Pitching Prospects Outside the Top 100 to Target - Part 2

We'll go over 10 pitchers who are typically viewed as outside most top 100 lists but have a chance to ascend into legitimate targets

I went over 18 pitchers outside the top 100 to target in my first go around and you can read it here. Here are 10 other names to keep an eye on.

Alex Clemmey (CLE):

Clemmey is a pitcher from a renowned pitching factory. This time in Cleveland. I think Clemmey is too low in most rankings and I’ll say that with confidence. I can see Clemmey shooting up everyone’s rankings with a hype train that borders out of control by mid-summer once they see his arsenal and projectability. People will compare him to Chris Sale because he’s a tall, lanky, white guy and all hell will break loose when the comp is made.

Clemmey is a towering 6’6 205 lefty who sits mid-90s and can touch up to 98. Yet, there’s still more to fill out on his frame to give him some thickness. He also features a plus curveball that is an easy pitch for him to generate whiffs on. The command, like all young pitchers, is going to need some refinement, but that’s what the minors are all about. He’ll be developed properly in the Guardians system.

But back to the fastball — that’s the pitch that’s going to elevate Clemmey into elite status among pitching prospects as it has great characteristics to go with the velocity. The spin rate on his fastball has been north of 2700 RPM, which is elite, considering he was just 18 years old at the time, which makes for an even more palpable hype surrounding the kid. The kid also gets great extension and being a 6’6 lefty is only going to help him going forward. There’s no data on his extension yet, but a piece from “Covering the Corner” went over a list of pitchers who have an 80th percentile spin on their fastball and an 80th percentile extension. The list includes:

• Tyler Glasnow

• Eury Perez

• Zack Wheeler

• Jacob deGrom

• Michael Kopech

• Freddy Peralta

I’d say all but Kopech are top pitchers in the league and they’re all right-handed pitchers. This type of profile from a lefty doesn’t come around too often and I think we see 2024 as a breakout season from Clemmey as long as Cleveland doesn’t baby him around. If they do, the breakout will come in 2025 with everyone knowing his name and ready for the ascension.

Nolan McLean (NYM):

Nolan McLean was drafted as a pitcher out of Oklahoma State to the Baltimore Orioles in the third round of the 2022 draft but decided to return to college for his Junior year. The following year, he was drafted again in the third round as a two-way player but this time by the Mets. Can you believe that? The Mets picking up on the Orioles’ scraps when it comes to prospects. It’s a change in the guard and it’s something I’ve been saying for a while now. The Mets have a legitimate pitching factory on their hands and they knew exactly what they were doing when they drafted McLean as a “two-way” player.

Appease the kid all he wants when it comes to his dream of being White Ohtani, but the reality is that it’s just not likely. He’s going to stick as a pitcher and he’s one of the more unheralded arms out there going into this season. He has a heavy-riding fastball that touches 98-99 and can sit mid-90s. He’s athletic as all hell on the mound and uses his lower half to help generate velocity. Once his front leg is planted, he externally rotates and drives right through his hips to deliver the ball at a low angle.

Let’s get to his slider. During the Spring Breakout game that he pitched, he threw a slider that was 87 mph and had over 3280 RPM according to Statcast. That’s a legitimate outlier pitch — and an outlier pitch at any level, even the Major League level. It would put his slider among one of the best in baseball. The ball started on the inside part of the plate and ended up at the batter’s ankles. Even without Statcast, you could immediately gauge that this was a nasty offering. He got his slider/cutter up to about 90-91 at its hardest. Either way, the spin on this pitch is going to be the scary part. And I think we’re underrating him severely given what looks like an elite two-pitch pairing. While that gives him a lot of reliever risk, I think the stuff can play into being one of the more dominant relievers in the game.

At Oklahoma State, he was tasked with two jobs, both hitting and pitching, and he still had a 148 Stuff+ on his fastball and a 123 Stuff+ on his slider which was still showing 3000+ RPM levels of spin. His chase rate was 19.2%. His stuff was no secret and his falling to the third round was a steal, especially to an organization that’s going to maximize his offerings and develop him with Eric Jagers up his ass. Speaking of Eric Jagers and the Mets pitching lab, let’s get to the next name on this list.

Brandon Sproat (NYM):

I wrote about Sproat in Projecting the Future: Top 56 Pitching Prospects for 2025, and that was before his Spring Breakout performance. Here is what I wrote:

I’m going to go as far as to say that the Mets have a little pitching factory on their hands. They have another wave of arms coming up that is going to change the industry’s thoughts on the organization. Christian Scott is a University of Florida product the Mets developed and Brandon Sproat is going to be the next one.

Sproat has a mid to upper 90s fastball that sits 96-98 mph and he’s touched triple digits. He has a changeup that looks to be his most projectable plus breaking pitch to go along with an above-average slider. All the ingredients are there for Sproat to be an effective pitcher at the next level.

He has control but lacks command and Sproat is going to need to locate better if he wants to have success. Hitters will feast on a mid-90s fastball located middle-middle. That’s not a bad problem to have as it should be easy to develop his command and location on his pitches considering he does have solid control.

He’s going to be the next in line in this wave of arms the Mets have coming up which will have the industry in shock because they’ve built another pitching factory after going half a decade with no success.

Now let’s get to the Spring Breakout performance. First of all, it doesn’t add up. The Box Score says he threw 6 pitches with 2 strikeouts yet still got out of the full inning. Maybe he’s Superman and can just will his way through innings and outs without throwing a single pitch. Anyway, that’s what Spring baseball does — it has wonky numbers and isn’t always reliable. The pitch data on the other hand is another story.

Sproat threw 6 pitches and got 4 whiffs and he was up to 99 on the day. It’s hard to say he was sitting in a range considering he only threw 6 pitches but he was living 98-99. He didn’t get a chance to show his plus changeup and his above-average slider much but that’ll be evident this year when he starts in the minors. And trust me when I say this, but the kid can run it up to 101. That’s what put me onto him in the first place before the Spring Breakout game performance. His command looked sharp and he worked quickly. Sproat looks to be another Jagers and Mets pitching factory success story. He’s my pick in the organization to have a similar ascension to Christian Scott, both University of Florida products. Should I do it? Should I post another Mets arm in this piece? I think I’m going to do it. Let’s get to the next one.

Calvin Ziegler (NYM):

Ziegler was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft by the Mets and at the time it looked like he’d be the best or 2nd best pitching prospect in the system. He was derailed with injuries. He needed surgery to remove a bone spur from his right elbow and then later had a torn quad muscle which put his season on the shelf last year.

I posted about Ziegler a while back and it seemed like many people were out on him because the likes of Christian Scott, Mike Vasil, Dominic Hamel, Blake Tidwell, and the rest look like they’re on their way up soon. That doesn’t mean Ziegler should be an afterthought. He was drafted as a 2nd rounder for a reason and he’s still just 21 years old.

Let’s get to the stuff. Ziegler features a fastball-curveball combination and offers a splitter that he’s been working on as a true out-pitch. The fastball sits mid-90s and the curveball is a low 80s breaker with good depth. He pitched 46.2 innings in 2022 at low-A and repeated low-A to start 2023 where he pitched just 1 inning before going down with the injuries. Over 17 starts in his minor league career, he has a 36.1% K rate but a 17.3% walk rate. He’s pitched to a .159 Avg. against in those 47.2 innings and it isn’t hard to see why.

While the command is going to need work over larger samples, Ziegler’s spring debut offered a glimpse of a legitimate power pitcher with secondary offerings. His fastball had a borderline elite shape to it as he averaged 96.1 mph on his 4-seamer which had 18.8” of induced Vertical Break, or iVB. He’s getting a lot of ride on that thing and more than initially thought. His curveball also graded out well, although we didn’t get to see it enough. Ziegler has a lot to prove in 2024 but a lot of it will be staying healthy and building up a workload. The stuff is going to play and this year is crucial for his development.

Ziegler is built Ford tough. He’s a thick kid and looks like an F-150 out there, especially in his lower half. He put in the work in the offseason to add to his frame as he was leaner earlier on. I’m starting to really bet on pitchers who don’t skip leg day. And that brings us to our next arm.

Blake Wolters (KCR):

I wrote about Wolters in Projecting the Future: Top 56 Pitching Prospects for 2025 and ranked him 21st. Here is what I wrote:

Wolters sat low-90s his Junior year of High School. The following year he was one of the most heralded prep arms heading into the draft as he sat mid-90s, often touching 98-99. Reports are that he added strength in the offseason leading up to his Senior year. In other words, he probably got his squat up to 405 and added thickness because of it.

He’s listed at 6’4 215 and is a former basketball player who didn’t start pitching until three years ago. I love that profile. He’s already this good and is a multi-sport athlete with barely any bullets on his young arm. He has two different approaches when it comes to his slider, a typical sharp slider and more of a slurve. They’re both out pitches for the kid and the SAT wunderkind is now meticulously crafting a changeup.

Like Noble Meyer, this kid is probably a nerd and that’s exactly who I want to bet on. I bet on him mastering a changeup and having it blossom into a true third out-pitch. I bet on him getting his squat up to 495 and then pumping triple-digits by mid-season which sets off a motion of hype and energy that would rival a nuclear reactor. Writing this is getting me excited about Wolters’ future and he’s one of my favorite arms going into 2024 as a heavy sleeper to rise in rankings come 2025.

Blake Wolters has been touching triple digits in Royals Camp which confirms my call and actually accelerates the timeline as I thought it’d be by midseason after he was fully ramped up. He will arguably be the Royals’ top prospect by mid-season or end of season and I expect him to climb fast. Kansas City moved David Sandlin, who I wrote about in my other piece titled, 18 Pitchers Outside the Top 100 to Target. Sandlin is another triple-digit fireballer, although that came later in his progression. It would’ve been nice to see both of them develop in the same system, but you can’t always have what you want even if it’s probably what Kansas City needed.

Justin Wrobleski (LAD):

Don’t bet against the Dodgers pitching factory. And that’s what I won’t do when it comes to Wrobleski. Also, don’t bet against post-TJ velocity spikes. That’s what Wrobleski experienced. He went from sitting 89-91 pre-TJ to sitting 93-95 last year, often averaging 95 mph as the year went on to end the season. Is there more in the tank for another uptick? That’ll be known in 2024 as he likely starts the year in AA after pitching over 100 innings in High-A last year.

Wrobleski features a mid-90s fastball to go with three or four other pitches. He’s ditched the curveball usage in favor of a slider and a cutter which he’s been using with more frequency. The questions that remain are will the velocity spike maintain this year and if they do, does he have another gear for yet another uptick? The arsenal is great and the fact that he’s a newfound control freak has me intrigued about his future. He lowered his walk rate from 16.7% to 8.3% from 2022 to 2023. He’s not the most exciting Dodgers arm for me, but he’s an easy SP given the arsenal and command.

Let’s talk about his Spring Breakout performance. He went 2 innings allowing 1 hit and no walks while striking out 4. He looked composed and was in a groove the entire outing. Three of his four strikeouts came on swings & misses with one backward K. He even pulled a rabbit out of his hat making an athletic play on defense. There was a broken bat bleeder to the right side of the infield, while Wrobleski was leaning towards the third base side and he quickly adjusted, slid, and picked up the ball barehanded before tossing it to first for the out. And they say pitchers aren’t athletes. Go confront Bartolo about that and his nonchalant behind-the-back flip.

Travis Sykora (WAS):

Sykora is the definition of a fireballer. He sits 96-98 and can touch triple digits as a teenager. He’s built like a brick shit-house or in other words, rotund. At 6’6 235, he has all the makings of a power pitcher. The command will be an issue right now but it’s something that needs to be refined down the line for him to succeed. His mechanics need to be more repeatable, but that’s not too big of an issue as he does repeat them well enough for someone so big and so young. He’ll find a delivery that works for him and allows him to repeat in sync.

He’s very much upper half for someone who can use his big lower half to elicit more velocity. Once he learns to utilize his lower half better we’re going to be seeing a lot more 100-101 out of him. At least that’s my belief.

Sykora’s slider is a solid to above-average offering sitting mid-80s. The pairing of that heavy fastball and at times nasty slider is what has me excited about his future. Add that to the split-change which sits mid-80s that he offers which can flash plus at times and he has all the makings of an SP who can be effective in the big leagues.

His delivery right now is sort of rock-a-bye-baby as he cradles the ball in his mitt and does a back-and-forth weave before exploding towards the plate. If it works for him then I guess that’s fine. I wonder if the Nationals try and refine it so there are fewer moving parts in the future, but for now, it’s been effective and it’s gotten him to be drafted in the third round as a high-upside teenage arm. The refinement in his delivery will only help improve his command and I think we see it sooner than later. Look out for Sykora in 2024 as he makes his pro debut.

Trace Bright (BAL):

Trace Bright was 6th in the minor leagues in K/9 among pitchers with at least 80 innings and 5 games started with a 13.27 K/9. He is easily overlooked, although the Spring Breakout performance might be putting him on people’s radars.

He got three innings of work, allowing 1 run and striking out 4 batters. He had a 5 pitch mix which mostly included a fastball, curveball, and changeup, while he mixed in a cutter and sinker. He sat 94-96 on the night and every pitch he threw flashed plus according to Stuff+ models. Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott get a lot of the shine as the top pitching prospects in the Orioles system, but Bright might be up there with them.

He has what looks like a three-quarter release and looks like he gets great extension. He’s listed as the 17th prospect in the Orioles system according to MLB pipeline and if you know me by now then you know my thoughts on those rankings systems. They’re rarely updated and don’t account for much other than initial scouting reports. Bright had the results last year as he pitched to a 3.97 ERA and a 3.85 xFIP to go with a 33.9% K rate. He did have a 12.9% walk rate which he’ll have to work on as he ascends levels. I want to see Bright turn into a control freak and get that sub-9 % walk rate this year.

Michael Arias (CHC):

Arias is the type of high-variance arm I love. He’s a converted position player and started 22 games between A and A+ last year. He absolutely dominated A ball with a mid-90s fastball that can touch the upper 90s, a nasty slider, and a changeup that has so much arm side run on it that I don’t know how much feel for it he has yet. But all the options are potential plus pitches. You can see the changeup for yourself:

Command was an issue last year but it was the first time he’d thrown more than 25 innings in a single season. He pitched 81.1 innings last year and is likely to pass the 100-inning mark this year. There is definite reliever risk here but I’m giving Arias a chance to prove that he’s a viable starter with elite offerings in 2024. If there’s any improvement in his walk rate, Michael Arias is going to be the next big pitcher that Cubs fans on Twitter are going to clamor over by mid-season. The stuff is that good.

He’s comically listed at 6’0 155 which just isn’t possible. He’s at least 175-180, maybe more depending on how his offseason went. Arias is listed on the 40-man roster which leads me to believe he’s viewed as a reliever at the big league level, at least for this year. He can sway minds with calculated, concerted efforts as a starter in 2024, showing he can be more efficient deeper into outings.

Jun-Seok Shim (PIT):

Here is another arm from the Pittsburgh pitching factory assembly line that doesn’t get talked about enough. Shim only pitched 8 innings in Complex Ball last year as he racked up 13 strikeouts. His longest outing was 4 innings in which he rang up 8 batters.

Shim has major helium going into this year and the balloon may be fully inflated by mid-season this year. Don’t be scared off by the comps to Chan Ho Park. Shim is a middle-to-top-of-the-rotation potential arm or an elite late-game reliever. He has a fastball that can regularly touch triple digits and a decent curveball to go with it. I’m going out on a limb and will say Shim will be a borderline top-100 arm by the end of this season.

I think he will be on people’s radars this year after touching 99-100 a few times with his fastball and that will elevate him with some of the top arms from the 2022 draft class. The stuff and the metrics that Shim will post will have people scrambling and ranking him as high as possible.