10 Hitting Prospects outside the top 100 to Target

I'll break down 10 hitting prospects who I think are either being overlooked or can make the leap into the top 100 in 2024

Gabriel Rincones Jr. (PHI)(22):

Rincones Jr hits the ball hard. — extremely hard. He posted a 90th percentile EV of 107.3 mph — that’s Machado/Soto territory — and his max exit velocity was 113.3 mph.

He split time between A and A+ last year posting a wRC+ of 117. He’s not hitting a ton of homers yet as he’ll need to launch at a better angle to make the most of his elite EV numbers, which is certainly possible as he develops. His Z-contact% was 80.3% at A ball and was 72.2% at A+. His chase rates were 24.8% and 29.1%, respectively — good numbers. It’s led to a high discrepancy between his average and OBP which should continue. There’s a lot to like with Rincones’ potential peak as the power numbers haven’t displayed as they should. I think there’s a potential breakout this year and we see more homers from him. He’s graded low for speed but managed to steal 32 bases last year — I mentioned in another post of mine how scouting grades for speed/base running can be a bit wonky and unreliable. The speed is real and he’s shown a willingness to run (84% success rate). He’s old for his level but he’ll be at AA soon where we’ll get a better idea if his chase rates remain low and if he makes adjustments to his launch angle to make better use of his elite EVs. There’s big power potential in the bat and it’s worth a shot to add him in deeper leagues.

Agustin Ramirez (NYY)(22):

Ramirez went through three levels last year (A, A+, AA) and slashed: .271/.364/.455. Most of his damage was done at A and A+ which likely means he’ll be starting the year off at AA.

Between A and A+, Ramirez slashed: .297/.399/.517 for a 147 wRC+ and a .220 ISO. He hits the ball hard as evidenced by his 107.4 mph 90th percentile EV. In Low-A, he posted an 83.8% z-contact with just a 25.6% chase rate and walked more than he struck out. In High-A, he posted an 82.3% z-contact while chasing at a 35.8% clip. His contact on pitches out of the zone was an absurdly high 79.2% which all led to a .548 wOBACON. In short, Ramirez is being tremendously undervalued and overlooked. He has all the tools and he absolutely raked between those two levels. 2024 will be a good test as he repeats AA — hoping for the same success he had at both Low-A and High-A.

Mac Horvath (BAL)(22):

I wrote about Horvath in both my top 75 OF prospect rankings and my top 25 3B prospect rankings. Here is what I wrote:

“If I had to bet which player ranked outside the top 200 will be included in the top 100 (maybe even the top 50) next year, I’d bet on it being Mac Horvath. This kid was an absolute steal at 53rd overall to no other than the Baltimore Orioles. Another stud in the making for an organization already loaded with talent.

Horvath hit 24 home runs and stole 25 bases while slugging .711 in 60 games at UNC last year. He’s a dual-threat Corner infielder with legitimate pop.

In his first taste of affiliated pro ball, Horvath hit 5 homers and stole 14 bags in just 22 games while posting an OPS of over 1.000. He had a 185 wRC+ and a .282 ISO while posting a BB rate right around 20% and a K rate around 26%.

At Low-A, Horvath ran an 81% Z-Contact rate with just a 27.6% chase rate.

At High-A, Horvath ran a 66.7% Z-Contact rate while increasing his chase rate to 30.8%. This came on just 99 pitches worth of data so the zone contact isn’t a worry for me yet at the High-A level, considering when he did make contact he did damage, posting an absurd .563 wOBACON.

In short, go add him.”

Yorfran Medina (LAD)(19):

The Dodgers are loaded in the lower minors. There’s Eduardo Quintero. There’s Joendry Vargas. There’s Thayron Liranzo. There’s Josue De Paula. And now there’s Yorfran Medina. Absolute helium. Add now before the name takes off with a good showing in 2024:

All he did was slash: .270/.538/.667 for a wRC+ of 204 and a .397 ISO. He hit 5 homers in 32 games at DSL. He already has a solid frame at 6’4 195 and can project beyond that since he’s so young. He had the highest HitTilt+ among players 18 and younger who played in either DSL or CPX or both — by a wide margin.

Your eyes aren’t deceiving you. He really put up those numbers while repeating DSL. Coming stateside will be the big test in evaluating his perceived value, but I am going to get in early.

Luke Keaschall (MIN)(21):

I wrote about Keaschall in my top 25 2B Prospect rankings and here is what I wrote:

“Keaschall played just 28 games above rookie ball, debuting last year in CPX — and then moving on to A and A+ for his 28-game sample.

Between A and A+, Keaschall slashed: .298/.406/.500 with a 146 wRC+. He held a BB rate of 13.3% and a K rate of 18.0%. Really promising stuff — and Keaschall is another name that I’m probably a bit too low on heading into 2024. But remember at this point the difference in rankings is razor thin and mostly based on personal preference. I could’ve ranked Keaschall as high as 10, maybe higher — because I love his profile and I see him posting another 140+ wRC+ season in 2024 as a 21-year-old. We’re also getting a decent power tool and some plus speed to go with it. Keaschall is a name that should be on your radars heading into this year if he isn’t already.”

Keaschall showed tremendous metrics at the plate at Low-A — 85.6% z-contact with just a 22.6% chase rate. He had a 32.7% SwSpot% and a 29.1% HardHit%. At High-A he maintained his z-contact at 84.4% while showing there’s not much swing-and-miss to his game.

Dylan Beavers (BAL)(22):

Beavers split time between A+ and AA last year, putting up 35 doubles, 11 homers, and 27 steals in 122 games. He slashed: .289/.383/.468 — good for a 133 wRC+.

His hit tool is graded at a 30/40 on Fangraphs but both the results and the underlying data suggest there’s much more here.

In High-A, Beavers posted a Zone Contact% of 82.3% while his chase rate was just 27.7%. When he did chase, he made contact — evidenced by his upper percentile 75.6% O-Contact%.

In AA, Beavers posted a Zone Contact% of 77.4% while his chase rate rose to 39.5%. Again, when he did chase, he made contact — evidenced by his 77% O-Contact.

The increase in his chase rate isn’t an abnormal thing to see as we just saw with Clase’s numbers as he ascended to AA. It takes time for most players to get adjusted to upper-minors pitching and Beavers maintaining his borderline-elite contact percentage on pitches outside the zone shows that he has excellent bat-to-ball skills. Beavers, much like Horvath in the same organization, will rise next year with a good showing at AA. I’d get in now, as there’s not much hype on Beavers.

Blake Dunn (CIN)(25):

Before you crucify me for including a 24-year-old who started at A+ last year and finished at AA, hear me out. Blake Dunn rakes — and Blake Dunn runs. He does it all. He’s criminally underrated in prospect circles and is another asset in a loaded crop of talent for the Cincinnati Reds.

He started at A+ and slashed: .278/.411/.460 with 8 homers and 19 steals in 47 games. Good for a 149 wRC+.

He then finished the season at AA where he slashed: .332/.433/.556 with 15 homers and 35 steals in 77 games. Good for a 163 wRC+ — He had a .514 wOBACON at the level which shows his elite production when he puts the ball in play.

His season totals come out to 23 homers and 54 steals in 126 games. He kept his K rate in check at just 23.4% while displaying a rare combination of power and speed. If this is the upside we’re looking at when it comes to Dunn then he’s going to be an absolute steal wherever you get him and for however much you acquire him.

He has a good frame and swing to maintain these power numbers and his speed at his size is something you don’t see often. I mean, he stole 54 bases and was caught only 7 times for an 89% success rate.

Dunn will be 25 to start 2024 and while older and more overlooked than most of his cohorts, he has a chance to make an impact for the Reds as early as this year. I’m not sure what his ceiling is once he faces big-league pitching, but he seems to bring a rare blend of power and speed at a price not nearly indicative of his potential. I’d be looking to take a flier on Dunn and hope he’s a late bloomer — it can’t hurt.

Andrew Cossetti (MIN)(24):

I wrote about Cossetti in my top 25 Dynasty Catcher Prospect rankings and here is what I wrote:

He mashed in college, at one point hitting 26 HR in a 53-game span in 2021, and he’s mashed in the lower minors. He’s a bit on the older side as he’ll be 24 on opening day but he didn’t really start playing pro ball until last year (1 GP in 2022 at CPX).

In 2023, Cossetti slashed: .287/.426/.534 to go with a .248 ISO and a 163 wRC+ while hitting 15 homers in 95 games between A and A+.

His zone-contact is slightly concerning as it was 76.6% at Low-A and 70.2% at High-A. His chase rate was just 25.9% at High-A and while there’s some swing-and-miss to his game I think the power is going to continue to show. His 90th percentile EV is 104.8 to go with an 8% Barrel rate so the power should play

I think he’s proven that he’s ready to leap to AA where I think he’ll continue to mash. This is one of my deeper dynasty buys at the Catcher position but since I’m so high on him I had no choice but to put him up to 7th, ahead of some more notable names — finishing 17th in the final HitTilt+ rankings for players 23 and under:

He frequently gets on base and the power is without question here. Go add him in bunches where you can as the stock is going to continue to rise. His perceived value is nowhere near a 7th overall ranking as of this writing, but you’re looking at a potential offensive beast at the catcher position that you can buy at a really low price.

Alexander Albertus (LAD)(19):

Albertus split time between DSL and CPX last year as an 18-year-old. He slashed .310/.471/.468 for a 152 wRC+. What’s notable about Albertus is that he walked twice as much as he struck out. I know that’s easy to do if you just don’t swing the bat in the DSL, but even after he was promoted to CPX his BB rate was 29.8% and his K rate was 8.5%. These are gaudy numbers from an 18-year-old while also displaying power and stolen base ability (5 homers and 9 steals in 45 games). It’ll be interesting to see if this plate approach keeps up in 2024 when he’s at Low-A — and if it does keep up, Albertus will be rising among the ranks quite fast. He has quite a bit of a leg kick when he’s up to bat but his body stays compact and tight. He’s got a good frame already and there's more to project here in terms of power as he matures. Albertus is a name to watch and add before he takes off in 2024.

Felnin Celesten (SEA)(18):

What’s an 18-year-old who hasn’t played affiliated ball doing on this list? Well, that speaks to Celesten’s pedigree and profile. I think he’s going to be a highly-ranked player come this time next year. I wrote about Celesten in my top 25 SS Prospect Rankings:

“The 18-year-old was set to debut last year but suffered a hamstring injury. There’s not much to go by besides scouting reports and video and both have drawn rave reviews. I can see Celesten starting the year in CPX and eventually finding his way to A-ball rather quickly. Seattle doesn’t have to rush him, but the profile suggests he should be ready. Given the fact that he didn’t play an affiliated game last year, Celesten comes in ranked 20th. I know in my heart of hearts this ranking is probably too low. I’ll come to revisit this next year when he’s inevitably in the top 10.”