who looks like the top pitching prospect in all of baseball and looks to have some of the nastier stuff in the league. Brecht will be a project but the upside is tantalizing. I wrote about Brecht in Projecting the Future: Top 56 Pitching Prospects for 2025. Here is what I wrote:
I love it when pitchers are good two-sport athletes. Brecht was a former D1 wide receiver at Iowa before sticking to baseball full-time. It makes me want to go all-in on Brecht and maybe even be a bit of a contrarian and put him ahead of Chase Burns. I can’t do it, though.
Brecht features a triple-digit fastball with a slider that’s just as good, which he’s featured more often this season. He has a great pairing of pitches yet he can’t find the plate at times. He’s walked 10 batters in 10.1 innings pitched as of this writing. He’s also struck out 22. The fastball and slider are so good that if he ever managed to find control of them and hone his command, he’d be reminiscent of Paul Skenes. The stuff is that good, but the command isn’t. That’s what the minors are for. I’m going to bet he figures it out but it might take him a year or more of development in the minors.
*Update: Brecht pitched on March 1st and had a line of: 5IP 5H 1ER 2BB 11K
That brings his season total to 15.1 IP 8H 3ER 12BB 33K
*Another Update: Brecht has had two starts since and totaled 8 IP 5H 1ER 9 BB and 17 Ks.
That brings his season total to 23.1IP 13H 4ER 21BB 50K
It’s an encouraging sign to see him walk just 2 over 5 innings but he’s going to need to show that consistently through the rest of the college season.*
12) Boston Red Sox - Mike Sirota - OF (Northeastern):
The Red Sox are going with the hometown kid who plays about a mile away at Northeastern.
Sirota is an extremely athletic center fielder who can likely slot in at either corner spot to fill a need. His performance at the Cape Cod League showed he can hit advanced pitching and perform against better competition. Sirota has quite an unorthodox swing but it plays well given his skillset and his ability to adjust. He hits for contact and power while showing great discipline at the plate.
As of this writing, Sirota has struggled to start the 2024 campaign. He has 1 homer and is slashing .275/.405/.420 through 17 games which is a far cry from the season he had last year. I expect him to turn things around and be available for the Red Sox to scoop him up, despite his early struggles. He’s an easy first-round talent.
13) San Francisco Giants - Tommy White - 3B (LSU):
Do you hear that? That’s the sound of Tommy Tanks being drafted. He fell far enough. The Giants could go HS prep bat here, but with Tommy White on the board, he’ll be hard to pass up.
The Giants went with prep bat Bryce Eldridge last year so it makes sense they get both a position of need and a player who is most likely a top-10 talent who falls to them at 13th with a quicker ETA to the big leagues.
14) Chicago Cubs - Caleb Bonemer - SS/3B (Okemos HS, MI):
The Cubs go upside at 14th and add to their already-loaded farm with one of the best prep bats available. Bonemer is a shortstop who likely ends up at 3rd base with a strong enough arm for it.
He has a strong swing, rotates his hips well, and has a double-handed finish as he follows through with both hands on each swing. That may just be from the film I saw, but he looks like an advanced bat for someone his age. There are not many moving parts and not much of a leg kick, as he simply has a strong setup and explodes well through the zone, barreling balls.
Jed Hoyer has all the job security in the world and all the decisions will run through him. He’s going to have no problem going for the home run pick in Bonemer in the middle of the first round.
15) Seattle Mariners - Seaver King - 2B/OF (Wake Forest):
Seaver King drops to the Mariners and they pick up what is likely to be a top-10 talent at 15th. Par for the course with them in recent drafts.
King’s a versatile defender and has posted exit velocities over 110 mph. He’s a line-drive hitter and can utilize the entire field with more power in the tank for him.
Seattle seems like a perfect landing spot for a versatile player like King. And he may just fall into their laps.
16) Miami Marlins - PJ Morlando - OF (Summerville HS, SC):
Miami went two prep-arms with their first two picks last year and this year they’ll go with an exciting prep bat. PJ Morlando is a corner outfielder, most likely suited to left field but it’s his offensive profile that lands him here.
Morlando is a power threat. Simple as that. He has plus power right now and there’s potential for Miami’s development team to unlock double-plus power. It seems like a task that’s right up their alley.
17) Milwaukee Brewers - Luke Holman - RHP (LSU):
I mentioned in earlier posts that Milwaukee was a pitching factory and to always look at who they’re targeting and who goes through their system. With the 17th pick, they could go a bunch of ways, but I think they go with an arm here. And that arm is Luke Holman out of LSU.
Holman started the season with four starts of at least 5 innings pitched and he didn’t allow a run in any of them. He started the season with 24 innings pitched with 40 Ks to just 8 hits and 4 walks. He has a low-to-mid 90s fastball with good rise and two legit-breaking pitches, a slider in the mid-80s, and a curve in the upper-70s. Both are pitches that induce whiffs. Milwaukee loves strike throwers and pitchers who profile as starting pitchers and Luke Holman fits that mold.
18) Tampa Bay Rays - Slade Caldwell - OF (Valley View HS, AR):
Tampa Bay has no problem drafting High School talent. And they’ll have no problem taking the undersized Caldwell at 18th after taking Adrian Santana last year toward the end of the first round.
Caldwell is a legitimate talent and looks to fall in drafts due to his size. Tampa will pounce and reap the rewards — as there’s this bias against players who are 5’7-5’8 though we’ve seen it work before, more often than not, if the tools and skillset are apparent.
19) New York Mets - Trey Yesavage - RHP (East Carolina):
The Mets will add to their pitching factory by taking Trey Yesavage at 19th overall. I initially had Luke Holman and I can see either Milwaukee or New York targeting the same arms in this range. So whichever is drafted first, I think the other goes to the Mets at 19th. In this case, it’s Yesavage. I wrote about Yesavage in Projecting the Future: Top 56 Pitching Prospects for 2025. Here is what I wrote:
The savage started the year pitching against Rider, a random school in the middle of New Jersey. I would’ve given him more credit if it were Rutgers but that’s beside the point. He went 4 innings giving up a homer as his only hit and struck out 8. But it was against Rider. Fast forward to two starts later where he had a chance to go against an ACC team in North Carolina and a Big 10 Purdue team. These are the lines he put up:
6 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 BB 11 K
8 IP 2 H 0 ER 2 BB 11 K
Now the credits due. The results are there to begin the season and the stuff is also there to be an effective starter and to be one of the top arms taken in the 2024 draft.
He has a solid arsenal featuring four pitches: A fastball that sits 93-96 that touches 97-98 with great ride, a slider in the mid-80s with solid movement, a changeup that looks to be a plus offering and a high 70s curveball which he mixes in. He has an over-the-top arm slot with each offering and the fastball-changeup combination will confound hitters because the CH falls off the table with a good 10+ mph separation. The savage is a control freak, too. He has good command of all his pitches and there doesn’t seem to be an issue with throwing strikes when needed. He’s going to climb rankings this college season and he may even be one of the top 3 or 4 arms taken in the draft.
The Mets won’t hesitate to snag Yesavage if he’s available and add to their crop of arms that’ll be coming up in the next year or two. Eric Jagers will do a masterful job developing Yesavage given his stuff.
20) Toronto Blue Jays - Jonathan Santucci - LHP (Duke):
The Blue Jays love themselves an LHP who throws hard. Ricky Tiedemann is almost up with the big league team and they drafted Brandon Barriera two years ago. They’ll go with Santucci here who’s proven he’s one of the top arms in the draft and Toronto knows just how to develop them. Here is what I wrote about Santucci in an earlier post:
Santucci is someone who can raise his draft stock if he proves that his command has improved this season. He can climb into the first round and be a solid lefty who throws mid-90s with an effective slider and changeup. He’s already off to a great start this year in his first three appearances:
5 IP 4H 2BB 7K
6 IP 5H 3BB 10K
6IP 1H 2BB 14K
He’s going to rack up the strikeouts with his stuff, but it’ll come down to him limiting damage by not issuing as many free passes as he did last year. Here is a 96 mph Santucci fastball which he gets a strikeout swinging on:
Here is a sequence of 3 straight breaking balls to get swinging strikes on for the strikeout:
It’s rather nasty stuff and I love how he works quickly when he’s in a groove. Santucci is going to find himself not only in the first-round discussion but also in discussion as one of the top 5 arms taken in the 2024 draft.
21) Minnesota Twins - Josh Hartle - LHP (Wake Forest):
The Minnesota Twins are top-heavy with position prospects after acquiring Gabriel Gonzalez and drafting Walker Jenkins last year. This year they’ll go with a bit more safety and take a college arm.
It could be Drew Beam from Tennessee here as well, but I’m going with Josh Hartle from Wake Forest to give Minnesota a solid LHP in the system to develop.
22) Baltimore Orioles - Drew Beam - RHP (Tennessee):
With the glut of offensive prospects and talent, the Orioles have it only makes sense for them to go with an arm who can be ready to help the rotation sooner than later. Drew Beam fits that mold.
Who knows what Corbin Burnes will do after this season in FA? That leaves Grayson Rodriguez as the sole young arm left in that rotation. Pair him with Drew Beam and now you have a nice 1-2 punch to go with that stellar offense.
23) Los Angeles Dodgers - Cam Smith - 3B (Florida State):
The Dodgers don’t have many 3B in their pipeline and Cam Smith out of Florida State is a perfect fit. It’s a great fit for both the Dodgers and Smith.
I’m not sure if Smith will even be around at the 23 spot by the time the draft rolls around as I see him being a climber once conference play begins. For this first iteration, though, Cam Smith lands with the Dodgers at 23.
24) Atlanta Braves - Kaelen Culpepper - SS/3B (Kansas State):
The Braves got a steal with the 24th pick last year and they’ll get another steal with the 24th pick this year.
Kaelen Culpepper will be a solid player at the next level and his offensive game will complement what the Braves already have in place. He’s following up his sophomore campaign with a solid year this year as he’s slashing: .307/.430/.547 with 4 homers and 7 steals on the season.
He can see his draft stock rise if he does well during conference play. There’s plus power potential in the bat with solid contact rates and that’s the type of profile that fits well with what Atlanta is looking for.
25) San Diego Padres - Cam Caminiti - LHP (Saguaro HS, AZ):
San Diego just traded away two nearly Major League ready arms for Dylan Cease. They have Adam Mazur, Robby Snelling, and Dylan Lesko still in the pipeline and they’ll add a high-upside high school arm to add to that pipeline.
Caminiti is a lefty who can hit upper 90s and also features a slider and a curve. There’s a lot of development left to refine his pitches and mechanics but this is a project San Diego can take on as they already have a solid Major League rotation and they have pieces in the pipeline ready to contribute sooner rather than later.
26) New York Yankees - Carson Benge - OF/RHP (Oklahoma State):
The Yankees take a flier on Carson Benge out of Oklahoma State. Benge profiles as a Right Fielder who will be more contact-oriented than power-oriented at the plate.
He does have pull-side power which is why I think the Yankees try and utilize that with the short porch in right. He’s an advanced hitter as he walks more than he strikes out and he rarely chases pitches out of the zone. I think Benge has all the makings of a solid impactful bat in the Yankees lineup, or at least a prospect they can use as trade bait when they inevitably need an arm after Gerrit Cole’s right arm falls off.
27) Philadelphia Phillies - Malcolm Moore - C (Stanford):
What better replacement for JT Realmuto than Malcolm Moore? Moore profiles as a plus-power left-handed hitting catcher.
He won’t be as good behind the plate as Realmuto and there may be concerns about where he sticks long-term but for now, he’s a catcher and the Phillies can use one in the pipeline to be the eventual replacement for Realmuto.
28) Houston Astros - Bryce Rainer - SS (Harvard-Westlake HS, CA)
Bryce Rainer is as solid as they come at shortstop and shows all the instincts and movements to stick at the position long-term. The Astros can use a high-upside talent like this and will bet on him making the proper adjustments at the plate.
He’s a potential steal this late as he has top-20 upside if the offensive profile can be developed by an organization. I think Houston is the perfect landing spot for Bryce Rainer.
29) Arizona Diamondbacks - Ben Hess - RHP (Alabama):
Arizona needs pitching and it needs pitching badly. They need to shore up the pipeline and with two late firsts this year, I think they’ll do just that.
Either Thatcher Hurd or Ben Hess can land here if they drop this far and that would be a perfect scenario for Arizona as they pick again after Texas.
30) Texas Rangers - Caleb Lomavita - C (California):
Texas goes with Caleb Lomavita and the rich get richer. They get a free-swinging Catcher who posts low strikeout rates and is a contact machine. He still hits for average despite the chase rates and the free-swinging.
Texas can use a Catcher in the pipeline to develop and Lomavita is a solid value at 30 overall.
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