Top 155 Dynasty Starting Pitchers 2024
We'll go over the top 155 Starting Pitchers for Dynasty Leagues
I’ll be updating this list through Spring Training and as injuries occur I’ll leave a footnote under the player’s name.
The rankings will stay the same once posted but I will leave notes as news starts to trickle in on certain players
I may expand the rankings before Opening Day and it’ll be updated under the same post. I’ll let you all know when updates occur on my Twitter account @Prospect_Tilt
Let’s get started on the top 155:
1) Spencer Strider (ATL)(25):
Strider pitched to a 3.86 ERA last year as he got bit by the home run ball and some bad batted ball luck — 1.08 HR/9 and a .319BABIP. If you look beneath the hood, Strider had a:
xERA: 3.09
FIP: 2.85
xFIP: 2.92
He continued his strikeout dominance while mitigating walks with a 13.55 K/9 and a 2.80 BB/9.
He posted a .215 xWOBA on his slider which he threw 34% of the time last year and a .326 xWOBA on his fastball which he threw 59% of the time. In 2022, he posted a .282 xWOBA on his fastball. I wouldn’t look at that as extreme regression given the batted ball luck and his ERA isn’t an entirely predictive force as you can’t use ERA year to year to predict, well…ERA. In 27 of his 32 starts last year, Strider posted a SwStr% greater than 15% and in 16 of his 32 starts, he had a SwStr% greater than 18%. He had 12 starts in which he had a 20% SwStr% or greater. Strider is a stud, he doesn’t have many bullets on his arm, and he’s only going to get better. I’d view him as a safe dynasty asset with obvious upside in every category.
Strider’s entering his age 25 season and is showing no signs of slowing down which makes him my number one ranked Dynasty starting pitcher.
2) Eury Pérez (MIA)(20):
Not many 20-year-olds come up to the Major Leagues and do what Eury Pérez did. He was a once-in-a-decade or two prospect and he’s looking to be all that was promised and more. Based on raw stuff and potential execution alone, he’s one of the most talented arms in the big leagues already. I ranked Eury 16th in my top 40 starting pitchers for 2024 and labeled him a breakout. Here is what I wrote:
“In 2023, Eury Pérez threw his curveball 14% of the time.
His Ideal-Contact-Rate (ICR%) was in the 94th percentile and his xAVG was at a .098 (95th percentile)
Pérez threw his changeup 10% of the time.
His ICR% was in the 99th percentile and his xAVG was at a .061 (99th percentile)
Absolutely dominant stuff from Pérez’s secondaries last year. And we all know what his fastball can do. His fastball, however, was hit the most last year — but the velocity and shape of his fastball will play as long as he locates better, which I look for him to do in 2024. The only concern will be how many innings Pérez will handle. He threw just over 125 IP between AA and the Majors last year so I’m expecting a bump to at least 150. Will the Marlins let him go deep into games to accrue Wins and/or Quality Starts? That’s another concern but he threw 80+ pitches in 13 of his 19 starts last year and if he comes out guns blazing, I don’t see the Marlins being able to contain the will of this superstar. He’s going to will himself into pitching every 5th day and the results will speak for themselves. I know the purpose of this post is just to highlight 2024 — but if I were ranking Eury in dynasty, he’d be my #2 or #3 overall pitcher.”
His age and precociousness have to be factored into future projections as he’s just 20 years old as of this writing. Eury is a force and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him #1 overall on this list for years to come, as soon as next year. I would be looking to draft Eury everywhere based on his ADP because frankly, the ceiling is the top arm in the big leagues.
Update: 3/20 — Eury was headed for an MRI and there is still no news regarding the results. The longer the delay, the more worried I am. I would still hold Eury in high regard for Dynasty formats, but if this is a TJ situation then it bumps him down a lot given this year and half of next year will be a wash.
3) Gerrit Cole (NYY)(33):
After chasing upside with Eury, we’re going to go with the tried and true safety net of Gerrit Cole. He’s going to come back down to earth a bit in his later years but he’s as safe an ace as you’re going to find.
The pros: Three straight seasons of 180 IP or more with good strikeout and walk numbers. The ERA will vary year over year but it looks like he’s a steady eddy who can maintain pitching below a 3.50 ERA for several more years while being the ace of your staff. Remember, winning now matters as much as speculation in Dynasty. He lowered his HR rate significantly from 2022 to 2023 but again that variance can likely just result in some batted ball luck.
The 4-seamer is just as strong as ever as he’s still averaging 96.7 mph on it and the 4-seamer generated a xWOBA of just .281 last year — good for 93rd percentile on all 4-seamers thrown. He’s a true horse as he threw at least 6 innings in 26 of his 33 starts and at least 5 innings in 31 of his 33 starts — so he’s extremely valuable in QS leagues.
The cons: His strikeout rate has gone down each of the last 2 years:
2021: K%: 33.5%
2022: K%: 32.4%
2023: K%: 27.0%
That’s a fairly steep decline from 2022 to 2023 so we’ll have to see if that trend continues. He’s still over 9K/9 and with the amount of innings he’s going to throw he’ll accumulate volume nonetheless. It’s hard to invest in a 33-year-old with this many bullets on his arm, but Cole has proven he’s an ace who can be trusted and he still has five years left on his massive $324M contract. Expect him to give you a good 3-5-year window of ace status if you’re in win-now contention.
*Update 3/13/24: Cole looks like he’ll miss opening day and he’s currently in line for an MRI on his throwing elbow. This bumps him down for dynasty and immediately scares me off in redraft*
Update 3/20: Cole is likely to be out for at least 2-3 months and isn’t expected to be back until at least the beginning of June. Plan and draft accordingly.
4) George Kirby (SEA)(26):
Kirby’s name is going to start becoming synonymous with elite control. Sort of how Maddux was in his generation. The new crop of pitchers who show elite BB rates will now be called mini-Kirby’s. And front offices will be looking for them. Not only are you getting elite control, but you’re getting a young ace who’s getting better. His fastball velocity rose from 95.4 to 96.2 in 2023 and a part of me thinks there’s more in the tank there. All five of his pitches generated an xWOBA of less than .300. He’s an elite pitcher who gets overlooked because he doesn’t strike enough batters out — 8.12K/9. In his final 78 innings pitches, Kirby had a 9.12 K/9 — perhaps an omen of things to come — and not the little creepy kid Damien from the movie. There’s enough volume to accrue strikeouts and I think he takes it a step further this year and gets more whiffs on his pitches. I can see a peak Kirby season eliciting a 10+K/9, maybe as soon as this year. Invest accordingly.
5) Corbin Burnes (BAL)(29):
Much like Cole, Burnes has had a declining K rate for the better part of three years now. Last year, he had a 25.5% K rate after having a K rate north of 30% the three years prior. What to make of it? I’ll get to his K rate later. Under the hood, everything looks fine and he’s still an ace. He’s still just 29. There’s plenty of runway left in Burnes’ career to have a resurgence. There’s the worry that the cutter isn’t as effective anymore as his xWOBA on the pitch has slightly gone up over the past two or three years, however, his curveball is eliciting better results as he posted a .176 xWOBA on it last year. Burnes was so good from 2020-2022 that his 2023 results look pedestrian and even though he was sitting a few ticks down on his velocity, his results weren’t bad at all. It’ll be hard to replicate peak Burnes but even the version we have now is a league ace.
Back to his K-rate — over his last 86.1 IP last year he had a K rate of 28.6% — and if that’s his new norm, he’s still one of the top pitchers in the league, despite not being the Burnes of old. And he’s still just 29 with a decent runway for production. Maybe the trade out of Milwaukee benefits him and he has a resurgence playing for a young playoff-bound Orioles team.
6) Pablo Lopez (MIN)(27):
Lopez gained a tick and a half on his 4-seamer last year and it resulted in his K-rate going from 23.6% to 29.2% from 2022 to 2023. He had an 11.2% SwStr% on the pitch in 2022 and he raised it to 17.2% in 2023. That’s badass stuff from Lopez. He’s got an entire repertoire outside of the 4-seamer, too. He had at least a 15% SwStr% on his 4-seamer, Sweeper, Curveball, and Changeup last year. Again, badass stuff from Lopez. This is all pointing to a budding ace as he has 4 plus pitches which all induce weak contact —and he’s still just 27 years old. Lopez is one of the up-and-coming aces in the league.
7) Luis Castillo (SEA)(31):
Excluding the Covid-shortened season, Castillo has produced five seasons in a row of at least 150 innings pitched with three of them being over 185 innings pitched. He’s as steady as they come. He’s got better as he’s aged, too. He’s lowered his walk rate the last two years to be in the 7% range while he’s still racking up strikeouts — 27.2% and 27.3% K rates the last two years. His 4-seamer last year was in the 95th percentile in xWOBA at .276 and his slider induced a 37.7% whiff rate. Castillo is one of my favorite pitchers to watch because when he’s on, he commands the pace and works fast, keeping hitters off balance. He’s a legitimate ace in this league and for years to come.
8) Zack Wheeler (PHI)(33):
Wheeler is still an elite pitcher posting an xWOBA of just .254 on his 4-seamer last year which induced a 31.4% whiff rate — both 97th percentile. The sinker, which he threw 18% of the time induced an xWOBA of just .280 and he even leaned on a newfound Sweeper which he threw 12% of the time posting an xWOBA of .242 and a whiff rate of 39.0%. Wheeler was a really good pitcher for the Mets and after he signed with Philadelphia for just 5 years - $118M (Yeah, the Mets brass — Brodie Van Wagenen at the time should’ve upped the offer) he’s been an even better pitcher. One of the best in the league. You can’t go wrong with Wheeler’s workload, rates, and relative health. He’s a steady, safe ace.
9) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)(25):
This may be too low on the list for Yamamoto but I want to see what he does in the Majors first before my next ranking comes out. He’s 25 years old and he landed a $325M contract to go to one of the best developmental organizations out there. He’s going to be an ace right away as he was an ace in Japan. Here are his numbers in Japan since 2021:
The mid-90s fastball and splitter are going to play well here in the States. Kodai Senga had a hell of a year last year and Yamamoto is supposed to be a tier or two ahead of him in terms of stuff, pedigree, and command, not to mention health. The Dodgers have an ace on their hands and if Yamamoto is falling to you in drafts I’d consider taking the opportunity to snag him as the reward is a 25-year-old who is a top 5 pitcher in this league.
10) Zac Gallen (ARI)(28):
These next two pitchers are ranked as a byproduct of their production, not their raw stuff. Gallen has done nothing but produce. Gallen’s 4-seamer is just 93-94 mph but it has an above-average vertical break and he effectively uses it to complement his curveball — which induced a 41.0% whiff rate — and his changeup — which induced a 31.4% whiff rate. Gallen is the ace of the Diamondbacks staff and isn’t a bad option to anchor your staff with as long as you’re including some more high-upside names to pair him with.
11) Kevin Gausman (TOR)(33):
Gausman has gone three straight years with at least 170 IP and he’s gotten better than the previous iteration of Kevin Gausman, three years prior. Gausman’s splitter is nasty and it works — producing a 43.0% whiff rate last year while posting a .232 xWOBA. There were pitchers I wanted to rank higher than Gausman because of their age but I have to include Gausman here at the 11 spot because if you’re in a win-now window, he’s an ace that can anchor your staff for a few more years — at an elite level.
Update 3/20 — Gausman is expected to be out until at least mid-April with a shoulder injury. Proceed with caution and target the other names around him.
12) Grayson Rodriguez (BAL)(24):
Rodriguez had a tale of two halves last year and luckily we can take the second half sample as a sign of things to come. Over his final 71.2 IP, Rodriguez pitched to a 2.26 ERA and a 2.75 FIP.
Coming into the league Rodriguez was seen as the next budding ace but like many, it took him some time to get adjusted. I’m telling you to look at Grayson’s second half as an omen of what’s to come. Just throw that first half out the window — Grayson has an elite fastball, often touching 100 mph, and has great separation on his changeup which sits at about 84-85 mph. It’s a stupendous combination. He’ll have to mix in his breakers a bit more and that’s an adjustment I think Baltimore is already working on him with. His first season in the bigs might’ve been a mixed bag, but his sophomore season will be the year he ascends to ace status.
13) Freddy Peralta (MIL)(27):
Fastball Freddy is the undoubted ace of the Milwaukee staff with Burnes out the door. Fastball Freddy threw his fastball 51% of the time and the pitch still induced a 29.2% whiff rate — good for 95th percentile on the pitch. Slider Freddy threw his slide piece 22% of the time and induced a 46.1% whiff rate — good for 91st percentile on the pitch. There’s also changeup and curveball Freddy who had a whiff rate of over 30% on both pitches. Peralta’s stuff is nasty, it’s just a matter of him staying on the field and racking up innings. He’s still just 27 with some of the most promise in the league. He’s an undoubted ace who threw 165 innings last year over 30 starts. He just needs to stay healthy and produce more seasons of at least 170 IP for him to be an effective dynasty asset, which I think he is and I think he will do just that.
14) Tyler Glasnow (LAD)(30):
Health concerns are the only reason Glasnow is this low. Or else he’d be in the same tier as Cole and Kirby. Think about that when you invest in Glasnow. If his price is low and his ADP isn’t indicative of his actual perceived potential then you may be getting a steal here. The question is, can he hold up?
15) Logan Webb (SFG)(27):
Logan Webb is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the league. He’s been an ace for two years now, throwing at least 190 IP in back-to-back seasons, while posting an ERA of 2.90 and 3.25, respectively. Webb only averages a shade under 93 mph on his fastball but he only throws his 4-seamer 4% of the time. I know it sounds ridiculous, but he’s a Changeup-Sinker-Slider type of guy. His changeup led to a .249 xWOBA last year while his slider led to a .280 xWOBA. He’s been an effective pitcher for the better part of three years now and he’s likely not to let up. He’s still only 27 years old and I think he’d make for a safe and reliable anchor for your staff. Much like Gallen, though, you’ll want to pair Webb with a higher upside arm because he’s just not getting it done in the K department. Maybe the next guy on the list.
16) Bobby Miller (LAD)(24):
Miller throws 100. He also pitched to a 3.76 ERA with an xERA of 3.45 in his rookie campaign. He has a solid floor based on just his fastball. And we’re not even close to seeing what the ceiling is yet. Being a part of the Dodgers organization bumps him up a few spots for me as I think they’ll develop his repertoire into one of a borderline ace. Year two is when Bobby Miller climbs into the upper echelon of dynasty pitchers to hold for dear life. I ranked Miller 17th and mentioned him in my breakouts section in my top 40 SP for 2024. Here is what I wrote:
“Bobby Miller throws hard — 99 mph average on his fastball last year. He threw it just 28% of the time last year and mixed in four other solid offerings. Miller is severely underrated, in my opinion, and 2024 will be his breakout year.
He has four legitimate offerings while tinkering with a sweeper to give him five — and he mixes them up well. I think the Dodgers make the most out of his repertoire to make him a top-three legitimate option on the Dodgers this year. His ADP isn’t indicative of how high I have him ranked, but it’s where I see him finishing the season.”
17) Cole Ragans (KCR)(26):
I ranked Cole Ragans 15th in my top SP for 2024 and here is what I wrote:
“Ragans broke out last year and isn’t an unknown at this point. He had a velocity uptick — averaging 96.6 mph on his FB — and finished the year with a 3.47 ERA. His xERA was 3.28 and his FIP was 3.19.
He has 5 legitimate offerings so let’s take a look at them all
The xAVG on his fastball was .190 (93rd percentile) and his xwOBA on the same pitch was .310 (92nd percentile). He threw the fastball 40% of the time. This led to disastrous results for hitters.
The xAVG on his changeup was .193 (81st percentile) and his xwOBA on the changeup was .240 —while the league average was .304. He threw the changeup 24% of the time, barely inducing any hard contact.
This leaves 3 more pitches in his offering that he’ll have to shake up — the cutter, the curveball, and the slider — which he threw 13%, 12%, and 10% of the time, respectively.
The cutter induced positive results for Ragans and he’ll continue to throw it, whereas the curveball he threw was his worst pitch.
Now let’s get to the slider. He threw his slider 10% of the time and his xAVG on the pitch was .173 (82nd percentile) and his xwOBA on the pitch was also .173 (95th percentile). It’s an elite offering and if he mixes it in at the same rate as he throws his fastball and changeup, then we’re looking at another positive leap from Ragans.”
18) Max Fried (ATL)(30):
Fried has quietly gone as one of the better pitchers in the league for the last four years. And I mean super quiet. The results speak for themselves. Here are his ERA and xERA over the last four years, including the Covid shortened 2020:
2020: ERA: 2.25 xERA: 2.86
2021: ERA: 3.04 xERA: 3.47
2022: ERA: 2.48 xERA: 2.85
2023: ERA: 2.55 xERA: 2.75
He’s been nothing short of brilliant and he’s used his curveball and changeup to great success in getting to these results. Fried’s curveball last year induced a 39.1% whiff rate and his changeup induced a 37.7% whiff rate. Fried’s going into his walk year as he’ll be a free agent next year and I’m expecting another low-key yet brilliant year from him — Something we can expect for the next several years as Fried gets overshadowed by Strider’s excellence in Atlanta. Maybe he goes somewhere else where he can be that ace.
19) Jesús Luzardo (MIA)(26):
A lefty who throws 97 mph and has bettered his command each of the last three years? Sign me up. Luzardo lowered his BB rate to 7.4% from 11.0% in 2021. I guess you can call Miami control freaks as the only variable here was him leaving Oakland, which we all know lacks constraints.
Luzardo’s slider is downright filthy as it induced a 51.8% whiff rate — good for the 96th percentile in the league. His changeup also induced a high whiff rate of 36.1%. We’re looking at a lefty who throws gas and has command of his breaking pitches which induce elite whiff rates. Luzardo may be way too low on this list, and I’d invest in him for dynasty purposes given his cost.