Projecting the Future: 2025 MLB Top 56 Pitching Prospects
We’re going to take a look into the future and project/predict who the top 56 pitching prospects will be in baseball in 2025.
If someone obvious is omitted from the list that’s because I’m assuming they get at least one inning pitched at the MLB level in 2024 — or at least has the opportunity to get an appearance. Even one Major League appearance constitutes graduation from this list.
A lot of these are just predictions and most rankings are arbitrary — so don’t get twisted when your favorite arm isn’t on this list or that they’re too low.
There won’t be many college arms on this list but I’ll try and include several and slot them in where I see fit.
Get your rose-colored binoculars on and let’s get started:
56) JUSTIN WROBLESKI (LAD):
Don’t bet against the Dodgers pitching factory. And that’s what I won’t do when it comes to Wrobleski. Also, don’t bet against post-TJ velocity spikes. That’s what Wrobleski experienced. He went from sitting 89-91 pre-TJ to sitting 93-95 last year, often averaging 95 mph as the year went on to end the season. Is there more in the tank for another uptick? That’ll be known in 2024 as he likely starts the year in AA after pitching over 100 innings in High-A last year.
Wrobleski features a mid-90s fastball to go with three or four other pitches. He’s ditched the curveball usage in favor of a slider and a cutter which he’s been using with more frequency. The questions that remain are will the velocity spike maintain this year and if they do, does he have another gear for yet another uptick? The arsenal is great and the fact that he’s a newfound control freak has me intrigued about his future. He lowered his walk rate from 16.7% to 8.3% from 2022 to 2023. He’s not the most exciting Dodgers arm for me, but he’s worth a look and that’s why he starts this list off at 56th.
55) BRANDON BARRIERA (TOR):
I loved Barriera entering the 2022 draft but now there’s a dark cloud hovering over all those good feelings. The injuries he suffered in 2023 led to a dip in velocity and now there are concerns over a lack of conditioning.
I’m going to give the kid a break and wait it out while watching how his 2024 season unfolds. The dip in velocity is a red flag and the fact that his injuries were to his elbow and bicep aren’t a good sign. The art of pitching is extremely volatile and so are young arms who happen to start showing signs of decay, especially to the elbow. The lack of conditioning is worrisome and we’ve already seen what that’s like in Toronto with Alek Manoah. Manoah was on a path to an extension to get his 40 acres but he put on 40 pounds instead and now his arm looks like it’s 26 going on 40.
I hope that isn’t the case with Barriera and I’m giving him 2024 before I write him off because the optimistic flip side is that he can rise through the minor league ladder as Ricky Tiedemann did.
54) ADAM MAZUR (SDP):
There’s an outside chance Mazur debuts this year, but I’ll include him anyway because I think Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, and Robby Snelling are ahead of him on the depth chart. Mazur is a control freak as he ran a sub-5% walk rate all of last year. He has a nasty, effective slider to go with a fastball that often flashes plus, but the only concern with him is how long he can hold onto his velocity through his starts. My concern is that Mazur is better suited for the bullpen as he can be more of a low-output, potential elite arm where his velocity plays for an inning or two at a time.
Let’s just say for argument’s sake that Mazur finishes out the season at AAA and does the same thing he did in his short stint at AA, which included a K rate over 25% and a walk rate below 5%. The helium will start to writhe because it can’t contain itself.
We’re looking at another San Diego arm that’s going to skyrocket these rankings this time next year. I don’t want to jump the gun and rank him 20th because of that, but it wouldn’t shock me in the least to see him have that type of ascension this year, despite the reliever risk.
53) MARCO RAYA (MIN):
Raya has a solid fastball sitting 94-96 mph with two hellacious breaking pitches. A slider that might be one of the best in the minors and a curveball that looks to be above average.
Raya has all the tools to be a mainstay in the Minnesota rotation. It’s just a matter of when there’s going to be space for him and whether or not Minnesota decides to go that route. Minnesota has been conservative with Raya’s workload by trotting him out as a starter but not letting him go any more than 4 innings at a time. They’re teasing him with starts and will eventually end up making him a bullpen arm. The reliever probability is why he’s ranked here and not higher.
52) DOMINIC HAMEL (NYM):
The Mets’ pitching factory is going to produce a stream of arms that people are underrating heavily. Hamel is one of them. He has a low to mid-90s fastball with elite spin and a low VAA which worked well for him in 2023. He paired it with a nice slider and a changeup he has a feel for but doesn’t throw too often. The big question was how he was going to fare in AA and he posted excellent numbers at the level. Bringing the walks down will be his next challenge but he already proved that he was capable of doing that to end the year.
In his final 9 starts, Hamel had an 11.44 K/9 to go with a 3.19 BB/9, lowering his walk rate to below 10% while pitching to a 1.87 ERA and a .188 AVG against. Hamel seems like someone with a high floor and I know Christian Scott and Mike Vasil are getting a ton of hype when it comes to the upcoming wave of Mets arms, but I’m here to tell you that Hamel is going to be right in that grouping. They’re going to form a trio that comes up together around the same time frame and it’ll be like 2014-2016 again, except not as dominant.
51) THOMAS HARRINGTON (PIT):
Look what we have here. Another pitching factory. At this point, I think the entire league outside of a few organizations are legitimate pitching factories. Pittsburgh got the most out of Mitch Keller after he went to Tread. They drafted Paul Skenes who they likely don’t even have to develop. They developed Jared Jones who’s seen his velocity tick up and his pitch shape get better. Bubba Chandler was once a hitter and Pittsburgh developed him into one of the top pitching prospects in their system and potentially in all of baseball. Pittsburgh even has Anthony Solometo waiting in the wings to be the next big lefty command artist.
Speaking of command artist, Harrington is just that. And while the fastball grades out a bit low, that isn’t an issue for young pitchers anymore as they have an offseason to go to a lab and snort smelling salts before tossing pulldowns and throwing plyos — and before you know it a 91 mph fastball is now sitting 94-96. Pittsburgh has the potential to be scary.
50) TY FLOYD (CIN):
It’s not easy being the #2 on an LSU team featuring Paul Skenes as the ace. You sometimes go forgotten. Floyd is now with the Cincinnati Reds after being drafted 37th overall in 2023 and has Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty ahead of him. For now.
Floyd is an interesting arm in that he has a dominant fastball but relied on it too much in college. Spencer Strider does the same thing and has gotten ace-like results, although he’s added to his repertoire. Some see Floyd heading to the bullpen and while that’s certainly a possibility, I think the Reds try and use Floyd as a starter and help him develop his secondary offerings to pair with his dominant fastball. 2024 will be telling. Do I have him too high or too low? I don’t know as of yet, but the reliever risk has me ranking him here.
49) JESUS TILLERO (LAD):
Tillero was signed out of Venezuela as one of the top pitchers in the 2023 international class. There are conflicting reports on his fastball as some have it as high as him sitting mid-90s while others have him sitting low 90s, touching 95. Let me tell you this, though. This kid is for real. He has an exceptional feel for his fastball with incredible vertical break for someone his age. It’s already an MLB-caliber pitch. He’s a pitching savant as someone this young to be able to command his pitches while also having a fastball/curveball combination that’s both good in shape and effective in games is rare.
You know it’s a good thing when people within an organization rave about someone but you know it’s a great thing when people from different organizations are talking about them and raving about their plus makeup and stuff. Phrases like, “This kid is not real” get thrown around a lot when it comes to Tillero. That’s something I want to hear when it comes to targeting a player. Tillero is on my short-list of arms who haven’t debuted state-side to make a big impact in 2024. He’s only 17 as of this writing so the runway is still long, but that’s never stopped anyone from speculating on a special talent. Keep tabs on Tillero and make sure you’re the one who’s adding him before your league-mates even hear about him.
48) JOSE FLEURY (HOU):
Fleury flashes 4 potential plus pitches including his fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. Fleury finished 18th in the final TiltValue rankings for 2023 producing an excellent 16.48% SwStr%. He’s shown decent command in the minors and in 2023 at A ball, he pitched to a 34.9% K rate and a 12.1% walk rate. He had a 2.7% walk rate in 2022 in the DSL so even if he can cut his walk rate to 7-8% in 2024, he’s going to be a factor and a must-add in deeper dynasty leagues.
He’s likely to start 2024 in A+ and he’ll continue to flash his 4 potential plus pitches before getting the call to AA where he’ll do much of the same. The only downside here is that there’s potential reliever risk with his profile but Houston is going to trot him out as a starter as long as possible to see what they have.
47) LUIS PERALES (BOS):
As a 20-year-old between A and A+ last year, Perales pitched to a 3.91 ERA. If you took his final 13 starts between both levels he pitched to a 3.14 ERA with 80K’s in 63 innings pitched. The only problem was that he also walked 30 batters. Lowering his walk rate will be key for Perales as he’s been prone to losing his command in the middle of starts. He’s a high-variance arm who features a plus fastball and curveball that’s been shown to be plus at times. Here is his fastball in action:
I think Perales has the stuff to be a decent mid-rotation starter and while there’s reliever risk in his profile, Boston will do everything they can to further develop him as a starter.
46) JOSH STEPHAN (TEX):
Stephan improved upon his K rate and walk rate from 2022 to 2023 going from A+ to AA. He lifted his K rate to over 30% and lowered his walk rate to under 5.5%. He won’t overpower anyone with his fastball as it sits low 90s but it’s his slider which does most of the damage.
He gets most of his strikeouts via the slider and his changeup is another secondary which is showing flashes of being a potential plus pitch. He showed great command last year and can use all 3 of his pitches in any count. I know everyone loves these pitchers who throw 98+, myself included, but Stephan is an arm who’s being underrated because of his lack of velocity. And here I am underrating this control artist. The secondaries improved big time from 2022 to 2023 and with his newfound command of them, he lowered his walk rate by nearly 10 points. You can call him a control freak, now.
45) JOSE CORNIELL (TEX):
There are just too many arms in the Texas system that I’m high on. Corniell is one of them. Texas looks like another pitching factory for young arms especially at the lower levels of the minors.
Corniell posted a SwStr% of 15.92% between A and A+ while pitching to a sub 3.00 ERA in over 100 innings pitched.
Corniell features a fastball that’s anywhere from 92-97 mph with a nice mid-80s slider and a low to mid-80s changeup. In 2023, he also added a cutter to his repertoire which he used to great success. He’s not rostered heavily in many leagues so you should have the option to pick him up. He’s a definite sleeper in the Texas organization and I have been saying that since last year.
44) TREY YESAVAGE (East Carolina):
The savage started the year pitching against Rider, a random school in the middle of New Jersey. I would’ve given him more credit if it were Rutgers but that’s beside the point. He went 4 innings giving up a homer as his only hit and struck out 8. But it was against Rider. Fast forward to two starts later where he had a chance to go against an ACC team in North Carolina and a Big 10 Purdue team. These are the lines he put up:
6 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 BB 11 K
8 IP 2 H 0 ER 2 BB 11 K
Now the credits due. The results are there to begin the season and the stuff is also there to be an effective starter and to be one of the top arms taken in the 2024 draft.
He has a solid arsenal featuring four pitches: A fastball that sits 93-96 that touches 97-98 with great ride, a slider in the mid-80s with solid movement, a changeup that looks to be a plus offering and a high 70s curveball which he mixes in. He has an over-the-top arm slot with each offering and the fastball-changeup combination will confound hitters because the CH falls off the table with a good 10+ mph separation. The savage is a control freak, too. He has good command of all his pitches and there doesn’t seem to be an issue with throwing strikes when needed. He’s going to climb rankings this college season and he may even be one of the top 3 or 4 arms taken in the draft.
43) BRANDON SPROAT (NYM):
I’m going to go as far as to say that the Mets have a little pitching factory on their hands. They have another wave of arms coming up that is going to change the industry’s thoughts on the organization. Christian Scott is a University of Florida product the Mets developed and Brandon Sproat is going to be the next one.
Sproat has a mid to upper 90s fastball that sits 96-98 mph and he’s touched triple digits. He has a changeup that looks to be his most projectable plus breaking pitch to go along with an above-average slider. All the ingredients are there for Sproat to be an effective pitcher at the next level.
He has control but lacks command and Sproat is going to need to locate better if he wants to have success. Hitters will feast on a mid-90s fastball located middle-middle. That’s not a bad problem to have as it should be easy to develop his command and location on his pitches considering he does have solid control.
He’s going to be the next in line in this wave of arms the Mets have coming up which will have the industry in shock because they’ve built another pitching factory after going half a decade with no success.
42) ALEX CLEMMEY (CLE):
Another pitcher from a pitching factory. This time in Cleveland. I think Clemmey is too low on this list and I’ll say that with confidence. I can see Clemmey shooting up everyone’s rankings with a hype train that borders out of control by mid-summer once they see his arsenal and projectability. People will compare him to Chris Sale because he’s a tall, lanky, white guy and all hell will break loose when the comp is made.
Clemmey is a towering 6’6 205 lefty who sits mid-90s and can touch up to 98. Yet, there’s still more to fill out on his frame to give him some thickness. He also features a plus curveball. But back to the fastball — that’s the pitch that’s going to elevate Clemmey into elite status among pitching prospects as it has great characteristics to go with the velocity. I’m saying it now, Clemmey is ranked too low but that’s just a testament to the arms ahead of him.
41) JONATHAN SANTUCCI (Duke):
Santucci is someone who can raise his draft stock if he proves that his command has improved this season. He can climb into the first round and be a solid lefty who throws mid-90s with an effective slider and changeup. He’s already off to a great start this year in his first three appearances:
5 IP 4H 2BB 7K
6 IP 5H 3BB 10K
6IP 1H 2BB 14K
He’s going to rack up the strikeouts with his stuff, but it’ll come down to him limiting damage by not issuing as many free passes as he did last year. Here is a 96 mph Santucci fastball which he gets a strikeout swinging on:
Here is a sequence of 3 straight breaking balls to get swinging strikes on for the strikeout:
It’s rather nasty stuff and I love how he works quickly when he’s in a groove. Santucci is going to find himself not only in the first-round discussion but also in discussion as one of the top 5 arms taken in the 2024 draft.
40) CHARLEE SOTO (MIN):
Taken with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Soto is built like he’s going to be an absolute tank. If you squint from a distance he almost looks like Jhoan Duran in that Twins uniform. That’s how thick he is. And he uses it to his advantage. He’s a power pitcher with a heavy fastball and a heavy mid-to-upper 80s changeup to go with a sharp slider.
All three are looking like potential plus pitches and I want to apologize to Soto in advance when he rockets up the rankings next year and is inevitably a consensus top 15 arm in the prospect pool.
39) THOMAS WHITE (MIA):
While Noble Meyer gets all the acclaim as part of the 2023 Marlins draft class, Thomas White is here to remind you that he was arguably the top lefty drafted from that class. And the Marlins got him with the 35th pick. Hats off to Kim Ng & company.
White features a fastball that tops out at 97-98 to go with a changeup that offers solid separation in the low 80s and a curveball in the upper 70s that’s going to need some refinement. He has all the tools necessary to be an effective lefty starter, but the main concern like with most young pitchers is his command. If the command is figured out he has as much upside as plenty of the names ahead of him and he’ll be ranked accordingly. I just need to see it first.
38) SANTIAGO SUAREZ (TBR):
Suarez pitched to great results in 2023 which led to an aggressive promotion to Low-A in August as an 18-year-old. He’s a control freak — not issuing many walks — and has a fastball with good iVB (18+ inches) that can sit mid-90s to go with a changeup with decent separation and a curveball. All the ingredients are here to make this recipe a success and the trade to Tampa Bay only helps his cause.
I’d have him higher on this list but because he’s still so young, I think it’ll be another year before he’s a consensus top-15 arm or higher. The runway is still long but Tampa seems to be pushing him quite aggressively. Suarez is going to be a name to watch this year and if he can increase his K rate while keeping everything else the same, he may just be a top-15 arm as soon as the end of this year.
37) PAYTON MARTIN (LAD):
Martin finished 2023 43rd in TiltValue so he’s been on my radar for quite some time as he was on the leaderboard since May. Martin only threw 39.2 innings last year while racking up 48 strikeouts to just 15 walks — pitching to a 2.04 ERA at Low-A.
He has a solid arsenal featuring a 94-97 mph FB to go along with a curveball, slider, and changeup. He has command of all 4 pitches in his mix. It’s quite rare to see that from an 18-year-old and he makes it easy on himself because his delivery is repeatable and he’s extremely athletic and explosive on the mound. Martin’s workload will be a thing to monitor in 2024 as will the length of his starts.
I think Martin is going to be one of the more polished arms in the Dodgers organization sooner than later and he has a chance to climb fast. We’ll be hearing his name more often in 2024 and now is the time to buy.
36) HENRY LALANE (NYY):
Lalane is a behemoth of a kid. He’s a 6’7’’ lefty who sits 93-96 mph with his fastball often touching 97. He has a good changeup which sits 84-86 mph for good separation and a slower slider which sits 77-79 mph.
Lalane used those three pitches at CPX last year and it resulted in a 14.12 K/9 — good for a 38.6% K rate. Even more impressive was his command. He had a 1.66 BB/9 — good for just a 4.5% walk rate. Overall he had a 34.1% K-BB% which is just absurd for someone at this stage of his development. Lalane should start in Low-A and if he can use his repertoire to repeat the same results he had at CPX, he’s going to climb into a few top 100 lists. He has that much potential.
The only reason I’m keeping him out of the top 30 for now is for the same reason as Santiago Suarez. I think we give it another year on Lalane, but if he posts similar results and continues to be pushed up the ladder, then I can see a similar ascension to that of Noah Schultz. There will even be comps made to Schultz by mid-season.
35) CORY LEWIS (MIN):
Let’s get one thing straight: Cory Lewis isn’t a knuckleballer, he’s a pitcher with a knuckleball. It’s like saying Ronald Acuña Jr. is a home run hitter. No, he also steals 70+ bases and plays great defense. Or that your plumber deals with just shit and pipes. No, he has a mortgage and kids and writes a newsletter about fantasy baseball. That isn’t me, I swear. But like the plumber and like Acuña Jr, Lewis has more on his plate than just one thing in his arsenal.
When most people think of elite fastballs, they think of 96+ with some movement. While Lewis isn’t touching 96 with his fastball, he does have elite qualities to it. He has an elite induced vertical break (IVB) of 19.7 inches on his fastball which averages 91 mph and touches 93-94. That’ll play, even without a knuckleball in your arsenal. His fastball resulted in a 17.8% SwStr% at Low-A last year.
He also throws a tumbling curveball to great success — he had an 18.9% SwStr% on the curveball at Low-A last year — which he mixes in to go along with his FB and KN.
Now let’s get to the knuckleball. He throws a hard one. He averaged 83-84 mph on his knuckleball last year and it almost had fork-like qualities. R.A. Dickey won the Cy Young in 2012 and was considered to throw his knuckler hard, anywhere from 70-80mph, depending on the type of knuckler. Compare that to Tim Wakefield who averaged about 66-67 mph on his knuckleball while averaging 74.1 mph on his fastball. Wakefield carved out a decent and long career with a slow fastball and a slow knuckle. The difference between Dickey and Wakefield was stark and the results showed for R.A. Dickey. This was R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball velocity chart from 2012:
*Credit to Eno Sarris’ article on RA Dickey’s knuckleball on Fangraphs from 2012*
As you can see, he was throwing his knuckleball harder than his career average in 2012, or just throwing the hard version of his knuckleball more often, reaching 78-80 mph with frequency.
Physics professor Alan Nathan found that the harder you threw the knuckleball the less movement it had on it (which is a good thing for its purpose):
“…the movement on the knuckleball is as random in magnitude as it is in direction. Moreover, the maximum movement appears to decrease with increasing speed.”
This bodes well for Lewis, who’s been shown to have an RPM ranging from 140-195 on his knuckleball which is mind-blowing considering he throws it low to mid 80s.
With the use of his low 90s fastball with elite near-20 inch IVB to go with his tumbling curve, Lewis’ mid-80s knuckleball is going to confound hitters in the upper minors. If his results in the lower minors were any indication — his knuckleball induced a 23.5% SwStr% — Lewis is bound for success at AA and eventually the majors when he gets the call. This is a potentially useful arm in a rotation for whatever team he plays for. There are a lot of qualities here that’ll play in the big leagues and he’s being criminally undervalued because people think a low 90s fastball and a knuckleball is some sort of gimmick — it’s not: it’s an elite pairing because of the qualities of both pitches. For dynasty purposes, I’d be looking to own Lewis everywhere because that ship is going to sail the moment he has success at AA — and there may still be doubters.
34) MICHAEL ARIAS (CHC):
Arias is the type of high-variance arm I love. He’s a converted position player and started 22 games between A and A+ last year. He absolutely dominated A ball with a mid-90s fastball that can touch the upper 90s, a nasty slider, and a changeup that has so much arm side run on it that I don’t know how much feel for it he has yet. But all the options are potential plus pitches. You can see the changeup for yourself:
Command was an issue last year but it was the first time he’d thrown more than 25 innings in a single season. He pitched 81.1 innings last year and is likely to pass the 100-inning mark this year. There is definite reliever risk here but I’m giving Arias a chance to prove that he’s a viable starter with elite offerings in 2024. If there’s any improvement in his walk rate, Michael Arias is going to be the next big pitcher that Cubs fans on Twitter are going to clamor over by mid-season. The stuff is that good.