Notable Performances: April 25th

Today, rather than going over a few Player Breakdowns with video, I’ll go over some notable performances from both the offensive and pitching sides yesterday. Apologies in advance — life got in the way yesterday and I didn’t have time to scour video and compile anything in time for it to be a valuable breakdown this morning. So I’ll make today’s edition free for everybody as it will just be a rundown of yesterday’s action.

Pitching:

Dom Hamel (NYM) - AAA: 5.1 IP 1H 0ER 2BB 8K

Hamel had everything working in this one and even made some velocity gains and iVB gains from his last start. He averaged 93.2 mph on his fastball which had an iVB of 19.5 inches. In his last three starts, Hamel is now pitching to a 2.30 ERA with a 38.7% K rate and an 8.1% Walk rate over 15.2 innings. Hamel is an arm the Mets could use this year and for my money, he’s the next in line behind Christian Scott on the assembly line inside Jagers & company’s factory.

Paul Skenes (PIT) - AAA: 4.1IP 5H 1ER 1BB 7K

Skenes threw 71 pitches in this outing and he gave up his first earned run of the season. It’s been crazy stuff. What Skenes has been doing is off the charts in terms of limiting run production and the stuff is just ridiculous — regardless of what anyone says about his fastball shape — like I said this offseason. The stuff will play and it will play now. Just be patient and wait until May for him to be up with the Pirates.

Will Warren (NYY) - AAA: 6IP 2H 1ER 1BB 6K

Will Warren and Jared Jones were both targets of mine before Spring Training started as mentioned in one of my “SP Targets” posts. Jared Jones is in the big leagues and is looking like one of the top-tier arms in the league, meanwhile, Will Warren has been cruising over his last 4 AAA starts. He got off to a rough go in his first start, but I’m attributing that to the cold conditions in Buffalo shortly after a hot spring in Florida. In his last 4 starts, Warren has a 2.14 ERA and a .153 Avg. Against to go with a 32.5% K Rate and a 7.5% Walk Rate. I think Warren is a solid stash right now.

Jaden Hamm (DET) - High-A: 5IP 5H 2ER 0BB 5K

I mentioned Hamm in my pitchers to target outside the top 100 post back on February 19th. Here is what I wrote:

Hamm was drafted 143rd overall in the 2023 draft to the Detroit Tigers. His fastball is usually 92-95 from an over-the-top slot with a ton of carry. He averaged 93.3 mph on his fastball last year with an IVB of 19.6”. The fastball alone induced a 20.7% SwStr% for him. He also has a changeup and a good curveball with good depth. The breaking stuff will be his bread and butter but the fastball with the vertical break can be a difference-maker to pair with the breaking stuff.

So far in his professional career, Hamm has a 0.00 ERA. Before you get too excited, he’s pitched just 11 innings. Okay, now relax. He won’t be putting up zeros forever — but it was a good debut for the 5th rounder. He’s a potential pop-up prospect this year and I hope the Tigers are aggressive with him and have him start the year in High-A so that we get a better understanding of how the stuff will play. As of now, he’s someone to keep tabs on and a name to know. Bookmark him, highlight him, write him down in your notepad — whichever your preference. Just know that you’ll hear his name more often as he navigates through the minors.

Hamm is making me look good, I’ll admit. Through 5 starts, Hamm has a 37.9% K Rate to go with a 1.5% Walk Rate. He’s an absolute control freak. And we love those around here. Pair that with the stuff that he’s brought over from Low-A to High-A and the results he’s pitching to and we have an obvious breakout arm on our hands here.

Ty Madden (DET) - AA: 5IP 3H 0ER 1BB 7K

I ranked Madden fairly low in my top 100 pitching prospects to start the season. I had him ranked 50th. I guess that’s either low or high depending on who you ask. I have some names I’m higher on and lower on but let’s just say I’m middling ground on Madden. Here’s what I wrote in January:

Madden is another Tigers farm hand who repeated AA in 2023 after showing good results in 2022. Last year he threw 118 innings and pitched to a 3.43 ERA while posting a K% of 29.7% and a BB% of 10.2%. If he can lower his BB% to the range of 7-8% as he did in 2022, then we’re looking at another potential starter for the Tigers. Although I think Flores is a bit better given his higher ceiling, Madden seems to have a decent floor and has the workload built up to be ready for the Majors in 2024. Madden is a mid-to-back end rotation starter as an SP3/SP4 with the potential for more.

I’m not sure when the Tigers give Madden a shot because it’s fairly crowded with Matt Manning on the shuttle and Jackson Jobe on his way up by mid-season. There’s also Wilmer Flores, but I suspect they’re getting him ready for pen duties.

Emmett Olson (MIA) - Low-A: 6IP 3H 0ER 0BB 10K

Is Emmett Olson the name to watch on that Jupiter team? We have Noble Meyer and Thomas White but it’s been Olson who’s pitched to the best results. Let’s take a look at the stuff from last night from the lefty.

He threw his 4-seamer 39 times (47%) and averaged 91.2 mph with 18.2 inches of iVB

He threw his slider 27 times (32.5%) and it looked as if it had no defining characteristics of run or ride to it but it did generate an 80% chase and a 59.1% whiff.

He led all of Low-A in whiffs last night with 20. The 4th rounder from last year’s draft to Miami might just be a diamond in the rough — we’ll need some more looks.

I’ll have to catch Olson’s next start and see it live. Through three starts, he’s yet to allow an earned run and is running a 32.2% K rate to go with a 6.8% Walk rate. I’m intrigued. One offseason of Velo gains and that fastball may be an outlier. Let’s see what the future holds for Olson, but before we jump the proverbial gun, I want to see what he currently is first. He’s someone to monitor.

Hunter Barco (PIT) - High-A: 4IP 4H 2ER 2BB 7K

Barco came into last night’s start ranked 16th in TiltValue. So if you got the chance to scour through the datasheets I sent out on Tuesday, you’d be familiar with his name. Barco is a left-hander who is pitching to a 1.80 ERA through 4 starts. He’s posting a 35% K rate to go with an 8.3% Walk rate and a 14% SwStr%. It’s interesting stuff and he’s someone on my early monitor list.

Hitters:

Gabriel Rincones Jr. (PHI) - AA: 2-for-4 with a HR and an SB

Rincones Jr. was mentioned as my top-hitting prospect to target outside the top 100 back in February. Here is what I wrote:

Rincones Jr. hits the ball hard. — extremely hard. He posted a 90th percentile EV of 107.3 mph — that’s Machado/Soto territory — and his max exit velocity was 113.3 mph.

He split time between A and A+ last year posting a wRC+ of 117. He’s not hitting a ton of homers yet as he’ll need to launch at a better angle to make the most of his elite EV numbers, which is certainly possible as he develops. His Z-contact% was 80.3% at A ball and was 72.2% at A+. His chase rates were 24.8% and 29.1%, respectively — good numbers. It’s led to a high discrepancy between his average and OBP which should continue. There’s a lot to like with Rincones’ potential peak as the power numbers haven’t displayed as they should. I think there’s a potential breakout this year and we see more homers from him. He’s graded low for speed but managed to steal 32 bases last year — I mentioned in another post of mine how scouting grades for speed/base running can be a bit wonky and unreliable. The speed is real and he’s shown a willingness to run (84% success rate). He’s old for his level but he’ll be at AA soon where we’ll get a better idea if his chase rates remain low and if he makes adjustments to his launch angle to make better use of his elite EVs. There’s big power potential in the bat and it’s worth a shot to add him in deeper leagues.

The sneaky speed is definitely showing up and outpacing scouting grades as I mentioned above — and the power is without doubt. He’s now slashing .300/.417/.600 with 4 homers and 4 steals through 13 games (60PA). Go get your Rincones shares before it’s too late.

Jeral Perez (LAD) - Low-A: 2-for-4 with a HR

On a Low-A team which also features Zyhir Hope and Josue De Paula, (who got hurt yesterday, let’s hope it’s not too bad) it’s Jeral Perez who seems to be the breakout. I ranked him 44th in my Projecting the Future series which predicted the top 61 Hitting Prospects for 2025. I was incredibly high on Perez last year and heading into this season and now I’m only falling victim to confirmation bias as I see everyone else jumping on the hype train. Here is what I wrote about Perez in the offseason:

Perez is a speculative add for anyone who loves young players who excelled in the DSL or CPX.

Projectable frame for a 19-year-old, listed at 6’0 180 — even before filling out — he hit 11 HR in 53 Complex games last year. He slashed: .257/.389/.503 while running a BB rate of 16.3% and a K rate of 23.1%.

He got promoted to A ball for a 7-game stint to end the season and what was most promising is that he ran similar BB and K rates as he did in CPX (18.5% / 22.2%). There’s a power/speed combination in his profile and the power might be the most enticing to speculate on. He’ll likely start 2024 in A ball and given a full season’s worth of at-bats, we’re looking at double-digit home runs and double-digit stolen bases to go with a .200+ ISO. If he pulls that off, the 19-year-old’s stock is going to skyrocket this time next year. Add accordingly.

Through 15 games, Perez is slashing .339/.479/.643 with 4 homers and 5 doubles. He has more walks than he has strikeouts (13 to 12) and looks to be hitting his projection physically as he doesn’t look like he’s only 179 lbs. He’s a priority add for me and someone who, as I mentioned earlier, can skyrocket these rankings by next year — in fact — he might be ranked accordingly in my midseason ranks.

Marcelo Mayer (BOS) - AA: 3-for-4 with a HR and a double

This was my prediction on Mayer before the season started:

I think he’s well on his way there and I think we all had a bit of prospect fatigue with Mayer. He’s a solid bat and he’s going to produce when healthy.

Joey Loperfido (HOU) - AAA: 3-for-5 with 2HR

Loperfido now has 12 homers in 21 games at AAA and he’s firmly on call-up watch.

Alfredo Duno (CIN) - Low-A: 2-for-3 with a HR

Duno looks so much like a hybrid between Salvador Perez body-wise and Juan Gonzalez swing-wise that it’s hard to be low on him. The power is obviously there and he’s showing it this year with his .239 ISO. He was one of the many players I highlighted in my DSL/CPX Targets & Standouts series and here is what I wrote:

Duno will be a Catcher at the next level but didn’t play any defense last year because he was showing some discomfort in his throwing arm before the season started. The Reds utilized him as a DH for all 45 games he played in the DSL. He has good arm strength and can likely stick at Catcher long-term but his calling card is going to be his bat and his plus power.

Duno already has a big frame and he’s listed at 6’2 210. He’s a big kid and he’ll be 18 years old to start 2024. In 2023, he slashed: .303/.451/.493 with 6 homers and 6 steals. He’s running right now but that’ll likely be off the table as he matures and the speed element of his game isn’t a factor anymore. The plate approach was solid as he walked nearly as much as he struck out last year. The plus power he brings to the table is evident as he’s had EVs of 110+ mph as a 17-year-old. And that number is only going to go up as he matures.

After watching some film on Duno, I can’t help but see a little Juan Gonzalez in his swing, as he cocks back with his back arm, leaves his back elbow up, has a slight foot tap, and then explodes through the zone. All in all, It’s a compact operation as he has a great feel for his body and the plate, and the results are going to be explosive as he navigates further up the minors. I’d be targeting Duno in deeper leagues and he’s one of the more intriguing prospects to monitor this year. Cincinnati has a horde of them.

Duno is a priority add in deeper leagues and is getting to the point where he may need to be monitored in shallower formats.

Yanquiel Fernandez (COL) - AA: 2-for-4 with a HR

Fernandez has raised his walk rate by 5 points and lowered his K rate by over 10 points in the early going. He’s striking out at only a 22.2% clip and this baby Yordan has power potential for days. I love what I’m seeing from Yanquiel in the early going. If he keeps these gains in plate approach we’re looking at a top 50 prospect overall. The power will come.

Samuel Zavala (CWS) - High-A: 2-for-5 with a triple, a double, and a stolen base.

Zavala has had some good swings in the early going and he’s lowered his K rate 12 points from last year and sits at a 21.6% K rate so far. There may be a bit of fatigue on Zavala which is crazy to say about a 19-year-old, but he’s an advanced hitter and the swing looks incredible at times. I wouldn’t be out on Sammy Zavala just yet.

Moises Ballesteros (CHC) - AA: 2-for-4 with a HR

Here’s what I had to say about Ballesteros before the season started:

While short and stocky (think Alejandro Kirk), Ballesteros has a good hit tool and a really good raw power profile. The question is will the raw power translate to in-game power once he’s in the big leagues? I’m not going to bet against him as he was just 19 years old during the 2023 season which saw him play at 3 different levels (A,A+,AA).

The fact that he reached AA is impressive in and of itself, but I’ll stick to his numbers at A and A + which are still great levels for a 19-year-old to be at. He slashed .274/.394/.457 with 8 Home Runs in 56 games. He played another 56 games in A+, slashing: .300/.364/..463 while adding another 6 Home Runs. His BB% went down from nearly 17% to nearly 10% and his K% went up from 12.4% to 19.5%.

Is this cause for sounding an alarm? No. But it’s worth noting. He’s still young, and I love the raw power and if he starts 2024 in AA, he’s someone I’m going to be keeping an eye on to see how that power displays.

So far, Ballesteros is posting a .286 ISO and a 178 wRC+ to go with 3 homers in just 11 games. More importantly, he’s walking at a 14.3% clip (4.5% last year) and striking out at just a 9.5% clip (13.6% last year). Ballesteros is a name to keep an eye on and despite the size, I think he’s worth adding in some deeper leagues.