18 Pitching Prospects outside the Top 100 to Target

I'll break down 18 pitching prospects for you to target that aren't getting enough love in prospect circles

Cory Lewis (MIN)(23):

Let’s get one thing straight: Cory Lewis isn’t a knuckleballer, he’s a pitcher with a knuckleball. It’s like saying Ronald Acuña Jr. is a home run hitter. No, he also steals 70+ bases and plays great defense. Or that your plumber deals with just shit and pipes. No, he has a mortgage and kids and writes a newsletter about fantasy baseball. That isn’t me, I swear. But like the plumber and like Acuña Jr, Lewis has more on his plate than just one thing in his arsenal.

When most people think of elite fastballs, they think of 96+ with some movement. While Lewis isn’t touching 96 with his fastball, he does have elite qualities to it. He has an elite induced vertical break (IVB) of 19.7 inches on his fastball which averages 91 mph and touches 93-94. That’ll play, even without a knuckleball in your arsenal. His fastball resulted in a 17.8% SwStr% at Low-A last year.

He also throws a tumbling curveball to great success — he had an 18.9% SwStr% on the curveball at Low-A last year — which he mixes in to go along with his FB and KN.

Now let’s get to the knuckleball. He throws a hard one. He averaged 83-84 mph on his knuckleball last year and it almost had fork-like qualities. R.A. Dickey won the Cy Young in 2012 and was considered to throw his knuckler hard, anywhere from 70-80mph, depending on the type of knuckler. Compare that to Tim Wakefield who averaged about 66-67 mph on his knuckleball while averaging 74.1 mph on his fastball. Wakefield carved out a decent and long career with a slow fastball and a slow knuckle. The difference between Dickey and Wakefield was stark and the results showed for R.A. Dickey. This was R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball velocity chart from 2012:

*Credit to Eno Sarris’ article on RA Dickey’s knuckleball on Fangraphs from 2012*

As you can see, he was throwing his knuckleball harder than his career average in 2012, or just throwing the hard version of his knuckleball more often, reaching 78-80 mph with frequency.

Physics professor Alan Nathan found that the harder you threw the knuckleball the less movement it had on it (which is a good thing for its purpose):

“…the movement on the knuckleball is as random in magnitude as it is in direction. Moreover, the maximum movement appears to decrease with increasing speed.”

This bodes well for Lewis, who’s been shown to have an RPM ranging from 140-195 on his knuckleball which is mind-blowing considering he throws it low to mid 80s.

With the use of his low 90s fastball with elite near-20 inch IVB to go with his tumbling curve, Lewis’ mid-80s knuckleball is going to confound hitters in the upper minors. If his results in the lower minors were any indication — his knuckleball induced a 23.5% SwStr% — Lewis is bound for success at AA and eventually the majors when he gets the call. This is a potentially useful arm in a rotation for whatever team he plays for. There are a lot of qualities here that’ll play in the big leagues and he’s being criminally undervalued because people think a low 90s fastball and a knuckleball is some sort of gimmick — it’s not: it’s an elite pairing because of the qualities of both pitches. For dynasty purposes, I’d be looking to own Lewis everywhere because that ship is going to sail the moment he has success at AA — and there may still be doubters.

Logan Henderson (MIL)(21):

I’ll go as far as to say that Logan Henderson has one of the best changeups in the minor leagues. He plays his fastball off his changeup while the missing ingredient has been a third out pitch. Reports are that he’s been tinkering and working on his slider/curve to be more effective and we may see him use it more than 10% of the time in 2024.

Henderson repeated Low-A in 2023 and displayed better command while still racking up strikeouts — 35.2% K rate and an 8.6% BB rate. He finished the season with a 2.75 ERA and a 2.89xFIP in 78.2 innings of work.

His fastball sat at around 90-92 last year with no special outliers on its pitch shape.

This offseason, there have been reports that his fastball is now touching 95-96 with an IVB ranging between 18”-20” — and while there’s reason to be wary of offseason metrics in indoor bullpen sessions there’s reason for optimism here. Henderson is slight of frame and has a low release causing the VAA on his fastball to play. If the reports of his IVB being at least 18 inches are true then that’s a profound game-changing pitch for Henderson, to pair with his devastating changeup. As far as velocity is concerned, touching 95-96 doesn’t mean he’ll be sitting there in games, as he’ll much more likely be sitting 91-94, but with an IVB of the reported range, his fastball immediately turns into a borderline elite pitch to play off that changeup.

Henderson isn’t a complete unknown at this point but he is someone who should be monitored more closely. I’m going as far as to say that Logan Henderson will be this year’s Drew Thorpe. Keep an eye out for him and watch his starts closely. If the fastball velocity gains and the vertical break are for real, we’re looking at a pitcher who is going to be climbing my rankings aggressively. I’d get in early.

Jesus Tillero (LAD)(17):

Tillero was signed out of Venezuela as one of the top pitchers in the 2023 international class. There are conflicting reports on his fastball as some have it as high as him sitting mid-90s while others have him sitting low 90s, touching 95. Let me tell you this, though. This kid is for real. He has an exceptional feel for his fastball with incredible vertical break for someone his age. It’s already an MLB-caliber pitch. He’s a pitching savant as someone this young to be able to command his pitches while also having a fastball/curveball combination that’s both good in shape and effective in games is rare.

You know it’s a good thing when people within an organization rave about someone but you know it’s a great thing when people from different organizations are talking about them and raving about their plus makeup and stuff. Phrases like, “This kid is not real” get thrown around a lot when it comes to Tillero. That’s something I want to hear when it comes to targeting a player. Tillero is on my short-list of arms who haven’t debuted state-side to make a big impact in 2024. He’s only 17 as of this writing so the runway is still long but that’s never stopped anyone from speculating on a special talent. Keep tabs on Tillero and make sure you’re the one who’s adding him before your league-mates even hear about him.

Jaden Hamm (DET)(21):

Hamm was drafted 143rd overall in the 2023 draft to the Detroit Tigers. His fastball is usually 92-95 from an over-the-top slot with a ton of carry. He averaged 93.3 mph on his fastball last year with an IVB of 19.6”. The fastball alone induced a 20.7% SwStr% for him. He also has a changeup and a good curveball with good depth. The breaking stuff will be his bread and butter but the fastball with the vertical break can be a difference-maker to pair with the breaking stuff.

So far in his professional career, Hamm has a 0.00 ERA. Before you get too excited, he’s pitched just 11 innings. Okay, now relax. He won’t be putting up zeros forever — but it was a good debut for the 5th rounder. He’s a potential pop-up prospect this year and I hope the Tigers are aggressive with him and have him start the year in High-A so that we get a better understanding of how the stuff will play. As of now, he’s someone to keep tabs on and a name to know. Bookmark him, highlight him, write him down in your notepad — whichever your preference. Just know that you’ll hear his name more often as he navigates through the minors.

Walter Ford (SEA)(19):

Drafted 74th overall in the 2022 draft, Walter Ford still only has 22.2 IP at the CPX level under his belt. He has an electric delivery and can project velocity gains as he matures and fills out. As recently as this week, Ford was shown to throw 94 in a bullpen session which bodes well because his prior bullpen session high was 92 — when he was topping out at 96-97 in games. Ford is an exciting prospect for many reasons. He has two nasty secondary offerings in the slider/curveball and splitter and being in Seattle’s organization only helps his cause. If we see Ford pumping 97-98 in games this year it’ll be all the proof I need that he’s going to be a pop-up prospect come 2024.

His fastball has great vertical movement and as of this offseason metrics showed him sitting 91-93 with 20 inches of IVB. The velocity is going to go up with Ford, it’s only a matter of time with someone of his age, frame, and development curve and I think this year we’ll see the first step in the progression.

The splitter sat 87 with 10 inches of vert and 14 inches of H-movement while the slider sat at about 84-85 with -15 to -17 inches of H break. Fangraphs gives him a 40 grade on his fastball which I think is entirely too low given the projectability and shape of the pitch. Keep an eye out for Ford and don’t write him off like some others just yet.

David Sandlin (BOS)(22):

Recently traded to the Boston Red Sox, former Kansas City Royals farmhand David Sandlin went under the radar for most of 2023. With all of the pitching development talent the Red Sox acquired over the offseason, it’s not a secret that Sandlin was a target for them to acquire.

I ranked Sandlin 34th as part of my top 100 pitching prospects and here is what I wrote:

“A mid-90s fastball that can touch 98 (reports of him touching triple digits in the offseason) and a slider with good H movement. The changeup and splitter also flash as potential plus pitches from what I’ve seen. Not many people are talking about David Sandlin given his stuff and results and I think he’s a priority add in deeper dynasty formats. He is a name people are going to be hearing more of in 2024. Sandlin is a future mid-rotation starter as an SP2/SP3 with considerable upside for more.”

More on the triple digits from the offseason: during a bullpen session, metrics showed Sandlin hitting 100mph with 20” IVB on his fastball. That’s elite stuff. That’s also absurd and only a handful of pitches; I repeat, pitches, not pitchers, were able to produce those metrics in the big leagues last year. I can’t help but think the Red Sox were privy to these developments and that was the reason they targeted him in the first place.

Jesus Rivero (MIL)(20):

First things first, Rivero has to hone his command and limit the walks. Besides that, he’s a great arm to know as he has a ton of breaking stuff that all work well for him. He throws his fastball from an almost goofy low arm angle and gets a lot of carry on it sitting 90-92. It’s paired with a nasty cutter that sits 86 mph. All in all, Rivero has an arsenal, it’s just a matter of him mastering his command to get the results he desires. Rivero is an arm I’m keeping an eye out for in 2024 because if he does improve his command, he’s going to be a name to watch — and the results will follow.

He still pitched to a 3.00 ERA last year in Low-A despite a 16.4% BB rate. An ideal rate for him would be 10-12% for his stuff to be truly effective — as 2024 will be known as Jesus Rivero BB rate watch.

Caden Dana (LAA)(20):

I ranked Dana 37th as part of my top 100 pitching prospects and here is what I wrote:

“Dana has allowed just 4 Home Runs in over 75 IP in professional baseball and 3 of them came in a single game. He limits the home run and strikes batters out. I would be higher on Dana if he weren’t in the Angels system but I can’t ignore the stuff and results. He pitched to a 17.24% SwStr% last season in just over 68 innings for a K% of 31.7%. If you take out the one professional start in which he gave up the 3 home runs from his stat line, he pitched to a 2.80 ERA as a 19-year-old between A and A+. There’s something here and I would be adding in deeper leagues. Dana is a future SP3 with upside for more.”

For someone 6’4’’, Dana has a compact, athletic delivery that’s repeatable and has an easy loose arm action. He has a great mound presence and can get his fastball up to 95 while mixing in a pretty hellacious curveball and a good changeup. He’s someone I expect to climb into potential top 100 overall lists with a good 2024 showing.

Jeter Martinez (SEA)(18):

I ranked Jeter Martinez 57th as part of my top 100 pitching prospects. Here is what I wrote:

The youngest player in these rankings so far, Martinez has a great feel for his pitches at just 17 years old and I think he’s one of the most polished arms from the DSL last year. It’ll be interesting to see where Seattle has him start in 2024 as he’s still 17 years old as of this writing. Martinez is a must-add in deeper dynasty leagues and this ranking doesn’t do him justice. He’s this low because of the lack of volume he’s produced in professional ball so far. Next year he’s likely to rise a lot higher. Grab him now before someone else in your league does. Martinez profiles as a future frontline starter in the SP1/SP2 range with an obvious variance because of his age and level.

*Update: Martinez was invited to the Mariners minor league mini-camp which suggests he may be given an aggressive promotion to Low-A and that he’ll be stateside this coming year.

Like Tillero, Martinez may be the most polished DSL arm from last year with the most Major League pedigree to stick on as a starter.

Payton Martin (LAD)(19):

Martin finished 2023 43rd in TiltValue so he’s been on my radar for quite some time as he was on the leaderboard since May. Martin only threw 39.2 innings last year while racking up 48 strikeouts to just 15 walks — pitching to a 2.04 ERA at Low-A.

He has a solid arsenal featuring a 94-97 mph FB to go along with a curveball, slider, and changeup. He has command of all 4 pitches in his mix. It’s quite rare to see that from an 18-year-old and he makes it easy on himself because his delivery is repeatable and he’s extremely athletic and explosive on the mound. You can see his pitch-mix here:

**Credit to “Dodgers Prospects” on Youtube for the video**

I think Martin is going to be one of the more polished arms in the Dodgers organization sooner than later and he has a chance to climb fast. We’ll be hearing his name more often in 2024 and now is the time to buy.

Hayden Birdsong (SFG)(22):

I ranked Birdsong 47th as a part of my top 100 pitching prospects and admittedly I think I’m too low on him. Here is what I wrote:

“The name alone stands as an 80 grade as it sounds like it’s out of a Hunger Games novel. Birdsong is not a talent to be taken lightly though and he is one of the pitchers I see rising ranks in 2024. He finished 2023 ranked 11th in TiltValue posting a 14.83% SwStr% between A/A+/AA. In his final 13 starts between A+ and AA, Birdsong pitched to a 3.29 ERA with a K% of 34.8% and a BB% of 8.6%. Not bad at all. In fact, those numbers are borderline elite. His FIP in those final 13 games was 2.86 while registering a .195 AVG against. Birdsong is the real deal and a buy in deeper dynasty formats as he profiles as a mid-rotation starter - SP3 with upside for more.”

Birdsong is up to 96-97 on his fastball after experiencing some velocity increases within the Giants’ organization. He also has a pretty nasty 12-6 curve to pair with the heavy fastball. Birdsong was on my radar all of last year as he was on the TiltValue leaderboards for the majority of it. I would be watching his starts this year, likely at AA, to get a better understanding of what kind of pitcher you’re going to get and to see if he goes deeper into games.

Yordanny Monegro (BOS)(21):

Monegro’s assignment for 2024 will be an interesting thing to watch. He pitched in the CPX, A, and at A+ last year and is likely to reach AA at some point this year. I ranked him 28th as a part of my top 100 pitching prospects and here is what I wrote:

“Perhaps one of my favorite pitching prospects in the minors. He broke out last year starting the season in CPX and eventually reaching A+.

Monegro possesses a devastating curveball and has a fastball that touches mid to upper 90s at times. He’ll have to maintain that velocity on his fastball while also working on his changeup to give him a 3rd solid offering. He often works backwards tossing his breaking stuff before getting to his fastball which confounds hitters. Monegro was a TiltValue darling last year finishing the season ranked 7th. Here is the nasty Monegro curveball in action:”

“He’ll likely start the season in High-A but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him at AA at some point. Luis Perales and Wikelman Gonzalez are the two names who get all the attention in the Red Sox system but it’s Monegro in my opinion who will take the mantle as their top pitching prospect and somebody who climbs overall rankings in the coming year. Monegro is a wild-card and I see him as a future solid SP2/SP3 with some reliever risk.”

Monegro is my number one pitching prospect in the Red Sox organization, although it’s close now with David Sandlin on board. Get your shares of Monegro early because this type of poise and stuff are bound for success and he’ll likely see AA this year as a 21 year old.

Jose Corniell (TEX)(20):

I ranked Corniell 44th as part of my top 100 pitching prospects and here is what I wrote:

“There’s just too many arms in the Texas system that I’m high on. Corniell is one of them. Texas looks like a pitching factory for young arms especially at the lower levels of the minors.

Corniell posted a SwStr% of 15.92% between A and A+ while pitching to a sub 3.00 ERA in over 100 IP. Corniell is a must add in Dynasty formats before people pick up on him and figures to be a future mid rotation starter as an SP3/SP4 with upside for more.”

Corniell features a fastball that’s anywhere from 92-97 mph with a nice mid 80’s slider and a low to mid 80s changeup. In 2023, he also added a cutter to his repertoire which he pitched to great success. He’s not rostered heavily in many leagues so you should have the option to pick him up. He’s a definite sleeper in the Texas organization and I have been saying that since last year.

Josh Stephan (TEX)(22):

Here’s another Texas farmhand I’m high on. I ranked Stephan 38th as part of my top 100 pitching prospects and here is what I wrote:

“Stephan improved upon his K% and BB% from 2022 to 2023 going from A+ to AA. He lifted his K% to over 30% and lowered his BB% to under 5.5%. He won’t overpower anyone with his fastball as it sits low 90s but it’s his slider which does most of the damage. He gets most of his strikeouts via the slider and his changeup is another secondary which is showing flashes of being a potential plus pitch. He showed great command last year and can use all 3 of his pitches in any count. Stephan is a future SP3 middle of the rotation starter. There seems to be a decent floor here.”

You can see a bit of his pitch-mix here:

** Credit to “The Hub for Baseball Highlights 2” on youtube for the video**

Jose Fleury (HOU)(21):

Fleury is a pitcher with great vertical break on his fastball. The only thing is his fastball sits low 90s as of now. He’ll have to increase his velo and develop some of his secondaries to maintain being a starter. He has a plus changeup but he’ll need to work on some form of slider or curve to stay a starter, although those pitches do flash plus at times. There’s definite reliever risk with Fleury but he’s still so young that I don’t rule out any of the aforementioned developments. He gets up to 19”-20” IVB on his fastball which is elite and if he were to gain velocity on the pitch that would be a game-changer.

I ranked Fleury 56th as part of my top 100 pitching prospects and here’s what I wrote:

“Fleury flashes 4 potential plus pitches including his fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. Fleury finished 18th in the final TiltValue rankings for 2023 producing an excellent 16.48% SwStr%. He’s shown decent command in the minors and in 2023 at A ball he pitched to a 34.9% K % and a 12.1% BB%. He had a 2.7% BB% in 2022 in the DSL so even if he can cut his BB% to 7-8% in 2024, he’s going to be a factor and a must add in deeper dynasty leagues. He’s likely to start 2024 in A+ but I wont be surprised to see him reach AA at some point. Fleury is a must add and his development with Houston is a potential plus to have me profile him as a future SP3/SP4 with reliever risk.”

Jimmy Joyce (SEA)(25):

Jimmy Joyce reminds me of Liam Hendriks from the stretch. He has a fluid, athletic delivery and features a FB, CB, CH in his arsenal. The Mariners developmental team likes him a lot and he is close to the big leagues if an injury to anyone in the staff were to happen.

Between A+ and AA last year, Joyce pitched to a 2.57 ERA in 70 innings of work with 83 strikeouts. He had a 28.9% K rate and a 7.0% BB rate between both levels. Joyce is viewed highly in the organization but with the glut of arms in the big league rotation it’s hard to see him getting a crack as soon as opening day. I can see a trade or an opportunity if injury were to arise. He’s someone to keep an eye on as he’s part of the Seattle pitching machine.

Aidan Curry (TEX)(21):

I ranked Curry 36th as part of my top 100 pitching prospects and here is what I wrote:

“Curry is an underrated asset going into 2024. All he did in 2023 was put up a .162 AVG against in A ball to go with a 30.8% K % while pitching to a 2.30 ERA in 82 innings. His fastball has life and hits mid 90s while possessing a plus slider and a nice changeup with good arm action. Curry is going to shoot up rankings in 2024 and I want to be in on him early. He’s an add/buy for me without question. Curry is a future SP2/SP3 with considerable upside.”

Curry has helium going into 2024 and is one of my top pitching prospects outside the top 100 who I can see cracking that list with a good showing this year.

Henry Lalane (NYY)(19):

Lalane is a behemoth of a kid. He’s a 6’7’’ lefty who sits 93-96 mph with his fastball often touching 97. He has a good change up which sits 84-86 mph for good separation and slower slider which sits 77-79 mph.

Lalane used those three pitches at CPX last year and it resulted in a 14.12 K/9 — good for a 38.6% K rate. Even more impressive was his command. He had a 1.66 BB/9 — good for just a 4.5% BB rate. Overall he had a 34.1% K-BB% which is just absurd for someone at this stage of his development. Lalane should start in Low-A and if he can use his repertoire to repeat the same results he had at CPX, he’s going to climb into a few top 100 lists. He has that much potential.