Top 100 Dynasty Hitting Prospects - 2024

• Nobody who has debuted will be on this list nor will Jung Hoo Lee (who would probably be slotted somewhere smack dab in the middle)

• I separated hitters and pitchers into two separate lists. You can check out my top 100 pitching prospects here

1) JACKSON CHOURIO (MIL):

Chourio is on the path to becoming a superstar in the big leagues — his 2022 season in which he ascended three levels as an 18-year-old put him on the map after a successful DSL debut in 2021. Blessed with incredible bat speed, Chourio has natural line-drive power and loft to his swing which will allow him to hit for power in the big leagues — and he has more to grow as he’s still just 19 as of this writing. There’s already current power and yet we can project for more once he’s filled out. He’s aggressive on the basepaths and provides dual-threat potential. We’re looking at a solid 20-20 base case floor for Chourio. The ceiling is even higher. There are potential MVP seasons on the horizon, but let’s not get carried away just yet. Let’s look at his 2023 season.

Chourio started 2023 at AA — in the Southern League — where they used the pre-tacked balls.

In the 71 games with the pre-tacked ball, he slashed: .249/.304/.410 to go with an 88 wRC+ and a .160 ISO.

In the 57 games after the removal of the pre-tacked ball, he slashed: .324/.379/.538 to go with a 141 wRC+ and a .214 ISO. Literally a tale of two halves for Chourio last year — and remember, he was just barely 19 years old at the time.

He totaled 22 homers and 43 steals in 122 games at AA last year before a six-game stint at AAA to close out the year.

Chourio’s Zone-Contact% ran at nearly 83% to go with just a 32.2% O-Swing%, making contact on 63.2% of pitches outside the zone — good signs to see from someone his age that has his level of aggressiveness at the plate.

In 6 games at AAA, Chourio ran nearly the same Zone-Contact% at 84.6% while his O-Swing% was 27.5% — making contact on 71.4% of pitches outside the zone, lowering his K-rate to just 4.2% (minuscule sample, I know).

Chourio maintained about the same BB rate his entire time in the minors (7-8%) while lowering his K rate last year significantly. He was in the lower 20s in 2022 and all the way down to 17.9% in 2023. He’s shown a more patient approach at the plate while still being able to produce the counting stats — power and speed numbers — we’re looking for. Ronald Acuña Jr. posted similar rates in his stint in the upper minors and look where he is now. That’s not a comp either, as it’s unfair to compare the best offensive player on the planet to a 19-year-old who just happens to have a similar skill set.

There’s more room for improvement with Chourio, which is scary to write. The ceiling is sky high and as written above, we’re looking at a potential MVP level peak-case of at least 30-30 to go with high averages in his prime — maybe as early as next year.

2) WYATT LANGFORD (TEX):

Texas just won the World Series and now they have arguably the best prospect in the game who is ready to help them immediately. Think of Chourio and Langford as more of a 1A/1B ranking on this list. Langford has hit at every level he’s been at, whether it was in college or whether it was in the minors last year where he hit 9 home runs in 41 games above rookie ball — ascending from A+ all the way to AAA while seemingly getting better at each stop.

The upper minors were no challenge for Langford. He showed an incredible approach increasing his BB rate at each stop while walking more than he struck out. He posted a 199 wRC+ and a .317 ISO — absurd numbers no matter how small the sample. He had a Zone-Contact% of 78.5% and an O-Swing% of 28.4% in High-A to go with a Zone-Contact% of 78.6% and an O-Swing% of 21.1% at AA. His O-Contact% was 86.7% which shows he can stay in at-bats and limit his K’s while being able to hit pitches out of the zone.

We’re looking at excellent OBPs to go with 25+ HR power and 20+ stolen bases — and sooner rather than later. I think Langford’s floor is higher than Chourio’s, although Chourio doesn’t get much credit for his floor. Langford’s base-case floor might be evident the moment he steps on a big league field. I don’t think it will take him much time to get acclimated at all — which is part of the appeal.

He’s truly an outlier of a hitter and should’ve been the number-one bat picked in the 2023 draft. A lot of people thought it. A lot of people felt it. A lot of people said it. Why it didn’t happen beats me. Instead, he fell to fourth overall to the reigning World Series champs. Some teams just have all the luck.

3) JACKSON HOLLIDAY (BAL):

I can write anything in this blurb and it won’t make any difference. Glossing over Jackson Holliday at 1st overall at the shortstop position is what I would do. I wouldn’t read it. Even if this wasn’t a positional prospect ranking, Jackson Holliday belongs near the top — if not at the very top.

Holliday possesses such a high floor to go with a high ceiling that he comes across as one of those generational prospects not only at shortstop but in all of baseball. The kid played across four levels last year, starting at A ball and then jumping to AAA — as a 19-year-old. The stuff of a wunderkind. Or is that bildungsroman? It’s a wunderkind and the hero of the story who we see blossoming in front of our own eyes is Jackson Holliday — this is his bildungsroman. I just like using that word.

I could post fancy plots and show where Holliday landed alongside hitters his age and/or level but I won’t do that because he was in the upper echelon of just about every metric, except for his counting stats — 12 HR and 26 Stolen Bases through 141 games across the previously mentioned four levels. And he didn’t really struggle for prolonged periods, which points to that high floor.

He walks just about as much as he strikes out. He consistently hits for average and his OBP is usually more than .100 points greater than his BA. He has speed and is willing to run which will lead to modest to above-average stolen base totals. He has 25+ HR potential yearly once he fills out while playing exceptional defense at shortstop — the same goes if he’s forced to move to 2nd or 3rd because they want to keep Gunnar at shortstop. Holliday plays a better short, but that’s Baltimore’s good problem to have.

The ceiling is something we haven’t even had a glimpse of yet. It points to potential MVP-level seasons from Holliday at the big league level. That’s not hyperbole.

4) WALKER JENKINS (MIN):

In any other draft, Walker Jenkins might’ve been the first overall pick. A standout prep bat out of South Brunswick HS (GA), Jenkins earns comparisons to Larry Walker, baseballs Larry Legend — absolutely unfair — given Walker is a HOF’er, but that speaks to just how highly Jenkins was viewed coming out of high school — and still is for that matter. He has elite bat control and elite bat speed which will likely produce 25-30+HR at the big league level. He has an elite feel for the zone — as evidenced by his 90.2% Zone-Contact% at Low-A last year. The potential is sky-high and the swing is already there for him to reach that upside.

Jenkins raked when he got his shot in the minors last year running through CPX and then getting a twelve-game stint at A-ball. At A, Jenkins slashed: .392/.446/.608 to go with a .483 wOBA. You read that correctly — nearly a .500 wOBA. He kept his K rate in check striking out only 10.7% of the time at the level. There’s prodigy written all over this kid — a power-hitting corner outfielder who also has some speed to boot — though it may take him some time to display the power in games, I have no doubt that it’ll arrive. The upside of his contact-ability, hit tool, plate approach, and power potential is why he’s ranked 3rd on this list — also because I think the probable outcome of achieving it is higher than some of the others ranked below him, despite being only 18 years old.

5) JAMES WOOD (WAS):

Wood has been in my top 5 OF for two years now and the upside shows why. I actually don’t think he had that bad a year last year, only confirming my belief that he’ll be a power-hitting specimen at the big league level. We’ll get to that later. First, let me mention why he’s 4th on this list:

This type of upside is freakish. We’re looking at plus speed and plus-plus power coming from a kid who’s 6’6 maybe 6’7’’ — and given his frame he’s likely to retain his speed and steal bases in the future.

Now let’s get to his 2023 season. He split time between A+ and AA hitting 26 homers and stealing 18 bags in 132 games. He had a .255 ISO and a 132 wRC+ — as a 20-year-old.

Now let’s get to the concerns. His K rate. He struck out 31.9% of the time — yet he still managed to put up good numbers. Will he drop his K rate enough so that he’ll hit consistently?

Let’s look at his first 40 games at AA. He slashed: .207/.312/.421 and struck out 31.8% of the time.

In his final 47 games at AA, he slashed: .281/.354/.551 but struck out 35.4% of the time.

He hit more and he hit harder while striking out more, that’s both promising and concerning. I think it’s promising that he’s putting up these numbers despite the K rate as we’ve seen younger players adapt and lower the strikeouts as they’ve matured and ascended through the upper minors. I think that’ll be the case with Wood. We’re not necessarily looking at someone who will drop his K rate to 20% but is it possible that he drops it to the 25-28% range? I believe so. And if he were to do that, the probability of reaching his ceiling increases — a 35+HR potential bat to go with 15-20 steals a year is a nice asset to have in fantasy.

6) EMMANUEL RODRIGUEZ (MIN):

E-Rod is an interesting case of someone who is so passive at the plate —as evidenced by his 51.2% Zone-Swing% — that he barely chases (22.8% O-Swing%) but strikes out a ton — 29.5% last year. Because of the passivity and excellent zone recognition, he also draws a lot of walks — 20.2% in 2023. The high walk totals will lead to high OBPs even if he never lowers his K rate. The power potential is 30+HR a year from this sweet-swinging lefty. He can even run and chip in some steals — we’re looking at possible mid-teens steal totals given his penchant for getting on base. That’s a dream outcome and a lot of factors have to be at play, mainly his health and a potential change in approach. He may be who he is by now, but I wouldn’t rule out a more aggressive approach in the future leading to more HR totals.

In his final 58 games at A+, E-Rod slashed: .270/.434/.525 with 9 homers and 12 steals. His wRC+ was 168 and his ISO was .255 while lowering his K rate to 27.7% in the same timeframe. His stock fell at the end of 2022 following his knee injury and the surgery which followed and it continued to be in question in the first half of 2023. He dispelled all those concerns with a strong second-half finish and I think E-Rod is someone who may be on par with some of the names higher on this list.

The power and speed combined with his almost uncanny ability to get on base are why he’s ranked 6th ahead of some more notable names. He’s a definite buy as his stock isn’t perceived to be the 5th best outfield prospect — yet.

7) DYLAN CREWS (WAS):

Months before the 2023 draft, Crews was considered a favorite to go first overall and was considered the best bat in the draft. He was taken 2nd overall to the Washington Nationals who now have two of the top six outfielders on this list. An argument can be made that he’s actually still in the same tier as Langford and the other names above him. It comes down to preference, for me.

For example, Crews ran a 79.0 Zone-Contact% at High-A last year and a 77.9% Zone-Contact% at AA. He lowered his O-Swing% to a good 24.2% at AA, however his contact on pitches outside of the zone remained at just below 45%. See Langford and Jenkins — their plate approach at similar levels is why I prefer them to Crews at this stage.

Crews was a standout at LSU posting excellent EV’s while hitting for average and power. The ceiling with Crews is just as high as the other names above him although I don’t see him reaching 30-35+HR potential. At his peak, Crews can be a high average/high slugging machine who flanks centerfield or a corner outfield position. In fact, he hits so well he can be a leader in those categories without putting up gaudy HR totals. There’s speed to his profile too, as he will be able to produce double-digit steal totals to go with 20-25 HR. It’s not a bad outcome — Crews is one of the top outfield prospects in the game and if you prefer him to some other names there’s no argument from me in terms of preference — because he is in that same tier.

8) COBY MAYO (BAL):

Mayo is a masher and wherever he ends up, whether it’s 1st base or 3rd base — he’s going to hit. As of this writing, I don’t even know if he’ll be a Baltimore Oriole long-term. Whatever team he lands on is getting a potential offensive beast. I ranked Mayo 2nd in my Top 25 1B Prospect Rankings. Here is what I wrote:

“Mayo played 19 games at 1B in AAA. I’m comfortable labeling him as a Corner Infielder as of now as they’ll play him anywhere once he’s up with the Orioles (or barring a trade, whomever he plays for) so long as they can get his bat in the lineup.

As a 21-year-old, Mayo played 78 games at AA slashing: .307/.424/.603 hitting 17 Home Runs while posting a .296 ISO and a 178 wRC+. He demolished the level. His results backed up his profile which includes a plus hit tool and plus plus power. Seriously, the power is prodigious with this kid and it doesn’t matter where he’ll play on the diamond as long as he gets AB’s for the Orioles (or for whatever team he winds up on).

He was promoted to AAA and played 62 games slashing: .267/.393/.512 adding another 12 Home Runs while posting a .244 ISO and a .398 wOBA. High OBP numbers can be counted on as he posted BB rates of 14.7% at AA and 15.7% at AAA. I think last year, I was too low on Mayo and after what he showed in 2023, he’s right up atop these rankings to start 2024.

He finished 6th overall in the HitTilt+ rankings for 2023:

He’s going to be costly, but I think he’ll produce right away at the big league level while we’re looking at a peak case of him being a consistent 25-35 HR threat who posts high OBP’s and other good rates. If you own him, hold and reap the rewards when he’s putting up big numbers in the show.”

9) COLT KEITH (DET):

I know Keith is going to play 2B this year for the Tigers and Detroit has explicitly laid out plans for Jace Jung to eventually be their 3rd baseman, but who knows what the future holds. As of right now, Keith is a 2B/3B. I ranked Keith 1st overall in my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings and have him and Mayo almost identically placed in my rankings. It’s more like a 1A/1B situation. Here is what I wrote about Keith:

“Keith is an extra-base machine. He hit 38 doubles and 27 homers in just 126 games last year between AA and AAA. He was only 21 at the time. Fast forward to today and he has a job at second base lined up on opening day.

I remember people freaking out about Sal Frelick’s lightning-quick hands and when I watch Keith, I see the same quickness, except now it’s paired with plus power potential. Keith maintained a BB% north of 10% for about 3 years now in the minors. And he’s kept his K% right around 20% during that same period. The consistency, approach, and power potential excite me — sorry for getting carried away there.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Keith has the job at 2nd base on opening day and gets a full season’s worth of at-bats leading him to accumulate 30+ doubles and 20-25 HR while posting a modest to above average OBP. All the kid does is hit at every level he’s been at — posting a wRC+ of 150 and a .244 ISO in 2022 (as a 20-year-old) — and posting a wRC+ of 140 and a .247 ISO in 2023 (as a 21-year-old in the upper minors). His profile even gets a boost by the fact that he’ll be eligible at 2nd base and knowing the type of power he can contribute at an otherwise scarce position. I can see an OBP over .340 to go with 25+ doubles and 20+ HR in his first season in Detroit. A part of me thinks that might just be his floor.”

10) LAZARO MONTES (SEA):

Mini-Yordan is an absolute beast. He broke onto the scene in 2022 hitting 10 HR in 55 games in the DSL. Of course, that came with a 33.2% K rate so everyone raised their red flags. Then in 2023 he split time between CPX and A-ball and hit 13 HR in 70 games while lowering his K rate to 25%. Red flags are now shot down. If he keeps up that improvement in K rate, everyone is going to be in on Lazaro as the power potential is absolutely prodigious. He really is like a mini-Yordan, and like Yordan, Lazaro is being overlooked as a prospect. There’s a tremendous amount of growth I’ve seen from 2022 to 2023 that makes me comfortable ranking him as the 7th overall outfield prospect. For example, his O-Swing% sits at just 24.8% so we’re not really seeing him chase pitches outside the zone which is a good sign of his plate recognition. Is there still risk? Of course, as there is with any of these kids. Do I think the risk factor is overblown in comparison to the potential outcome he has? Also, yes. He’s still young enough to adjust on pitches in the zone (Z-contact% of 71.7% — there’s room for improvement) and when he does that he’s going to be at the very top of this list next year.

Just to throw in a bone, Lazaro finished the year ranked 6th in the final HitTilt+ rankings:

I would be looking to acquire him at all costs.

11) ROMAN ANTHONY (BOS):

Anthony may be the highest riser in rankings from 2022 to 2023. He had a standout 2023 in which he played three levels, excelling at each one. The approach is great as is the hit tool and he’s growing into more power — potential explosion in 2024 — again.

Anthony walked 17% of the time last year while keeping his K rate below 25% which lends itself to high OBPs.

He got better going from A ball to A+ as his power started to show, hitting 12 HR in 54 games, good for a 164 wRC+ and a .275 ISO. His K rate spiked to 30% but he still hit .294 and continued to display his on-base ability. He doesn’t usually chase pitches (29.5% O-Swing%) so the K rate may be inflated for such a small sample given that he lowered it to 13.6% in 10 games at AA. There is, however, slight concern with his contact ability with pitches in the zone as he finished A+ with a 67.9% Z-Contact%. Everything else points to a potential star, including his .419 wOBA and .575 wOBACON. There was helium with Anthony mid-season last year and there’s still potentially more helium left in the tank as he navigates the upper minors. This is one of the best outfield prospects in the game.

12) SAMUEL BASALLO (BAL):

Basallo is without a doubt my top-catching prospect. He’s likely to move to first base but as of this writing, you can go ahead and try buying as he may have C eligibility upon arriving to the majors. For how long? I don’t know. What I do know is Basallo is a 19-year-old who has shown an advanced approach, burgeoning hit tool, and excellent power development while improving at each level in the minors. He was 18 years old playing at 3 different levels during the 2023 season.

In 83 games at A ball to start the 2023 campaign, Basallo slashed .299/.384/.503 while posting a BB% of 11.6% and a K% of 20.7%. He hit 12 Home Runs and had an ISO of .205. Good Stuff. Here’s where it gets better:

In his final 31 games between A+ and AA, Basallo slashed .351/.450/.685 while increasing his BB% to 15.3% and lowering his K% to 16.0%. He hit 8 Home Runs in his final 31 games and had an absurd ISO of .333 to go with a 198 wRC+. This put him atop the HitTilt+ leaderboard for 2023 which is incredibly impressive stuff given his age and level:

He posts excellent EVs given his age and had a true breakout in 2023 which puts him atop my Catcher Prospect rankings for 2024. Go get him if you still can

13) CHASE DeLAUTER (CLE):

I had DeLauter as a top 5 hitting prospect coming out of James Madison before the 2022 draft. He fell to 16th to the Cleveland Guardians who got a hell of a steal. If you’ve seen DeLauter, you know he’s one of the more fluid and athletic players out there, which is impressive given his size.

DeLauter has great bat-to-ball skills which Cleveland is fairly good at developing (see J-Ram) and his swing is geared toward power.

Chase does chase a bit — as evidenced by his 32.5% O-Swing%, but when Chase chases he makes contact 82.1% of the time, which is a borderline elite number. Back to his bat-to-ball skills — they may just develop as being elite over time.

I’m not sure where others have DeLauter ranked, but he’s an easy top-10 outfield prospect in my eyes, given his floor and ceiling.

He had a great AFL showing, slashing: .299/.385/.529 while hitting 5 homers and stealing 5 bags in just 23 games. It seems to me that his stock became fairly depressed in 2022 after he suffered a foot injury but he dispelled that quickly by performing well in 2023, reaching AA — hitting for average, showing some power, and displaying his ability to get on base by not striking out. As of writing this, I’m wondering if I have him too low. For now, he’s the 9th best outfield prospect in baseball and if you can buy low now would be the opportunity to do so.

14) COLSON MONTGOMERY (CHW):

Big for a shortstop, Montgomery still possesses good hands and a good glove — good enough instincts to stick at the position. That’ll be Chicago’s call. Montgomery missed the first half of 2023 with an injury (which still seems to be nagging him) and returned in June to a handful of CPX games before repeating A+ for a 17-game stint where he slashed .347/.537/.552. He walked more than he struck out. He was promoted to AA in August and finished his 2023 season there.

If you take the 17 games he played at A+ and the 37 games he played at AA, Montgomery is one of two shortstops with at least 250 plate appearances above rookie ball with a BB/K of at least 0.85 and a wRC+ greater than 150. The other? Jackson Holliday. In fact, the numbers across the board look identical:

Holliday (A,A+,AA,AAA) - BB/K: 0.86 / OBP: .442 / ISO: .176 / wOBA: .429 / wRC+: 159

Montgomery(A+, AA): - BB/K: 0.88 / OBP: .445 / ISO: .190 / wOBA: .419 / wRC+: 152

Holliday was 19 and exhibited this for over 140 games while Montgomery was 21 and displayed this for just over 50 games. Despite not having quite the same profile as Holliday, it isn’t inconceivable that Montgomery turns in seasons on par with Holliday given his high floor, sparing the speed and base-running. The ceiling just isn’t anywhere near as high.

Montgomery even finished 16th in the HitTilt+ final rankings for 2023:

The White Sox are without a true shortstop so we might see Montgomery up early in 2024 if he doesn’t break camp to begin with. We’re looking at a solid high floor with enough ceiling (20-25+HR and high OBPs) to put him at 2nd in my top 25 Shortstop prospects.

15) ADAEL AMADOR (COL):

I’ve had a prospect crush on Amador ever since he broke out stateside in 2022. For 2 years, he’s consistently posted a BB% > K% while basically being at a .300/.400/.500 slash line. That’s become the norm for Amador and seems to be what’s expected by now. Yet, Amador still feels underrated.

He has a 70-grade hit tool as per Fangraphs and despite the lack of projected raw power, he runs into power at a decent clip. It’s not only enough that his BB>K but he also rarely strikes out in general. He posts low SwStr%s and is excellent at making contact, although he may be someone who gets into the trap of hitting too many ground balls at times. Something that can be fixed, especially at his age.

I don’t think Amador is going to be someone who hits 20-25 home runs a year in the show but a consistent 15HR + 25SB to go with a high average and OBP is something he’s capable of, especially at Coors. The ceiling might not be as high with Amador as it is with some of the others ranked below him, but there’s an excellent floor here that would allow me to sleep at night if he was my 2nd baseman of the future.

16) JETT WILLIAMS (NYM):

Imagine Dustin Pedroia with borderline elite speed to go with high OBP numbers. That’s Jett Williams. The swing and pedigree are reminiscent of Pedroia — and the speed as mentioned before is borderline elite. We’re talking 35-40+ SB potential yearly to go with a BB% in the upper teens to 20%. Getting on base is no problem for Jett as his approach is excellent while his contact ability is better than average with potential for more.

Like Amador, this points to a high-floor potential for Jett Williams. We’ll have a better understanding of his upside once he navigates a full season at AA — as he popped 7 HR in just 36 games at A+. That’s a 27 HR pace through 140 games. Now is that something he’s capable of given his lack of size? I'm not convinced. But something in the middle ground of 18-22 HR is possible given his profile. We’ve seen players his size lift the ball with consistency and Jett may be able to do the same — while adding a ton of steals and high BB rates — exactly what you’re looking for in a player at a fairly thin position.

Williams finished 11th overall in HitTilt+ rankings for 2023 which is a testament to the power and speed he showed between A and A+ last year:

He also posted low SwStr% numbers as shown on this plot:

He’s in the same company as Amador except he displayed more power and more speed. So why is he ranked 3rd and not 2nd? The floor for Amador mentioned above is safer in my opinion, although Jett has a solid floor as well. The upside here is also high-teens HRs with a lot of stolen bases. Don’t shy away from acquiring Jett Williams just because of his size or lack thereof. He will be a good Major League asset and someone who you can plug into your 2B spots on your fantasy rosters without hesitation — at least that’s what the profile suggests.

17) MATT SHAW (CHC):

Just a few weeks ago it was noted that Matt Shaw was taking over “99% of his reps at Third Base this offseason.” I’m not sure where he’ll end up but it’s good that he’s getting in reps outside of second and short if it means the Cubs are going to want to use him at Wrigley sooner than later.

Shaw had a monstrous season in the Big 10 which led him to be drafted 13th overall in the 2023 draft. He’s got power and he’s got speed — and there’s defensive versatility, though I see him being best suited at 2b given his size and stature — but with Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner around he’ll have to get comfortable with the hot corner. The position doesn’t matter as long as they get his bat in the lineup.

He had a 163 wRC+ and a .248 ISO in 35 games between A+ and AA last year, adding 7 home runs and 13 steals — being caught only twice. The price tag is going to be high in drafts but that’s only because it’s worth it — he is my favorite middle infielder from the 2023 draft and will contribute at the big league club sooner rather than later.

2024 will likely see him start at AA, or if the Cubs are particularly aggressive then he’ll be at AAA. Shaw will put up a .200+ ISO with a 140+ wRC+ and I’m confident in writing that because all he’s done is hit.

18) OWEN CAISSIE (CHC):

Caissie obliterates baseballs as shown by his ridiculous EV numbers — 110mph 90th percentile EV. Like Chourio, he spent the first half of his season in the Southern League where they pre-tacked the balls. As the concern has always been strikeouts let’s take a look at Caissie’s K rates before and after the pre-tacked balls.

First 74 games (tacky ball): K%: 33.9% — ISO: .239 — wRC+: 133

Final 49 games (freedom era): K%: 27.1% — ISO: .209 — wRC+: 154

Here are his rolling K and BB charts to end the year:

thanks to @TJStats for the data and graphics

His K’s dropped while his BB’s increased — good signs.

This shows that despite the tacky ball, Caissie was hitting for power regardless. And after the tacky ball, Caissie lowered his K% by over 6 points while still hitting for power and producing runs. He was just 20 years old last year at AA where he hit 22 homers in 120 games. The change in his K rate after the tacky ball was removed is a promising sign.

Like I wrote earlier, Caissie obliterates the ball. That’s not something I say lightly, he hits the ball hard and he hits the ball far — when he’s barreling. The concern is his 63.6% Z-Contact%. His chase rate stands at the same rate as Chase DeLauter — 32.5% — yet he’s a year younger and he held it at a level above (though his contact on pitches outside the zone isn’t bad, it’s not nearly as elite as DeLauter’s). He needs to increase his zone contact to effectively hit more consistently and to allow himself to barrel more balls. If we see Caissie hovering around a 25% K rate while also increasing his in-zone contact to above 70-75%, I have no doubt we’re looking at a premier power hitter at the outfield position — although he has been taking reps at 1B this spring.

19) JOSUE DE PAULA (LAD):

The cousin of former NBA legend, Stephon Marbury — yeah, I’ll go as far as to call him a legend, he was damn fun to watch — De Paula is headed towards similar stardom. There’s superstar written all over him evidenced by his high-end exit velocities and excellent plate approach.

De Paula posts good BB rates and has power potential which will give him high OBPs and power numbers as he navigates further up the minor league ladder. He’s an advanced hitter for his age (83.4% Zone-Contact%) — 18 as of this writing — and is only getting better. The peak case for De Paula is one of the better power-hitting outfielders in the game with a seemingly high floor due to his excellent bat speed, hit tool, ability to get on base, and projectability to go with his current power output. He’s a name who can shoot up these rankings this time next year and if it’s affordable, I would be looking to acquire De Paula.

20) CARSON WILLIAMS (TBR):

Carson Williams makes it four straight shortstops drafted out of high school. As I wrote in the bulleted notes above, I’m chasing upside with this position and upside is what Carson Williams provides. There are lingering concerns over his hit tool as he doesn’t make enough contact for me to feel comfortable with, as evidenced by his 31.8% K-rate at A+ in 2023. When he does make contact he does damage.

In 105 games at A+, Williams hit 23 homers and stole 17 bags — good enough for a 131 wRC+ and a .252 ISO. He slashed: .254/.351/.506. If there is going to be any gripe over Williams it’s the worry that he won’t be able to adapt to big-league hitting — raising his K-rate rather than adapting and lowering it. Williams was just 20 all of last year and will likely start 2024 at AA. If he shows any strides in his approach and learns to better recognize and hit breaking pitches, watch out.

The offensive ceiling is 30+ homer potential and double-digit steals, likely 20-25. Defensively, he’ll stick at shortstop as he’s a plus glove. There are still slight adjustments that need to be made for Williams to capitalize on his ceiling. He is still young and the upside is screaming buy-low or fair value, even if he never hits .270 or above.

21) MAX CLARK (DET):

I’m not convinced there’s a ton of power potential in Clark’s bat — he was drafted for his ability to hit and play sound defense. He’s still young and can grow into 20-25 HR potential so I’m not going to leave him out. I think he’ll be a much better real-life player than for fantasy purposes which is why he’s ranked 13th and not higher. The Tigers are building up a solid core of offensive talent and Clark fits perfectly into that plan. My view is he’ll be an above-average defender and hit for average while posting high OBPs — ignore the small sample in the minors last year. This kid can hit.

If nothing else, he’ll be one of the more polarizing players on this list given his popularity off the field — but a modest case of what we’re looking at is what I mentioned above — above-average to high OBPs, good average, above-average defense, and a cornerstone player for the Tigers who in his peak might hit 18-22 HR while adding in a bunch of steals. It’s not a bad outcome by any means. Clark’s risk factor just remains a bit high for me to rank him in the same tier as some of the players he was drafted ahead of.

22) COLT EMERSON (SEA):

Emerson stands in the box like a young Michael Conforto. He even has the elite bat-to-ball skills that Conforto showed while in the minors — lightning-quick hands, the ability to go with the pitch and drive it to all fields, and adaptability. That’s what comes to mind when I see Emerson — adaptability. He recognizes pitches and he drives them where they’re pitched.

This ranking might be too low going into next year and I’ll tell you why. Emerson has the potential to be one of the better players from the 2023 draft and was an absolute steal going at 22nd overall. Prep bats may take a while to get to the show but Emerson has the profile to navigate through the minors fairly quickly. He can hit for average and power and he has speed. In a short sample of 24 games, he slashed: .374/.496/.549 between CPX and A. He had just turned 18 years old at the time. This is a prospect with major helium and can explode his stock by this time next year. I would be drafting him if I can after some of the bigger names are taken off the board.

23) MARCELO MAYER (BOS):

Blessed with a pretty left-handed swing, Mayer —it’s safe to say — has been un-blessed with the ability to stay healthy and on the field for prolonged periods. Mayer, through no fault of his own, is criminally underrated and is often seen as an afterthought because of the injuries. I’m here to say Mayer is going to be healthy for the 2024 season and will put up a 140+ wRC+ and a .200+ ISO. If the health-gods can do one thing it’s to make this happen. And if it does happen? — He’s too low on this list.

Mayer has plus power potential from the left side and has the ability to hit 20-25+ HR yearly at the big league level while sticking at shortstop. That’s about his ceiling. His K-rates have maintained consistency at every level he’s played in — hovering right around the 24-25% mark. His BB rates have been in the double digits, mostly in the lower-teens with the exception being his short stint at AA last year. He’ll repeat AA to start the 2024 season and if he can stay on the field, we may see the best version of Mayer that we’ve seen since he was drafted 4th overall in the 2021 draft.

I would look into buying Mayer from a frustrated owner as his perceived value is fairly low given his incredible upside. All he needs is a healthy full-season under his belt.

24) KYLE MANZARDO (CLE):

Manzardo proved himself following the 2022 season — hitting 22 Home Runs while slashing: .327/.426/.617 between A+ and AA. This thrust him onto many top 10 overall lists. He then disappointed in 2023 with lingering questions about off the field issues he may have been dealing with. It’s not my job to speculate on that, but I do think Manzardo is primed for a bounce back. Here’s why:

He’s a BB/K darling, typically posting BB%’s in the mid-teens with just about equal K%’s. That, to go along with the great peripheral numbers (ISO, wRC+, wOBA) point to a player who is highly coveted at ProspectTilt.

Manzardo struggled initially at AAA in 2023 with the Rays before being traded to the Guardians. With the Guardians AAA affiliate, Manzardo slashed : .256/.348/.590 while hitting 6 Home Runs in 21 games. He posted solid in-zone contact rates last year to no avail and was bitten slightly by the BABIP gods as his BABIP was lower than it ever has been since he’s been playing in the minors. The good is that he will post high OBP’s relative to his average and he’s shown he gets the most out of his in-game power despite lacking the raw power of someone like Coby Mayo. Manzardo is a definite buy-low opportunity after his disappointing season, however a great AFL performance may have shrunk that buying window. Still, given where his perceived value is right now, I’d be taking a flier on Manzardo going into 2024 as he’s close to the big leagues and a bounce back is likely given the profile. There’s a lot of potential reward here.

25) XAVIER ISAAC (TBR):

The X-man posts high OBP’s. The X-man hits home runs. The X-man steals bases (despite being graded out as a 20 on the 20-80 scale for speed). The X-man was just 19 years old last season.

Enough with the X-man, though it has a good ring to it.

Isaac had his breakout in 2023. He started the season in A ball and hit 13 Home Runs in 90 games while slashing: .286/.380/.462. Those numbers are good but don’t stand out. Then he was called up to A+ and he went scorched earth in a small sample. He slashed: .408/.491/.898 and hit 6 Home Runs in just 12 games. X-man.

He posted a good 14.8% BB% with a respectable 21.2% K% which if he is to sustain bodes well to pair with his power profile. He’s going to be a 1B or DH and has received rave reviews for his makeup. He finished 8th overall in the HitTilt+ rankings to end 2023 and look where he ends up on this plot:

Right next to Coby Mayo. Is that to say Isaac will be Mayo? No. But he’s a good bet to at least come close to his power potential depending on how he navigates through the upper minors.

26) TERMARR JOHNSON (PIT):

Everyone is wondering where that notorious hit tool went. He’s hit .275, .244, .242 across 3 levels in the past 2 years.

The good: They were paired with OBP’s in the .400’s as he’s walking at over a 20% clip. Remember, he’s still just 19 and the approach looks good, albeit passive at times. I think the bat still has some life in it and the hit tool surfaces as he gets more comfortable.

More good: He maintained a wRC+ over 140 at both A and A+ last year in over 105 games. He added 18 home runs and stole 10 bases. There is a power profile in here that a few years ago was kind of ignored — like an old person eating a Werther’s on a park bench. You never see an old person eating a Werther’s on a park bench. Back to Termarr Johnson. There’s legitimate 20-25 HR power in his bat and it’s not like the hit tool just vanished. He has to navigate the upper minors and with the profile in place, it’s a good bet he figures it out. And even if this is just a .260-.270 bat, the 20% BB rates suggest OBP’s in the low to mid .400’s. Things are looking up for Johnson — there’s potential here to be one of the top 2B prospects in the league as he matures and treads through the upper minors. If there’s an owner in your league worried about the low averages, I’d take this as an opportunity to pounce on the opportunity to acquire Termarr Johnson for fair value.

27) LUISANGEL ACUÑA (NYM):

Two Mets Shortstops in the top 30? Blasphemy. Surely, they can’t play the same position at the same time — can they? One of Jett or Acuña is going to have to get more reps in the outfield, but as of this writing, they’re both 2B.

Acuña feels to me like someone who is criminally underrated given that his last name is fucking ACUÑA. And yes, he’s related to that other one. And no, he hasn’t been a bum in the minor leagues, either. He’s produced. There’s this sort of gripe against baby Acuña in that he can’t hit for power. Last I checked, he has quick hands and gets the barrel to the ball — easily adjustable are his launch angles as he’ll have to hit the ball on the ground at a lesser frequency. The speed and base running are without question.

Baby Acuña stole 44 bases in 2021 (12 HR and 15 2B in 111 games). He stole 40 bases in 2022 (11 HR and 16 2B in 91 games). And he stole 57 bases in 2023 as a 21-year-old in AA (9 HR and 28 2B in 121 games). I can see him running into a 2016 Jonathan Villar-esque season. And before you say a Jonathan Villar comp isn’t sexy, just remember in 2016, he hit 19 home runs and stole 62 bases while slashing .285/.369/.457.

If Acuña is at the top of the lineup, he will accrue counting stats due to his ability to get on base and steal bags. The profile is pretty sexy despite everyone seemingly being so dull on him — and he’s close. He figures to make his big league debut sometime in 2024.

28) BROCK WILKEN (MIL):

Wilken is a beast who only got better throughout his 3 years at Wake Forest. Seriously. If you don’t believe me, check this out:

Barrel%:

2021 — 21.5%

2022 — 21.8%

2023 — 33%

Chase%:

2021 — 19%

2022 — 18.4%

2023 — 11.1%

wRC+:

2021 — 135

2022 — 123

2023 — 187

Thanks to Robert Frey (@RobertFrey40) for the college data.

Wilken hit .345 with 31 HR for Wake Forest in 2023. He hit 71 total HR in his 3 years there which is most in ACC history. He’s an absolute beast in the mold of a Rhys Hoskins/Pete Alonso hybrid if all goes right. Does that mean he’ll hit 53 HR in his first year in the big leagues? No, he’ll hit 54. Seriously, though — all I’m saying is Wilken is built similarly in both stature and ability. He may even be a first baseman down the line — which depresses his value a bit, but I’m still not concerned.

Wilken was taken with the 18th overall pick by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2023 draft. I had him pegged as a top-10 draft prospect heading in — on his ceiling and raw power alone. Now do I think his floor is as low as some might think? No, I think he has a sound floor, and the improvements he’s made in his approach point to high OBPs in his future to go along with the prodigious power numbers he’ll produce.

Now let’s jump to A+:

In 150 plate appearances, he posted a:

92nd percentile Chase rate (20%)

97th percentile BB rate (18%)

94th percentile Hard-Hit (47%)

He slashed: .289/.427/.438 and walked 18% of the time while striking out at a 21.3% clip. That K rate would be great if it hovered around in that area in the upper minors. His Z-Contact% was good at 81.5% and his chase rate was 25.1% at the level.

He only had a 6 game cup of tea at AA in which he hit 2 HR but struck out 36% of the time. There’s not much to take from that sample — but that his Z-contact dipped to 68.8%, however, his chase rate improved to an elite 14.8% in just 89 total pitches seen (Again, small sample though).

Starting at AA in 2024, Wilken can display his improved approach by maintaining his BB rate and by improving upon his contact in the zone in the upper minors, because he’s shown that he will not chase at bad pitches —- if he does that, there’s a good possibility he’s the top 3B prospect in the game this time next year.

29) TYLER BLACK (MIL):

Black was selected 33rd overall in the 2021 draft out of Wright State — the alma mater of former NBA great Vitaly Potapenko, The Ukraine Train. Potapenko was picked 12th overall in the ‘96 NBA draft, one pick ahead of Kobe Bryant. Maybe it’s the Wright State curse if Black flames out and Cooper Kinney — the 34th pick in 2021 — becomes a Hall of Famer. Alright. Let’s finally get to why Tyler Black is ranked 4th.

The good: Black hit 18 HR and stole 55 bags in 131 games last year between AA and AAA. Counting stats? Check.

He had a 15.6% BB rate and a 17.6% K rate between both levels. Approach at the plate? Check.

His approach even improved at AAA for 39 games where he walked more than he struck out (15.6% vs 13.3%). Improvement while ascending levels in the upper minors? Check.

Finishing top 10 in the final HitTilt+ rankings for 2023? Check.:

Black maintained a 140+ wRC+ at both levels, respectively, and finished the season with a .218 ISO and a .416 wOBA. Black is going to post high OBPs which bodes well because of his penchant for being aggressive on the basepaths and stealing bases. He was only caught stealing 12 times which gave him an 82% SB success rate.

The bad: Not much to say after what I saw last year. If I have to nitpick I’d say the batted ball metrics point to someone with a decently high floor but not much of a ceiling, outside of the stolen base department. He does have sneaky pop which may allow him to hit 15-20 HR at his peak but somewhere in the mid-teens is much more likely given his approach and batted ball data.

We’re looking at a high-floor potential lead-off option for the Brewers who will post high OBPs and run like hell. Any added power to his projections will be a bonus.

30) KYLE TEEL (BOS):

Teel was taken with the 14th pick in the 2023 draft and quickly ascended from the Complex leagues (3 games) all the way to AA (9 games).

He played 14 games in A+ between those stops and his 23 game sample between A+ and AA shows that he didn’t skip a beat from his excellent college career at Virginia.

In those 23 games, Teel slashed .357/.476/.464 while posting a BB% of 18.1% and a K% of 21.0%. He will hit and post high OBP numbers without a doubt as the hit tool and plate discipline clearly carried over while the power lagged behind. Don’t let that scare you because there is legitimate 18-23 HR power potential + positive outcome potential in Teel’s bat as a professional if all goes well. And what needs to go well is that he’ll have to start hitting lefties more often which I think he’ll adjust to and do.

He’s a good defensive backstop and he’s closer than not to being big-league-ready. There are a few other names with higher perceived values than Teel as of this writing but I’m here to say 2024 will go a long way toward how Dynasty owners view Teel and with a good showing his perceived value will only go up and he will leapfrog some of the others ranked below him. That’s what puts him at 2nd on this list of top Dynasty Catchers. And if it weren’t for Basallo’s incredible breakout in 2023, Teel would be atop this list. That’s how high I am on him.

31) HARRY FORD (SEA):

Ford has the best speed tool out of the top catching prospects which he consistently displays due to his ability to get on base at a great clip. Ford was 20 years old and played the entirety of his 2023 season at A+, slashing: .257/.410/430 with 15 Home Runs and 24 Stolen Bases. He posted an ISO of .173 to go with a wRC+ of 135 to go with a BB% north of 18% and a K% south of 20%. More than respectable numbers with great counting stats.

Let’s look at how he finished the season. In his final 35 games, Ford slashed: .303/.449/.553 for an OPS north of 1.000 while he maintained his BB and K rates and posted an ISO of .250 and a wRC+ of 172. Now we’re looking at one of the top catching prospects in the game who puts up counting stats, high OBP’s, and plenty of good rates and power/speed numbers.

As of writing this, I’m already wondering if I have Harry Ford too low after I just daydreamed about him sticking at the catcher position posting a stat-line of 24 HR/20 SB with a .396 OBP. Alright, I shook that off. Still — it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that he’s a consistent 20/20 threat at the catcher position. Buy the stock accordingly.

32) ETHAN SALAS (SDP):

There’s a case to be made for Salas being the first catcher on this list. And I wouldn’t argue it, as he will post high OBP’s and has the potential for 20+ HR while sticking at catcher.

Salas was 17 years old during the 2023 season (He’s still just 17 years old as of this writing) and the Padres were rather aggressive pushing him all the way to AA to end the year. Even starting the year at A ball (as a 16-year-old, albeit for a few days) seemed aggressive but he burst onto the scene with his advanced feel and approach at the plate.

In 48 games at Low-A, Salas slashed .267/.350/.487 posting a BB% of 10.9% and a K% of 25.9%. He hit 9 Home Runs and stole 5 bags while putting up a more than respectable .220 ISO. He did all this while most kids his age were somewhere in their Sophomore or Junior years of High School. Insane.

Salas is an obvious stash and somebody who can debut in the Majors by 18 or 19 years old given the aggressive approach the Padres are taking with him. I’d like to see more from him in the minors, especially sticking at one level for a prolonged period of time to give him more reps as there’s no real urgency in rushing him. The hit tool and power in Salas’ approach to go along with his age are things you don’t see often and they should be taken into account if you try and acquire or add this prodigy. Truth is, however, there might not be a better time to sell as high as you can on Salas than right now as his perceived value and hype might be at their apex.

33) ARJUN NIMMALA (TOR):

There isn’t a huge gap between Emerson’s high-floor potential outcome and Nimmala’s high-ceiling potential outcome. I could have ranked them in either order but preferred to go with Emerson because there is actually a higher ceiling emerging with him than initially thought — growing bigger and into more power potential.

Nimmala already has the raw power and still has room to grow. He’s a wiry, twitchy athlete at short with good enough actions to stick at the position. The contact is loud and violent. The lingering question surrounding Nimmala has been the swing-and-miss in his game dating back to his high school days. I think those concerns are valid yet overblown. He showed that he chased fewer pitches in his 9 game stint at CPX last year. He also showed more patience walking 14 times to striking out just 8 times.

There’s a lot of Francisco Lindor to his game which is an outcome to dream on. It isn’t a pipe dream either — it’s possible if Nimmala can improve upon his hit tool and tap into his raw power. It’s 25-30+HR upside at the shortstop position with the potential for high OBP’s if what we saw last year was a glimpse into an improved approach at the plate. The Blue Jays don’t have to rush him as he just turned 18 and it will be interesting to see where they assign him to start in 2024.

I had Nimmala as a top 10 draft prospect heading into the 2023 draft based on upside alone. He fell to 20th and landed in the Blue Jays system which to me is a steal and a good landing spot. I would be looking to acquire Nimmala everywhere as there isn’t much hype surrounding him nor is there much noise degrading his stock. He’s almost floating in a sea of the unknown at this point — what we do know is the ceiling is a shortstop with 30+ HR potential.

Patience with this one, Blue Jays fans.

34) JACKSON MERRILL (SDP):

Merrill’s hit tool and defensive versatility will make him a big-league regular for many years. The outcome is the question. He’ll hit enough to be a part of an everyday line-up. It will come with low OBP’s given he doesn’t walk much. He doesn’t strike out much either — with his 12.6% K rate over 100 games last year between A+ and AA.

There is power potential of at least 20+ HR in Merrill’s bat if he learns to use his lower half with more frequency and if he increases his pull-side power. The outcome I’m leaning towards, however, is someone who hits for average, doesn’t walk much (lowering his OBPs), and hits 13-18 HR a year given a full season of at-bats. I view Merrill as a much better real-life player than one for fantasy purposes.

35) JOENDRY VARGAS (LAD):

It’s the 10th shortstop ranked and we still haven’t got to a college bat. Joendry Vargas was a highly-regarded part of the Dodgers’ 2023 international signing class. Scouts raved about Vargas before the signing and they continue to do so. Beyond the scouting, the stat line that Vargas put up in the DSL was something to dream on before he actually did it.

He slashed: .328/.423/.529 with 7 homers and 19 steals in just 48 games. He posted a 149 wRC+ and a .201 ISO to go with a .451 wOBA. Impressive stuff from a 17-year-old. He even walked at the same rate he struck out — at about a 14-15% clip. We’re looking at potential plus power given his frame and projectability and an approach that lends itself to high OBPs. The upside is tantalizing — he’s posted elite max exit velocities for someone his age and we can continue to see that trend rise.

Vargas has the potential to be a top-10 prospect this time next year. It all depends on what the Dodgers’ plans are for him — whether he starts at CPX or A. The cat is out of the bag on Vargas so the price is already reflective but there’s still more upside to value in if all goes right.

36) ABIMELEC ORTIZ (TEX):

I was all in on Ortiz from the start of last year and was tempted to rank Little Papi ahead of the X-man, but just couldn’t do it despite how much I love him. Are they close? Yes.

Ortiz received a quick promotion to A+ after posting a .290 ISO, hitting 7 Home Runs in 29 games in Low-A. He then hit 26 Home Runs in 80 games while posting an absurd .334 ISO in 80 games at A+. All Little Papi did last year was rake and finish 12th in the final HitTilt+ rankings.

2024 will be the year we know where Ortiz’s perceived value lands as he navigates the upper minors. If he continues at the torrid pace that he hit in A and A+, then Ortiz will be a fast riser. Defense is a question mark with Ortiz, so he will have to continue to hit. Prospect crush aside, Little Papi is the real deal and a potential middle-of-the-order masher.

37) LEODALIS DE VRIES (SDP):

De Vries has yet to play a game. And I have him 12th on this list. Is something wrong with me? I won’t go ahead and answer that but I’ll give it a year to see if this ranking sticks and then you can all answer that for me. Personally, I think he’ll shoot up these rankings this time next year. Here’s why:

De Vries was the top-ranked international signee from 2024 and is a potential plus across the board according to scouts. He’ll have the ability to stick at short and has displayed times of 4.2 seconds from home to first — so the speed isn’t a concern. He’s highly projectable and can grow into plus power from both the right and left sides of the plate — dare I say a 25-25 threat in the making — a Chourio-lite who plays shortstop.

The Padres have proven to be aggressive with their international signings — starting Ethan Salas at A before he turned 17 years old. I’m not sure De Vries will get the same treatment but with a good performance at the CPX, he can force their hand. This is a long play, with a seemingly long runway but the upside here is one you can’t ignore. The price is already reflective, but if I owned him I wouldn’t field any offers until he’s had a sample of pro ball so we can see what we have here.

38) RYAN CLIFFORD (NYM):

Pure upside play with prodigious power and a peak outcome of over 30+ homers a year. The power is real with Clifford but he’s still young and struggled with his K rate after the trade from the Astros to the Mets. These are slight red flags to watch as he continues his path heading toward the upper minors. The floor is a platoon player who hits 20-25 HR without much defensive versatility, but the upside as mentioned above is a high OBP, 30-35 Home Run potential, and manageable defense at either first base or a corner outfield position.

I’m looking for Clifford to bounce back in 2024, posting BB%’s back up near 20% while lowering his K% to a manageable 24-27% range. If you can buy low on Clifford, I would take the opportunity to do so before the season starts because the helium will start to rise again if he gets off to a hot start. It’s no secret here that the raw power is absolutely real. Potential monster in the making if he gets it all together. I see a little Jeromy Burnitz-type peak here if all goes right.

39) TOMMY TROY (ARI):

Troy is blessed with great speed a developing hit tool and some power to boot. I’ll be honest, I completely forgot about Tommy Troy when originally ranking this list so I had to slot him in where I think he belongs.

40) JAKOB MARSEE (SDP):

I’m admittedly high on Marsee and that’s why I have him placed 14th in these Outfield prospect rankings. A part of me thinks I’m still too low on him. He’s shown excellent zone recognition and displayed a power-speed blend (like many others — but with a better approach to safely reach this outcome) to the tune of 16 homers and 46 steals in 129 games between A+ and AA. He then dominated the AFL hitting 5 homers, 12 doubles, and stealing 16 bags in just 24 games — while leading the competition in slugging with a .707 mark. Absurd. He’s going to steal bases — that’s without question. But this power tick seems to be real.

Let’s dive a bit deeper into his 2023:

At A+: Zone-Contact% : 84.5% — Chase rate : 24% — O-Contact% : 84.9%

At AA: Zone-Contact% : 77.2% — Chase rate : 30.1% — O-Contact% : 85.3%

These are DeLauter-level O-contact rates and he maintained them after the jump to AA — a great sign to see. Marsee might not have as high a ceiling as some other names above or below him on this list, but I do think he has the tools and skillset given the data above to reach a solid-base floor of 15-20 HR with 25-30+ steals yearly. Don’t sleep on Marsee and go add him where you can.

41) YANQUIEL FERNANDEZ (COL):

Daddy Yanquee is another in the mold of a baby-Yordan. The swing and follow-through even look the same. I was the high man on Yanquiel last year and I’m not out on him this year.

He posted a 17.9% K rate at A+ last year before heading to AA where he posted a 32.9% K rate in nearly the same number of plate appearances. He was just a 20-year-old at the time so I think an adjustment is due. Do I think he’ll make it? Yes. Fernandez doesn’t have a crappy hit tool by any means. He’s shown when he starts at a level to begin the year, that he hits for average and for power. Last year he hit 25 homers in 114 games between A+ and AA. He’s a free-swinger so he won’t walk much, but patience can be taught, especially for someone so young. I’m looking for a repeat at AA this year where he improves his approach and lowers his K rate to below 25%.

If that’s the case we’re looking at 30+ HR potential to go with modest AVGs and modest OBPs — but the power is undeniable and shouldn’t be ignored as he’ll be just 21 and in AA with experience under his belt.

42) BRADY HOUSE (WAS):

Brady House was selected in the same draft as Tyler Black, going 11th overall out of High School. He was drafted for his raw power and his ability to barrel balls. The scouts grade him at a 50 for speed but don’t let that fool you because he won’t be stealing many bases. It’s often times inaccurate and not kept up to date as a player fills out or just flat out refuses to run — and sometimes a 40-grade runner on a scouting report turns out to be a speed demon or someone with sneaky speed and a good idea on how to steal bases. Anyway, House wasn’t drafted for his ability to steal bases. He was drafted because the Nationals thought they were getting the next Kris Bryant-lite.

He stands in the box almost like Trea Turner from the right side before barreling the ball a lot harder and getting great extension when he does barrel balls. House has yet to consistently show his plus power in-game but he’s also yet to play a full-season. There’s 25-30HR potential in his bat and the scouting-grade hit tool of just 40 is looking foolish. He’s hit for average at every level he’s played in. His approach is a concern(not walking enough, striking out too much) but he’s still just 20, and good players figure that out. Starting 2024 at AA and having a full season under his belt will go a long way toward realizing House’s perceived value and with a good showing he can elevate himself into one of the top 3B prospects in the game. The upside is higher than Black’s and the power potential is more appealing, which is why I considered ranking House 4th among third basemen. I couldn’t.

43) SEBASTIAN WALCOTT (TEX):

Walcott is likely to be a 3rd baseman down the line even if he continues to play shortstop for another year or two. Signed in last year’s international class for over $3M, Walcott already has plus power with the potential to grow into more. He already posts elite exit velocities and seems like a generational talent. We’ve seen talent like this fizzle out before (Robert Puason) but I’d argue Puason wasn’t this tooled up and never made the proper adjustments at the plate as he got older. Like with Puason, the biggest concern is the K-rate, which Walcott ran up to nearly 30% last year. The good, however, is that he’s still just 17 years old as of this writing. Any improvement upon that K-rate and Walcott instantly becomes a top 10 prospect, if not higher.

He hit 6 HR in a 13-game span last year at CPX and that’s when everyone took notice. It was a good sign seeing all those tools be put to use in that short sample and now all that’s left is for him to do it over a full season at A or A+. If he does, Walcott becomes one of the most intriguing prospects in the game given his plus tools across the board. I’d argue that he already is which is why I have him ranked as the 6th 3rd basemen ahead of some more established names.

44) GRAHAM PAULEY (SDP):

Pauley played some second, third, and the two corner outfield positions last year. I’m not sure where his long-term position stands but what I do know is that he’s continued to hit at every level he’s been at. I ranked Pauley 11th in my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings and here is what I wrote:

“I want to put Pauley higher on this list but he seems to have capped out his frame and projectability — which seems to be a 15-20 HR bat with a great hit tool at the big league level. The bat will keep him in the lineup whether it’s at second or third base — or a corner outfield spot — as it has driven the former 13th-rounder up my prospect rankings. Pauley also finished 13th in the final HitTilt+ rankings for 2023:

He played 3 levels in 2023 and here were his slash lines at each level:

A (62 games): .309/.422/.465 — 4 HR — 145 wRC+

A+ (45 games): .300/.358/.629 — 16 HR — 168 wRC+

AA (20 games): .321/.375/.556 — 3 HR — 141 wRC+

Pauley crushed it in 2023 hitting a total of 23 home runs while adding 22 steals. These types of numbers from a 2B in fantasy would be borderline elite. The only question I have now is if he can repeat AA with the same success as he did in his small sample to end the year last year. If there’s more power in the bat that can profile into him hitting 20-25+ HR in the big leagues, Pauley is too low on this list. In fact criminally too low. It’s low enough to put me in a paddy wagon with a blindfold on and swerve straight into the 19th precinct. With that said, I would be buying into Pauley right now and hoping that he can duplicate his 2023 because if he can, his stock and perceived value are going to do nothing but rise.”

The same holds true for him at 3B.

45) DREW GILBERT (NYM):

Gilbert is a safe pick at 43rd. He profiles as a regular everyday major leaguer and with his style of play will put up counting stats. The ceiling isn’t 30+ HR like some of the players ahead of him but the floor is relatively safe and there’s a peak case of Gilbert being able to run into some 20+ HR seasons with matching stolen base totals.

Gilbert has good plate coverage as his chase rate was 34.8% at AA last year though he made contact on 76.4% of pitches outside the zone. He could be better at making contact in the zone as his Z-Contact% was 75.5% — not great but not bad.

He isn’t that far from the show, as the Mets can use him sooner rather than later. Another player who I think will be a better real-life player than a fantasy player, but you can’t go wrong with mid-teens to low 20s HR potential with steals to boot — to go along with good averages and modest to above average OBPs.

46) STERLIN THOMPSON (COL):

University of Florida product Sterlin Thompson is a hitter. Can I write something as simple as that? If he was called up to the Rockies right now, he’d probably be one of the better hitters in the lineup. Either that’s saying a lot about Thompson or it’s saying very little about the Rockies. In this case, both can be true — and they are.

Thompson profiles best at a corner outfield position though he’s been playing 3rd base frequently enough that I have to include him here. He doesn’t have a profile that matches that of a big bopper, though we’re looking at someone who can be a great doubles hitter and who can run into mid-teens to 20 home runs yearly. Paired with his ability to hit for average, limit the strikeout, and his penchant for running and stealing bases (20-for-22 in 120 pro games — 91% success rate) he makes for a good-to-great overall player. The speed is undersold with Thompson, as I think he’ll be able to run a lot for the Rockies, given his ability to get on base. As of writing this, I’m wondering if I have Thompson ranked too low because I just love his profile and the fact that he’ll be able to display his gap-to-gap power at Coors Field. He makes for a relatively safe stash and someone who you know what you’ll get with.

47) COLE YOUNG (SEA):

I ranked Cole Young 9th in my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings. He’s 13th on this list because there are a lot more high-upside plays at the shortstop position. Young has a high floor which is still something to value. Here is what I wrote about Young from my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings:

“If you’re looking for a good player with a high floor without a high ceiling, then Young is your guy. He has a great feel at the plate — headlined by his plus hit tool and pitch recognition. He lacks any raw power that you’d wish to dream of but he profiles as a near-ready Major League everyday player. He’ll likely open the season at AA and if he continues at the pace he did in the lower minors, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that he makes his debut late in 2024. I’m not overly excited about Young but he does offer a stable floor at the 2b position that I’m at least comfortable with. We’re looking at 14-17 HR power at his peak with a similar stolen base output to go with good plate discipline and good ratios.”

48) RODERICK ARIAS (NYY):

Arias is a prospect I expect to rank higher next year once he gets a taste of A and A+. Last year, at CPX he slashed: .267/.423/.505 as an 18-year-old. He walked nearly as much as he struck out. His BB rate was 20.8% and his K rate was 22.3% while posting a .238 ISO and a 143 wRC+ — all things I like to see.

In the 27-game sample, he showed off his power and speed combo — hitting 6 homers and stealing 17 bags.

The former top international signee from 2022 is someone who can not only be at the top of the shortstop prospect rankings next year but also at the top of the overall prospect rankings. I would be looking to deal for him where I can, as injuries cut his first two years short, and given a clean bill of health the toolsy Arias will have his perceived value rise exponentially.

49) BRYAN RAMOS (CHW):

Ramos doubled his walk rate from 2022 at AA (repeating levels) from 5.8% to over 11%. In 77 games at AA in 2023, Ramos slashed: .271/.369/.457 — dispelling any concerns about his lagging hit tool. There’s an underlying star potential with Ramos, too. He has plus raw power to go with plus speed (though he didn’t run at all last year — shades of Yoan Moncada promising he’d steal 30 bags a year).

He’s still just 21 and had to navigate the tacky ball situation over at the AA - Southern League last year.

From July 14th onward, (post-tacky-ball, freedom era) Ramos slashed: .297/.375/.503 with 9 Home Runs in 46 games. That was good for a 133 wRC+ and a .206 ISO. He even lowered his K rate by 4 points to 17%. Legit, promising numbers from a 21-year-old navigating a tough situation. He followed that with a good showing in the AFL hitting 4 homers in 23 games.

It feels like Ramos is often overlooked among the other 21-and-younger stars who had to go through the same ordeal in the Southern League. He came out the other side with better results and with a lot to look forward to in 2024. I’d be looking to buy low if I could — there doesn’t seem to be much hype with him from what I can tell. As I wrote earlier, there’s legitimate star potential here — 20-25+HR upside with a hit tool that plays above scouts’ grades.

50) GABRIEL GONZALEZ (MIN):

Minnesota now has three outfielders in the top 20 OF prospects list which is a testament to their development, scouting, and drafting. Gabriel Gonzalez was recently traded to the Twins as part of a package that landed Jorge Polanco in Seattle.

Gonzalez is still only 20 years old and has a good hit tool to go with a power tool with more projectability.

Only 5 players above Rookie Ball (Age 20 and younger) had a K% less than 20% and at least 18 HR last year:

• Gabriel Gonzalez

• Jackson Chourio

• Blaze Jordan

• Samuel Basallo

• Junior Caminero

That’s excellent company for the 20-year-old. It’s to be seen what the Twins do with Gonzalez to start 2024 — whether it’s repeat A+ or start him out at AA. The upper minors will tell a lot as far as Gonzalez’s perceived value. As of now, I’m in on him being a top 50 hitting prospect and a top 20 outfield prospect.

51) SPENCER JONES (NYY):

Spencer Jones is another player built in the behemoth lab. Listed at 6’6 235 — he may even be bigger — Jones has tremendous raw power and excellent speed. It’s a combination that’s rare to find for someone his size.

There’s an argument to be made that he should be much higher on this list and that’s valid. I’ll get to why he’s here.

The good: The raw power and speed. He stole 43 bases and hit 16 homers in 117 games last year between A+ and AA. His K rate was below 30% at both levels, although barely — 29% and 28% respectively. His EV’s were excellent as well, posting 113 mph — he just needs more launch to translate that EV into home runs

The bad: The raw power has yet to completely translate into games. He did hit 16 homers last year but he was 22 in High-A. We are expecting more because of his size and power. Also, his chase rate was 35.3% at High-A and increased to 37.6% at AA. Due to this, he won’t be taking many walks as his BB rates will likely be in the single digits. He won’t post especially high OBPs unless he’s hitting for average which has yet to be the case.

The possibility: Let’s say Spencer Jones can hit at least .260 in the show and his raw power completely translates — then we’re looking at a premier slugger who offers great stolen base upside as well. We’re looking at a unicorn here if all goes right — and because of that he should be ranked much higher on this list.

I’m admittedly lower on Jones than a lot of others, but that’s not because I’m rooting against the kid. I want to see this unicorn hit 30-plus homers and steal 25 bags a year, but I’m not totally convinced his chase rates will come down and I expect his K rates to rise along with them. He’s still worth a stash because of the upside alone.

52) SAL STEWART (CIN):

Stewart was drafted 32nd overall in the 2022 draft out of Westminster Christian School (Miami) — the same school A-Rod attended. Now how’s that for a comp? Blow my brains out, will you? There’s nothing similar outside of them sharing the same high school. This started on a negative note, so I’ll start writing about the good.

The good: Sal Stewart is listed at 6’3 220 and has an excellent frame to hit his plus offensive projections. He’s hit at every level and has shown a great approach along with it. Stewart got off to a slow start last year in the power department but he finished his season strong.

In his final 61 games between A and A+, Stewart hit 10 home runs and 15 doubles while adding 8 steals. I know the scouts’ grades for his speed are low, but he finished the season with 15 stolen bases.

There’s some speed and smart base running to his game which isn’t hindered by his hulking size. As I wrote above in the Brady House blurb, scouting grades on speed are fairly unreliable and don’t take a lot of factors into account. Enough about Stewarts’ sneaky speed, let’s talk about how he finished the season.

In those final 61 games, he slashed: .311/.432/.514 with a 160 wRC+ and a .203 ISO. What’s more impressive is that 10 of his 12 home runs came in that span and he walked more than he struck out. His BB% was 16.6% and his K% was 14.4%. We’ve got a player who walks more than he strikes out, is built to hit home runs with plus power projections, and also hits for average. He happens to only be 20 years old as of this writing and will likely start 2024 at A+ — or AA if the Reds are feeling especially spicy. Stewart is underrated by all means and can likely shoot up this list with a good showing this year. It’s almost pathetic how underrated he is and the Reds’ embarrassment of riches continues to….embarrass. I couldn’t find the right word for it. But seriously, there is just a ton of infield talent on the way up in Cincinnati’s farm. Stewart is one of those bright spots.

53) ORELVIS MARTINEZ (TOR):

Orelvis Martinez suffers from the MiLB version of Perry Ellis syndrome, much like Connor Norby. Still just 22 years old, Orelvis Martinez feels like he’s been in the upper minors for four years if that makes sense?

Martinez has 93 home runs in affiliated pro ball and he’s just 22. Ninety-three! I feel guilty ranking him this low after all he’s done. I’ll send Orelvis Martinez an apology letter if he comes up and mashes 30 homers yearly while managing a .250 average. I actually think he can do that, except for the average. He hits bombs. Every year. Seemingly every other game. Yet he’s overlooked in fantasy circles because a lot of people don’t think he’ll hit enough in the Major Leagues to be a viable everyday player.

Sure — he strikes out a lot. He walks but not as much as you’d like — and he consistently hit for low averages over the last two years. Until he hit AAA, where he slashed: .263/.340/.507 over 55 games last year. If that was the slash line Orelvis produced every year, he’d be near the top of this list. I don’t know how or where to rank him, to be honest, and this blurb’s purpose isn’t to say he’s the 12th-best 3B prospect in the game — it’s to say he may be 12th based on some concerns but if he tweaked his approach for good in that 55 game sample then he’s someone you should be targeting as a top 5 3B guy instead.

54) MAC HORVATH (BAL):

If I had to bet which player ranked outside the top 200 on most publications will be included in the top 100 (maybe even the top 50) next year, I’d bet on it being Mac Horvath. This kid was an absolute steal at 53rd overall to no other than the Baltimore Orioles. Another stud in the making for an organization already loaded with talent.

Horvath hit 24 home runs and stole 25 bases while slugging .711 in 60 games at UNC last year. He’s a dual-threat Corner infielder with legitimate pop.

In his first taste of affiliated pro ball, Horvath hit 5 homers and stole 14 bags in just 22 games while posting an OPS of over 1.000. He had a 185 wRC+ and a .282 ISO while posting a BB rate right around 20% and a K rate around 26%.

At Low-A, Horvath ran an 81% Z-Contact rate with just a 27.6% chase rate.

At High-A, Horvath ran a 66.7% Z-Contact rate while increasing his chase rate to 30.8%. This came on just 99 pitches worth of data so the zone contact isn’t a worry for me yet at the High-A level, considering when he did make contact he did damage, posting an absurd .563 wOBACON.

In short, go add him.

55) JONATAN CLASE (SEA):

If Jonathan Clase played the entire year at High-A, he’d be ranked near the top 10. He was so good at High-A that Seattle had no choice but to promote him to AA.

Here’s what his plate approach looked like at A+:

Zone-Contact%: 84.9%

O-Swing%: 17.1%

BB%: 17.0%

He slashed: .333/.433/.701 for a 201 wRC+ and a .368 ISO to go with 7 homers and 17 steals in 21 games. Elite stuff.

He then struggled with his rates at AA but still put up enormous counting stats — 13 homers and 62 stolen bases in 108 games.

Here’s what his approach looked like at AA:

Zone-Contact%: 76.9%

O-Swing%: 35.5%

BB%: 13.1%

He slashed: .222/.331/.396 for a 94 wRC+ and a .174 ISO.

The main concern here is that he raised his O-Swing% by nearly double. It went from elite to a red-flag as he was chasing pitches outside the zone more frequently. The good news is that he’s still just 21 years old and I’ll be paying most attention to his O-Swing% as he repeats AA. Ideally, he lowers it back to the 20% range, which would lead to more on-base opportunities and more pitches to connect with in the zone due to a better approach. I’m looking at Clase as a solid buy-low if an owner is worried about his AA performance from last year. The ceiling is an aggressive lead-off hitter who gets on base frequently and who also has 20+HR potential and unlimited steals potential.

56) DYLAN BEAVERS (BAL):

Beavers split time between A+ and AA last year, putting up 35 doubles, 11 homers, and 27 steals in 122 games. He slashed: .289/.383/.468 — good for a 133 wRC+.

His hit tool is graded at a 30/40 on Fangraphs but both the results and the underlying data suggest there’s much more here.

In High-A, Beavers posted a Zone Contact% of 82.3% while his chase rate was just 27.7%. When he did chase, he made contact — evidenced by his upper percentile 75.6% O-Contact%.

In AA, Beavers posted a Zone Contact% of 77.4% while his chase rate rose to 39.5%. Again, when he did chase, he made contact — evidenced by his 77% O-Contact%.

The increase in his chase rate isn’t an abnormal thing to see as we just saw with Clase’s numbers as he ascended to AA. It takes time for most players to get adjusted to upper-minors pitching and Beavers maintaining his borderline-elite contact percentage on pitches outside the zone shows that he has excellent bat-to-ball skills. Beavers, much like Horvath in the same organization, will rise next year with a good showing at AA. I’d get in now, as there’s not much hype on Beavers.

57) SAMUEL ZAVALA (SDP):

2023 saw Zavala change his approach — for good and for bad. He became more passive — evidenced by his sub 50% Zone-Swing% and with that selectiveness came more discipline as he chased fewer pitches — evidenced by his 25.2% O-Swing%.

That led to his BB rate climbing to 19.4% at A ball while his K-rate remained the same at about 26% from the year before — at the same level. He posted a higher OBP as a result to go with a 140 wRC+ and also displayed more power and speed, hitting 14 homers and stealing 20 bases — a blend that Zavala has in his toolkit that we’re likely to see grow. He’s still just 19-years-old as of this writing and will be 19 as of opening day where he’ll likely start the year at A+.

Given the Padres’ aggressive approach, it’s likely we see Zavala at AA sometime next year if he can prove to handle pitching at High-A and is met with the same results he showed at Low-A last year. I think the stock is somewhat depressed when it comes to Zavala compared to just a year ago and I would look at this as a window to buy low.

58) KEVIN ALCANTARA (CHC):

We’re chasing upside with Kevin Alcantara, also known as El Jaguar. Alcantara is a toolsy athlete with plenty to dream on. His probable outcome and potential outcome vary exceedingly. Let’s take a look at his potential outcome:

Alcantara is someone who has tremendous raw power and can post gaudy HR totals with double-digit stolen bases to match. There’s a freeness to his game, a swag that’s oftentimes unmatched by anyone else on the diamond with him. That’s what’s carried him through the lower minors — his athleticism.

He makes good contact in the zone — 77.7% but also chases way too much outside the zone — 38.9%. That chase rate is something Alcantara will have to hone down but the aggressiveness is part of his game at this point. A better approach will be necessary in the upper minors.

It’s to be seen how he adjusts to pitching in the upper minors as he’ll have to keep his K rates in check but if there are adjustments made, Alcantara becomes one of the most intriguing outfield options on this list. El Jaguar is a risky bet but if it all pans out, we’re looking at one of the freer-moving athletes on the diamond, with grace and fluidity, a la Alfonso Soriano-lite.

59) JACOB MELTON (HOU):

Melton is an interesting case of someone who could likely be higher on this list. But at this point, the margins are getting razor-thin and it’s all about preference. There’s a lot to like about Melton, and I think he’ll be a big-league regular.

The power translated in-game and his speed was evident on the basepaths — hitting 23 homers and stealing 46 bases in just 103 games between A+ and AA.

He hit 5 homers in just 13 games at AA, but the underlying metrics suggest he struggled as is usually the case when making the jump from A+ to AA.

His Zone-Contact% dipped from 79.4% to 73.3% and his chase rate rose from 36.7% to 40.9%. These are numbers he’ll need to turn around as he doesn’t walk much and doesn’t hit for average nearly enough to post higher OBPs. He does have the potential to put up 20-20 seasons based on the sheer volume of plate appearances he’ll accrue if he’s an everyday corner outfielder. Melton is someone I think will be a better real-life player than a player for fantasy purposes — though he will put up seasons with legitimate counting stats given he plays every day.

60) DALTON RUSHING (LAD):

An OBP darling and a strong pull-side and opposite-field hitter. The AVG looks concerning at first glance but he finished his season at off strong at A+.

You should take a 13-game sample lightly but in his final 13 games, Rushing slashed: .293/.453/.756 while hitting 6 of his 15 home runs on the year. He closed out the year on a tear.

Now about Rushing: He’s figured out how to maximize his power potential and I think he’ll continue to do that in the upper minors while posting great BB rates and decent K rates. There’s more of a ceiling here if he can lower his K rate and put more balls in play while being better at hitting pitches higher in the zone. Despite the .228 AVG on the season, Rushing posted a .854 OPS in large part due to his high on-base numbers — something you can count on him continuously doing. I wanted to rank Rushing 3rd among Catcher prospects but couldn’t justify up-ending the child prodigy Salas. There are concerns over his defense and where he’ll play long term, however, but that’s often the case with a lot of these guys.

61) CONNOR NORBY (BAL):

Some players seem like they’ve been at AAA forever. Norby is one of them. Call it Perry Ellis syndrome or whatever you want. Over the past 2 years, Norby has played in 147 games at AAA — that amounted to 675 PA in which he’s hit 25 Home Runs and 42 Doubles. I’m not sure there’s much more to prove for Norby as he should break camp with the Orioles if they weren’t also trying out Jackson Holliday at second base.

Norby walks at a decent clip — 11.5% at AA in 2022 and 9.0% at AAA in 2023 — while keeping his K% right around the 20% mark. Over his final 95 games at AAA, Norby slashed: .302/.375/.521 while hitting 26 doubles and 17 home runs. He posted a wRC+ of 122 — a .390 wOBA — and a .220 ISO — in that span. Norby might need a change of scenery as Baltimore is just loaded with middle infield talent at the big league level and in the minors. With all the other names at the 2B position, Norby’s perceived value seems to be fairly low given what his profile suggests — a 20+ HR threat with a good hit tool and someone who will post decent OBPs, with a roughly decent floor. I’d buy in and hope he lands somewhere else in a trade and can get a full season’s worth of at-bats at 2b.

62) EDWIN ARROYO (CIN):

There’s power in the bat but the K% worries me. So does the fact that he doesn’t walk nearly enough to post high OBPs if he’s not going to hit for average either. Still, he’s just 20 and I can’t write him off completely. He’s had success in the lower minors and he’ll likely start 2024 at AA. This year will be telling when it comes to Arroyo’s perceived value and which way the arrow will point.

63) LEONARDO BALCAZAR (CIN):

Another Cincinnati bat who’s trending in the other direction, despite being ranked below Arroyo. Balcazar is a breakout candidate in 2024 as he’ll likely start the year at A ball, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Reds be aggressive and place him at A+.

Balcazar has hit for average (.322 in 2022, .324 in 2023) at both CPX and A ball the last 2 years. He’s even increased his BB% from one level to the next, reaching 15.9% last year at A. He strikes out about 25% of the time, which is worrisome as that’ll be a challenge to lower while he navigates higher levels. If he can maintain those levels and walk at a 15% clip then that is a solid outcome. The power is projectable as he looks to have added muscle to his frame in the offseason. Balcazar is someone who is trending up for me and I’m expecting a big 2024 out of him.

64) ECHEDRY VARGAS (TEX):

I ranked Vargas 19th in my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings and have him ranked 17th among Shortstops. Make that make sense. Anyway, I’m getting higher on Echedry as each day goes by. Does he play 2B or SS? It’s too early to tell, which is why I’ve included him here. Here is what I wrote in my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings:

“Not the Texas Rangers second baseman you were thinking of, huh? Well, why Vargas?

The good: Despite his low grades across the board on Fangraphs, Vargas showed the contrary. He hit for average. He hit home runs. He stole bases. What more can you ask for? He’s one of my favorite scouting non-darlings out there.

In 52 games as an 18-year-old in CPX, Vargas slashed: .315/.387/.569 (.254 ISO) to go with 11 homers and 17 steals. These numbers alone make me want to rank him in the top 5 and be proven as some sort of prophet when he ultimately takes A ball by storm and repeats the same success. What’s making me rank him here (again, razor-thin margins between rankings at this point)? I’ll get to that

The bad: A 24.3% K-rate at CPX. That’s about all I can say. Even if it’s one thing that doesn’t mean it’s not significant. One could read too deep into it or one can overlook it and say he’ll maintain that rate throughout the minors. My gut tells me he may struggle as he navigates further along the minors, increasing his K rate while not increasing his BB rate. My heart tells me he’ll adjust and in fact, lower his K-rate as he sees more pitching — effectively increasing his BA, OBP, OPS, and his power output.

To put it simply, Vargas can skyrocket on most prospect rankings if he repeats what he did at the Complex at A ball. Even if his K-rate stays the same, I’d view that as a sign of progress. You have to play the long game with this one as he’ll have plenty of time to prove if he can maintain his ISO numbers and if his hit tool is actually above the scouts’ grades.”

Keep an eye out for Echedry.

65) JEFFERSON ROJAS (CHC):

Rojas was barely 18 last year and played 70 games at A ball. He slashed: .268/.345/.404 and hit 7 home runs while adding 13 stolen bases. It’s a good outcome for someone so young at that level. He even hit .297 in his final 27 games. He struck out less than 20% and walked at a 7.5% clip. His zone coverage even looked good. His Z-contact% was 81.8% while his chase rate was just 28.8% — fairly good numbers for a player this young.

Any changes in approach that lead to his walk rate going above double digits while maintaining a sub 20% K% and we’re looking at another potential stud in the making — if he isn’t already given his plate coverage and power combination at just 18. Offensively, he’s 50s across the board — but he’s 18 and still has plenty to fill out — who’s to say there isn’t more projectability left? He’s someone who can be near the top of this list if he displays more power next year.

66) FELNIN CELESTEN (SEA):

The 18-year-old was set to debut last year but suffered a hamstring injury. There’s not much to go by besides scouting reports and video and both have drawn rave reviews. I can see Celesten starting the year in CPX and eventually finding his way to A-ball rather quickly. Seattle doesn’t have to rush him, but the profile suggests he should be ready. Given the fact that he didn’t play an affiliated game last year, Celesten comes in ranked 20th among shortstops. I know in my heart of hearts this ranking is probably too low. I’ll come to revisit this next year when he’s inevitably in the top 10.

67) TYLER LOCKLEAR (SEA):

Locklear is someone who had to overcome injury in 2023 which potentially led to his playing below expectation. He still finished 43rd in the final HitTilt+ rankings for 2023, posting a .214 ISO and .410 wOBA across A+ and AA:

2024 is the year Locklear can increase his perceived value and have it skyrocket. This is the time to buy as his value might not be lower at any point than it is now.

68) EDGAR QUERO (CHW):

Thrust into a sticky situation as a 20 year old by starting out in AA during the tacky ball era. It wasn’t long ago when Edgar Quero was considered the highest riser amongst catcher prospects. It was literally after the 2022 season which saw him hit 17 HR as a 19 year old in A ball while slashing .312/.435/.530 and posting a .200+ ISO and 150 wRC+.

He skipped A+ entirely in 2023 and went straight to AA

His numbers during the season when the tacky ball was in play were: .242/.378/.327 to go with just 2 homers in 60 games.

Since July 14th (Tacky ball era over): Quero slashed .276/.384/.386 to go with 4 homers in his final 41 games. Not great, but a lot better. He was traded after 10 games post tacky ball to the White Sox so I’m giving him a pass here as that isn’t an easy adjustment. In fact, nothing was set up easily for the 20-year-old in 2023 and he struggled

The hit tool didn’t go anywhere and the power should tick back up. 2024 will be a bounce-back season for Edgar Quero as he’ll have a full offseason under his belt with the White Sox to go with experience at AA, while also still being just 20 years old on opening day. Buy as low as you can on the younger Quero and reap the reward when his perceived value rises back to where it originally was following the 2022 season.

69) THAYRON LIRANZO (LAD):

I know there’s a long runway ahead but the upside with Liranzo is one of my favorites to speculate on.

While Liranzo showed power in 2022 in CPX, the rest was lagging, although he did show a bit of plate discipline walking at a 12.3% clip. He raised that mark to 16.7% while hitting 24 Home Runs in 94 games at A ball as a 19 year old and slashing .272/.400/.562. The raw power is enticing and the results here have me going out on a limb ranking him ahead of another Dodgers catcher.

Even his SwStr% was lower than 15% which is a good sign for a player so young and if he can maintain that level while in the upper minors, we’re looking at one of the top catching prospects in the game in the coming years. Look where he’s located among the other top prospects when comparing HitTilt+ and SwStr%:

Yes, he was that good last year. 2024 will prove to be a challenge, but that’s not stopping me from going all in on Liranzo. This ranking is lower than where I want to put him — which is somewhere in the Dalton Rushing range, but I’m holding back as he still has a bit to prove. I would still be buying in bunches as his perceived value has not completely kicked in yet. The kid has all the tools to be an absolute beast.

70) BROOKS LEE (MIN):

You didn’t think I’d do it, did you? Our first college shortstop bat is Brooks Lee and he comes in at 70th. Brooks Lee is a good hitter with a good approach and should probably be higher on this list if I was putting his hit-tool first — see Jackson Merrill.

Lee will hit for average — a .270-.290 outcome is likely — and will post modest OBPs because of it, although he doesn’t walk much so we won’t see any gaudy discrepancies between his average and OBP. Like Merrill, Lee has a good idea of what he’s doing at the plate and won’t strike out nearly as much as some of the higher-upside guys on this list. We’re also looking at a probable outcome of mid-teens home runs yearly. A good if not really good real-life player — just not for fantasy purposes unless he taps into more power potential.

71) JACE JUNG (DET):

The Tigers recently gave Colt Keith a six-year extension with three club options and he’s locked in to play 2B in 2024. That doesn’t rule out a move to 3B for Keith in the long term to make room for Jace Jung. Jung has less defensive versatility and second base seems like the only real option long term for him.

Offensively, Jung is a juggernaut — with a plus power tool that translates in-game and a hit tool that may have been graded too low, as he hit for average (.284) at AA last year. He also put up a 154 wRC+ and a .279 ISO at the level. The power is there but lingering questions remain about his rising K rate — it’s risen every year and at every level he’s played at, reaching 26.8% last year at AA. I’m concerned about the K rate because the trend here is that it’ll rise to over 30% once he faces big-league pitching but if he can make adjustments and keep it at around 25% or below, then we’re looking at a bat first, power-hitting second baseman that can slot into Detroit’s infield and as a part of their rebuild. We’re looking at 20+ HR upside with a decent to slightly above-average hit tool and barely any speed — if that’s your thing.

72) CARLOS JORGE (CIN):

Life was looking red and rosy for Jorge early on in 2023. Then he got the call to A+ and bumped his K from 19.7% all the way to 31.9% (23 games). It looks ugly at first glance but 1) it’s a small sample and 2) I have an even smaller sample to allow Reds fans to take a deep breath:

Let’s dig a little deeper into that stint at A+:

Jorge ran a 19.7% K-rate in A ball to go with a 13.2% BB rate. He slashed: .295/.400/.483 with 9 Home Runs and 31 steals in 86 games.

Now back to his 23-game sample at A+:

His first 12 games: .178/.213/.178 with 0 HR

BB% : 4.3% / K% : 42.6%

His final 11 games: .302/.340/.628 with 3 HR

BB% : 6.4% / K% : 21.3%

He brought the K% back down to his normal levels although the BB rate wasn’t back up to where he had it in A ball. Again, a small sample — and then breaking it down to an even smaller split sample. Which Jorge will we see in 2024? He’s still just 20 years old and if that 32% K-rate is scaring an owner away, I’d use it as an opportunity to buy low and see if he can normalize his rates. There’s decent-to-legit power in the bat with plenty of steal potential to go with his near-plus hit tool. There’s a lot to like despite the thorns on the rose drawing blood at first glance at his A+ numbers.

73) THOMAS SAGGESE (STL):

Saggese finished the year 49th in the HitTilt+ rankings for 2023. Here are some of his numbers across AA and AAA:

His AAA sample lowered his overall stat line, especially his BB rate and wOBA.

After being traded from Texas to St. Louis, Saggese played in 33 games at the Cardinals AA affiliate and slashed: .331/.403/.662 while hitting 10 home runs and posting an absurd .452 wOBA.

He was just as good at the Texas affiliate slashing: .313/.379/.512 with 15 home runs in 93 games.

He profiles best as a 2nd Baseman down the line in my opinion and will likely stick at the position. Saggese is someone else who could and should be higher on this list but I’m leaving him here for now as the difference between some of these players is starting to become more razor-thin. We’re looking at 20+HR potential with a hit tool that can be plus given his swing decisions improve along with his plate approach. He’s also somebody who can absolutely blow up these rankings if he were to improve his patience at the plate while maintaining his power — and while displaying those traits in AAA this year.

74) JAMES TRIANTOS (CHC):

Simply put, we just need to see more in-game power from Triantos. We got a glimpse of it in the AFL so let’s see if that translates over to this year.

He has the ability to hit for average and to hit for power but we’ve yet to see the power display consistently. He was just 20 all of last year and will be 21 going into 2024 where he’ll most likely start at AA. If there’s any hint of a power barrage from Triantos, his stock will explode because he posts low K-rates and hits for average. Two boxes are checked — we’re just waiting for him to tap into the raw power that he does have. Maybe 2024 is the year. I’d be trying to buy low or add and wait through the 2024 season to see what we have here. If the power does show up, he’s probably 6-8 spots too low in these rankings given his profile.

75) JORDAN BECK (COL):

Jordan Beck went 25-20 last year between A+ (76 games) and AA (50 games) with most of his production coming in at the High-A level. He maintained his BB rate between levels but increased his K rate by 9 points from nearly 21% to around 30%.

In other words, he was an absolute beast at A+ and fell off mightily once he reached AA — again not an abnormality as it seems to be a recurring theme here. Let’s look at it a bit deeper.

At A+, Beck ran a Z-contact rate of 79.8% and a chase rate of 28.7%

At AA, Beck ran a Z-contact rate of just 61.5% and a chase rate of 31.4%.

He has zone recognition as he maintained his ability to not chase pitches out of the zone, at least on par with his A+ numbers. The number that jumps out is his zone contact and the fact that it got significantly worse once he was at AA. He hit 20 homers in 76 games at A+ and just 5 homers in 50 games at AA — in large part because he simply wasn’t making good contact, or contact at all on pitches he should’ve been barreling in the zone. It was his first taste of AA so it’s not a red flag that you have to wave around like it’s the end of the world. He’ll likely start at AA to start 2024 and if he can get that zone contact rate back up to nearly the same levels as he had in A+, we’re looking at a potential 25-30+ HR threat who can chip in steals. It only helps his cause that he’ll be playing his games at Coors Field. The ceiling is fairly high with Beck but it doesn’t come without its risk. That’s a common theme and can be said about most players, both above him and below him on this list.

76) CAM COLLIER (CIN):

Cam Collier is a big kid. And he’s still only recently turned 19-years-old. There’s promising raw power ability with Collier though we’ve yet to really see it. This year at A+ will be the Collier coming out party.

He finished A ball especially strong last year hitting .315 in his final 35 games. His OBP was .417 due to a 13.9% BB rate in that timeframe. Collier’s going to walk, his approach seems solid and he’s kept pace since he’s been up in affiliated ball. The question is how much will he strike out as he moves up? He ran a 23.0% K rate over 111 games at A ball last year which isn’t that bad considering he was barely an 18-year-old at the time. He should’ve been in a high school classroom learning about rocks or something. Is that what they do in geology? I don’t remember. The point is, that Collier may turn out to have a precocious approach at the plate as he matures.

The hit tool looks to be better than graded and all we’re waiting on is that plus raw power everyone raved about when he was drafted 18th overall in the 2022 draft. Patience will be key with Collier, though, as he’s still younger than most players drafted last year and he already has two years of affiliated pro ball under his belt. More like one full season and a stint at CPX, but it remains that he’s slowly being exposed to more experience and he’s still super young. Don’t forget about Cam Collier in 2024.

77) JEFERSON QUERO (MIL):

If you’re a Milwaukee fan, I apologize in advance. I know you expected to see Quero a bit higher on this list and while that’s justified I just happen to like the other names better. If it’s any consolation, Jackson Chourio is my #1 prospect in baseball, ahead of Wyatt Langford and Jackson Holliday.

There’s a lot to like with the older Quero such as his proximity to the big leagues, the fact that he has shown a legitimate power profile in AA, and that he’ll undoubtedly stick at the catcher position being one of the better defensive backstops in the game.

This ranking isn’t indicative of Quero’s lack of perceived value because it’s pretty high right now. I just think if you can sell high to an owner who is looking to buy based on his current perceived value this is the time to do it. I also think Quero will be one of the better major leaguers on this list for a long time. Both can be true.

78) MOISES BALLESTEROS (CHI):

While short and stocky (think Alejandro Kirk), Ballesteros has a good hit tool and a really good raw power profile. The question is will the raw power translate to in game power once he’s in the big leagues? I’m not going to bet against him as he was just 19 years old during the 2023 season which saw him play at 3 different levels (A, A+, AA).

The fact that he reached AA is impressive in and of itself, but I’ll stick to his numbers at A and A + which are still great levels for a 19-year-old to be at. He slashed .274/.394/.457 with 8 Home Runs in 56 games. He played another 56 games in A+, slashing: .300/.364/..463 while adding another 6 Home Runs. His BB% went down from nearly 17% to nearly 10% and his K% went up from 12.4% to 19.5%.

Is this cause for sounding an alarm? No. But it’s worth noting. He’s still young, and I love the raw power and if he starts 2024 in AA, he’s someone I’m going to be keeping an eye on to see how that power displays.

79) BLAZE JORDAN (BOS):

Jordan has been a name to watch for several years now as he displayed prodigious power as a teen. As a 20-year-old in A+, Jordan slashed: .324/.385/.533 and hit 12 Home Runs in 73 games. He also managed to maintain a K% below 15% which is an encouraging sign.

After getting the call to AA, he struggled but still managed to have a K% of just 13.8% and got hit with bad luck with a BABIP of .268, much lower than his .349 mark at A+.

He should repeat AA in 2024 and I’m expecting better results to come with it. Boston has Triston Casas locked in as their first baseman so a position change may be in the cards for Jordan. That’s a good problem to have and a problem that probably doesn’t need to be addressed for a few years at least.

80) BRYCE ELDRIDGE (SFG):

Eldridge is somebody who, looking back, will probably be too low on this list. The upside is tantalizing as he’s listed at 6’7’’, 225 with potential plus-plus raw power. I see San Francisco trying him out at first base next year or in the future given his frame.

He showed in a small sample in 2023 that he can hit too, slashing: .294/.400/.505 with 6 Home Runs in 31 games between CPX and A ball. His BB% was 15.4% and his K% was 26.2%. There’s still a long, long runway left for Eldridge as he was just 18 years old in his debut last year and there’s no reason to rush him beyond A ball or A+ to start 2024.

I would be looking to add Eldridge in most leagues. He’s a blow-up candidate if he proves to have a standout ‘24 season.

81) LUKE KEASCHALL (MIN):

Keaschall played just 28 games above rookie ball, debuting last year in CPX — and then moving on to A and A+ for his 28-game sample.

Between A and A+, Keaschall slashed: .298/.406/.500 with a 146 wRC+. He held a BB rate of 13.3% and a K rate of 18.0%. Really promising stuff — and Keaschall is another name that I’m probably a bit too low on heading into 2024. But remember at this point the difference in rankings is razor thin and mostly based on personal preference. I could’ve ranked Keaschall as high as 10, maybe higher — because I love his profile and I see him posting another 140+ wRC+ season in 2024 as a 21-year-old. We’re also getting a decent power tool and some plus speed to go with it. Keaschall is a name that should be on your radars heading into this year if he isn’t already.

82) JERAL PEREZ (LAD):

Perez is a speculative add for anyone who loves young players who excelled in the DSL or CPX.

Projectable frame for a 19-year-old, listed at 6’0 180 — even before filling out — he hit 11 HR in 53 Complex games last year. He slashed: .257/.389/.503 while running a BB rate of 16.3% and a K rate of 23.1%.

He got promoted to A ball for a 7-game stint to end the season and what was most promising is that he ran similar BB and K rates as he did in CPX (18.5% / 22.2%). There’s a power/speed combination in his profile and the power might be the most enticing to speculate on. He’ll likely start 2024 in A ball and given a full season’s worth of at-bats, we’re looking at double-digit home runs and double-digit stolen bases to go with a .200+ ISO. If he pulls that off, the 19-year-old’s stock is going to skyrocket this time next year. Add accordingly.

83) KEVIN McGONIGLE (DET):

The third Tiger on this list. And surely the last? McGonigle was all of 18 years old last year and in a 12-game sample at A ball, he hit .350/.438/.475 with 1 homer — a 151 wRC+ and .430 wOBA. His BB and K rates stick out the most for a player this young. He walked at a 14.6% clip and struck out at a 10.4% clip. I know it’s 12 games, but it’s a pattern that carried over from his 9 games at CPX where he walked at a 24.4% clip and struck out at an 11.1% clip. Alright, I feel like I wrote the word “clip” four too many times. But you get the picture — these are Amador numbers, and while McGonigle doesn’t have the same elite hit tool as Amador, he does have a plus hit tool and he may be showing the same approach at the plate at such a young age. He’ll be 19 to start 2024 and he’ll likely start at A ball, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him at A+ by mid-season — posting a BB/K > 1.0, and a .400+ wOBA. He’s so young and there’s such a long runway left that there may be more projectability in his frame. We’ll get a glimpse of it this year. Definitely a name to watch and to get in on early.

84) BLAKE DUNN (CIN):

Before you crucify me for including a 24-year-old who started out at A+ last year and finished at AA this high, hear me out. Blake Dunn rakes — and Blake Dunn runs. He does it all. He’s criminally underrated in prospect circles and is another asset in a loaded crop of talent for the Cincinnati Reds.

He started at A+ and slashed: .278/.411/.460 with 8 homers and 19 steals in 47 games. Good for a 149 wRC+.

He then finished the season at AA where he slashed: .332/.433/.556 with 15 homers and 35 steals in 77 games. Good for a 163 wRC+ — He had a .514 wOBACON at the level which shows his elite production when he puts the ball in play.

His season totals come out to 23 homers and 54 steals in 126 games. He kept his K rate in check at just 23.4% while displaying a rare combination of power and speed. If this is the upside we’re looking at when it comes to Dunn then he’s going to be an absolute steal wherever you get him and for however much you acquire him.

He has a good frame and swing to maintain these power numbers and his speed at his size is something you don’t see often. I mean, he stole 54 bases and was caught only 7 times for an 89% success rate.

Dunn will be 25 to start 2024 and while older and more overlooked than most of his cohorts, he has a chance to make an impact for the Reds as early as this year. I’m not sure what his ceiling is once he faces big-league pitching, but he seems to bring a rare blend of power and speed at a price not nearly indicative of his potential. I’d be looking to take a flier on Dunn and hope he’s a late bloomer — it can’t hurt.

85) GABRIEL RINCONES JR (PHI):

Rincones Jr hits the ball hard. — extremely hard. He posted a 90th percentile EV of 107.3 mph — that’s Machado/Soto territory — and his max exit velocity was 113.3 mph.

He split time between A and A+ last year posting a wRC+ of 117. He’s not hitting a ton of homers yet as he’ll need to launch at a better angle to make the most of his elite EV numbers, which is certainly possible as he develops. His Z-contact% was 80.3% at A ball and was 72.2% at A+. His chase rates were 24.8% and 29.1%, respectively — good numbers. It’s led to a high discrepancy between his average and OBP which should continue. There’s a lot to like with Rincones’ potential peak as the power numbers haven’t displayed as they should. I think there’s a potential breakout this year and we see more homers from him. He’s graded low for speed but managed to steal 32 bases last year — I mentioned in another post of mine how scouting grades for speed/base running can be a bit wonky and unreliable. The speed is real and he’s shown a willingness to run (84% success rate). He’s old for his level but he’ll be at AA soon where we’ll get a better idea if his chase rates remain low and if he makes adjustments to his launch angle to make better use of his elite EVs. There’s big power potential in the bat and it’s worth a shot to add him in deeper leagues.

86) HECTOR RODRIGUEZ (CIN):

I wanted to rank Rodriguez higher but I have concerns about his plate approach. Let’s start with the good because I absolutely love what he’s done as a 19-year-old in A ball.

The Good: Rodriguez hit 16 homers and stole 18 bases at Low-A in 101 games. He displayed good power potential given his size due to his quick hands and loft in his swing. He hit for average despite walking just 6.1% of the time. Maybe he can keep this up. He’s consistently hit .290+ while posting just modest OBPs because of his low walk rates. He’s an anomaly to me because he just keeps hitting and the metrics show he’s bound to regress. Some players don’t and keep this up. Rodriguez may be one of them.

The Bad: He barely walks as mentioned above and he swings at just about everything. Let’s take a look at his zone and out-of-zone rates:

A: His zone-contact rate was good at 78.9% but his chase rate was 46.8%. That’s freakishly high yet he still managed to hit .293 at the level.

A+: His zone-contact rate was 80% — still really good — but his chase rate was 57.5% yet he still managed to hit .294 at the level.

He’s defying the odds and looking at his film you can see that he has a good feel for hitting. I don’t know how he’ll hold up in the upper minors — but if he somehow manages to hit .280 and above while likely keeping his chase rates this high, then he’s a hitting savant — with a solid power/speed potential that’s reminiscent of a young Ozzie Albies. That should put him higher on this list come next year.

87) VICTOR SCOTT II (STL):

Victor Scott II can win you a single category by his lonesome. That might not even be an exaggeration. Scott stole 94 bases in 141 games last year between A+ and AA. Ninety-four! Not quite Billy Hamilton's numbers when he stole 155 bases in 2012 — but while Hamilton added just 2 homers, Scott II hit 9 homers. There’s tremendous value in a hit first bat with elite speed who also has the potential for double-digit home runs. If Scott II could crank out 10-12 homers while adding these types of steals numbers then he’s an extremely valuable asset in fantasy.

88) JUSTYN-HENRY MALLOY (DET):

Justyn-Henry Malloy should’ve been up in the big leagues last year but instead, he got a 135-game sample at AAA where he continued to post elite ratios and showed incredible patience at the plate. It didn’t matter what pitch you threw him, he wasn’t going to chase. Seriously, check out his chase rates among pitches:

Fastball (1403 pitches): 18.6% chase rate

Breaking Balls (927 pitches): 17.7% chase rate

He simply doesn’t swing at bad pitches which will lead to high OBPs because he walks at nearly a 20% rate. His 90th percentile EV sits at 102.4 mph which is a tick or two below league average.

Malloy isn’t going to run so his power has to carry over to the big leagues. If he can manage 20+HR at his peak while posting high OBPs somewhere in the middle of Detroit’s lineup, he can provide solid counting stats for someone in need. And he’s been Major-League-ready for over a year now.

89) DRUW JONES (ARI):

Everyone knows about the raw talent this kid possesses. It’s now about producing the results in a full season of pro ball. His underlying metrics are worrying in the samples that he has shown, but with a talent like this and the fact that he’s only 20 years old, I won’t be completely out on him. He deserves to be on this list considering his potential is somewhere near the top of it.

90) NELSON RADA (LAA):

It’s hard to believe that Rada is still only 18 years old. He had an incredible showing two years ago at the DSL at just 16 years old and was up at Low-A last year as a 17-year-old. There’s so much to like about Rada’s game. He has modest zone contact and chase rates but they’re paired with excellent bat-to-ball skills — evidenced by his 77.2% O-Contact%.

Speed is a big part of his game as he stole 55 bases last year but the power has yet to develop — which isn’t a surprise given he’s yet to fill out his frame. There is pop in his bat and while he only hit 2 homers last year, I’m expecting to see an uptick at some point as he matures. I’ll write this now — If Rada can develop into more power and produce it in games, his stock is going to rise. But we already know that.

91) AIDAN MILLER (PHI):

Blessed with a lightning-quick bat and plus raw power, Aidan Miller fits the profile of a player you’re looking for at the 3rd Base position. Don’t be fooled by his 20-game sample last year in which he hit no homers. The power is there, the question is will he be able to hit to utilize that power and remain in the lineup everyday.

He’s only 19 years old (somehow older than Cam Collier, though the profile is the same) and will get his first full season of affiliated pro ball this year. There isn’t much more to write on Miller outside of the fact that he’s one of the players I’m higher on at the 3B position from last year’s draft. If there are any hit concerns, I think Miller will figure that out while showing a good approach at the plate. If the power comes sooner rather than later, then we’re looking at one of the faster climbers from last year’s draft that might not have as much helium as some other names in the class.

92) ANDREW COSSETTI (MIN):

He mashed in college, at one point hitting 26 HR in a 53 game span in 2021, and he’s mashed in the lower minors. He’s a bit on the older side as he’ll be 24 on opening day but he didn’t really start playing pro ball until last year (1 GP in 2022 at CPX).

In 2023, Cossetti slashed: .287/.426/.534 to go with a .248 ISO and a 163 wRC+ while hitting 15 homers in 95 games between A and A+.

His zone-contact is slightly concerning as it was 76.6% at Low-A and 70.2% at High-A. His chase rate was just 25.9% at High-A while there’s definitely some swing-and-miss to his game I think the power is going to continue to show. His 90th percentile EV is 104.8 to go with an 8% Barrel rate so the power should play

I think he’s proven that he’s ready to take the leap to AA where I think he’ll continue to mash. This is one of my deeper dynasty buys at the Catcher position but since I’m so high on him I had no choice but to put him here, ahead of some more notable names — finishing 17th in the final HitTilt+ rankings for players 23 and under:

He frequently gets on base and the power is without question here. Go add him in bunches where you can as the stock is going to continue to rise. His perceived value is nowhere near a 7th overall ranking as of this writing, but you’re looking at a potential offensive beast at the catcher position that you can buy at a really low price.

93) YOHANDY MORALES (WAS):

Another absolute beast — built like a truck. And hit’s like he’s built like one too. He’s posted EV’s of greater than 110 mph in college and hit absolute tanks. Listed at 6’4 225, Morales is known for his plus power yet showed in his 42-game stint last year that he can hit for average too.

He started at CPX and finished the year off at AA. Here are his slash lines:

CPX (2 games): .400/.400/.400

A (18 games): .390/.448/.571

A+ (18 games): .314/.400/.443

AA (4 games): .286/.412/.357

He walked 10.1% of the time and struck out 19.0% of the time — actually lowering his K-rate in each level he progressed, which is a good sign.

He didn’t hit a homer, but those are expected to come. And when they do, Morales will shoot up this prospect ranking. He’ll be 22 this year and will likely start at AA. Morales is one of my favorite power targets this year and if what we saw in his affiliated pro debut is a sign of things to come with his approach, his ceiling may be even higher than initially thought. Let’s not wait until his power barrage starts in mid-May for you to scoop him up. Get in early.

94) YOPHERY RODRIGUEZ (MIL):

Yophery is a bet of mine and the bet is he’s in most top 100 prospect ranking lists by the end of the year. Those in the Milwaukee organization rave about Rodriguez and he oozes all of the potential you look for in a 5-tool prospect. The speed might take a dip as he fills out but the power is in abundance. Everyone will be on the Yophery train by the end of 2024.

95) JAVIER MOGOLLON (CHW):

Mogollon was the only player with at least 150 PA to have a:

BB% > 13%

K% < 15%

ISO > .250

HR >= 10 and SB >= 10

He’s the only one on the list. And he did it in the DSL as a 17-year-old. He’s slight of stature but that didn’t stop him from posting a .267 ISO and popping 10 Home Runs in just 47 games. We’re looking at a potential riser here. Not many people are in on him as of yet, but this time next year he could be nearing the top of this list if he can prove his power is for real and if he can come close to matching the success that he had in the DSL — especially if he opens the year at A ball as an 18-year-old.

96) HAYDN MCGEARY (CHI):

Another potential plus-plus power bat who posted a max EV of 119 mph last year. McGeary finished the season with 104 games at AA under his belt as he slashed: .255/.382/.435 while hitting 16 Home Runs as a 23-year-old.

Matt Mervis is entrenched as the Cubs “future” first basemen but McGeary could be looking over his shoulder if Mervis struggles again and if McGeary can have a positive 2024 season. If that happens to be the case, McGeary may be called up for a look sooner rather than later. The power potential alone is enough for a speculative buy on McGeary for the right price. If you’re holding him, I’d stand pat and see what we have here once the 2024 season gets underway.

97) YORFRAN MEDINA (LAD):

Absolute helium. Add now before the name takes off with a good showing in 2024:

Your eyes aren’t deceiving you. He really put up those numbers while repeating DSL. Coming stateside will be the big test in evaluating his perceived value, but I am going to get in early.

98) RAMON RAMIREZ (KCR):

What’s a player who has only played in the DSL doing here? Well, all Ramirez did in the DSL was hit. He slashed: .344/.440/.615 with a .270 ISO while walking more than he struck out. Did I mention he was 17 for part of last year and will be 18 years old on opening day this year?

Ramirez looks the part and looks like he’ll stick at the catcher position while providing a plus hit tool and plus power profile. This is a must-add asset in deeper formats before the going gets hot and it looks it will be sooner rather than later.

99) RAYNER ARIAS (SFG):

Arias had his season cut short due to injury but in the 16 games he played at DSL, he hit 4 homers and stole 4 bags while walking more than he struck out. He also slashed .414/.539/.793. It’s a shame his season got cut short but Arias is still just 17 and the runway is long as hell to put him any higher than this — but I’ll end the note with this: Arias is a potential top 10 prospect in the future given his projectability and I’d look to acquire him just about everywhere as the price won’t be the same after a good 2024 showing.

100) NATHAN MARTORELLA (SDP):

Martorella is someone I wanted to rank higher. He posts high OBP’s relative to his average and has the ability to hit for average and power. I already think his value is leveled out as people are aware of him so there’s not much more floor or upside given his perceived value.

Martorella played 112 games at A+ last year and slashed: .259/.371/.450 with 16 Home Runs and good BB and K rates — something he’ll likely be able to keep up given his approach. I’m not sure if there’s much more power potential here than what we’ve already seen but Martorella is a player to watch going into 2024. I’d love to be proven wrong, and if I am, this ranking will start to look silly.

101) BEN RICE (NYY):

Ben Rice slashed .324/.434/.615 with 20 Home Runs in 73 games between A+ and AA. He’s a bit on the older side as he’ll be 25 years old on opening day but that didn’t stop him from posting otherwise absurd numbers in 2023.

His BB% was 13.3% and his K% was 18.7% which seem sustainable so I wouldn’t worry too much about his age here. He just happens to be a late bloomer in prospect circles. I may be ranking him too low here out of caution because he hasn’t played more than 50 games at AA and he’s almost 25. I think I’ll regret this ranking as he seems to be someone who will hit plus and show decent power — whether it’s at catcher or first base.

Taking HitTilt+ and comparing it to SwStr%, check out where Ben Rice lands on this plot:

Sandwiched right between Henry Davis and Jackson Holliday. Now that is someone to buy, especially if you’re in a deep league where nobody’s yet heard of him nor is paying attention to him. It’s time to pay attention.

102) IVAN MELENDEZ (ARI):

The Good: Melendez hit 30 Home Runs between A+ and AA last year while maintaining .270+ BA at both levels. The raw power is off the charts and he’s shown the ability to utilize it in games dating back to his college days all the way up to AA.

The Bad: Melendez doesn’t walk much and strikes out way too much. He has sub 9% BB rates and his K % at A+ was 33.6% and was 35.3% at AA. As a 23 year old. This is just who he is at this point. I don’t blame you if you’re chasing the obvious power outcome but as he advances levels the K% may pose risks for a negative overall outcome.

I’d hold as of now or even sell to an owner if you can use the power output and counting stats as a selling point as I’m not convinced he’ll lower those K rates enough to be an effective big leaguer and to reach his potential of 30+ Home Runs yearly.

103) JOSUE BRICENO (DET):

Briceno has a good approach at the plate with some power to boot. He hit 7 homers in 44 games at the complex while slashing .325/.404/.550 before he got a little baby dip into A ball. He only played 11 games there but he still maintained the strong plate approach — 14.6% BB rate and 16.7% K rate — that he demonstrated at the complex. He’s still slightly projectable as he’s still just 19 and all of 6’4, 200 already. He may already be filled out, but you never know. He’ll likely be a 1B at the next level when he gets there. There’s potential power beast written all over him.

104) ADRIAN SANTANA (TBR):

The 31st pick in the 2023 draft, Santana is a high-upside stash, and the cost likely won’t be much. He’s got 80-grade speed and about 30-grade size — something he stresses to build upon. Santana has called himself a switch-hitting Trea Turner, which if were to turn out true, we’d be looking at a fantasy superstar.

He needs to get bigger, he’s listed at just 155 pounds. I’m sure I weighed that much in High School and I’m a lot bigger now. I’m giving him an offseason or two to fill out his frame and realize his self-proclaimed prophecy that he is in fact, the next Trea Turner. At this point in the rankings, the margins are razor thin, so I thought I’d throw Santana a bone and rank him 104th. He wasn’t selected 31st overall as a charity pick, after all.

Honorable Mentions: Ricardo Cabrera, Luke Adams, John Cruz, Christopher Familia, Luis Lara, Eduardo Quintero, Yoelin Cespedes, Deyvison De Los Santos, Brock Vradenburg, Welbyn Francisca, Zach Dezenzo, Dillon Head, Justin Crawford, Chase Davis, Luis Baez, Robert Calaz, Miguel Bleis, Andy Pages, Alberto Rodriguez, Jace Avina, Zac Veen, Jaison Chourio, Alexander Canario, Won-Bin Cho, Joey Loperfido, Juan Baez, Colin Houck, Kristian Robinson, George Valera, Ralphy Velasquez, Brayan Rocchio, Tai Peete, Agustin Ramirez, Ignacio Alvarez, Alexander Albertus, Brandon Winokur, Yeremi Cabrera