Spring Tilt - NL Edition - Hitters

We’ll go over 15 notable prospect performances during Spring Training from the NL. Hitters only today. And like previous posts, I’ll post the start and end dates of the minor league levels in case you’ve missed them. We now only have 3 full days left of no real baseball. Get your coffee ready and know that everything is going to be okay by mid-week. There will be real regular-season action on Thursday.

The AAA season begins March 29th, a day after the MLB season gets going. The AAA season will end on September 22nd. That’s nearly a full six months of AAA ball on the docket for 2024, which should be exciting.

Low-A, High-A, and AA will all begin their seasons on Friday, April 5th. So we’ll have a full week of Major League Baseball before the real prospecting fun at the lower levels and AA can begin. Low-A and High-A will end their regular seasons on September 8th, while AA will finish its regular season on September 15th.

The CPX leagues will begin on May 4th this year and will end on July 25th. It’s been moved up a month from previous years. The DSL should start around the same time as it did in 2023 which was the first week of June.

NL Notable Performances during Spring Training:

Hitters:

James Wood (WAS):

It was recently announced that Wood is going to start the season at AAA — the highest level he’ll have played at so far in his young career. And if his play during the Spring was any indication, he’s not that far off from the show. The Nats showed just how they felt about him by giving him 57 plate appearances during the spring. Wood put up a 218 wRC+, hit 4 homers, and stole 3 bases while slashing: .364/.509/.705 — displaying that unicorn-like blend of prodigious power and unfailing speed (given his size). The EVs were fantastic and the sprint speed was eye-opening. He is going to be a baseball savant’s savant.

The more encouraging sign to me was the K rate. I wrote all offseason how Wood’s K rate was the only real yellow flag in his game at this point and this spring he posted a 22.8% K rate to go with a 19.3% walk rate. Now, when I predicted that he’d lower his K rate in my top OF Prospects article, I didn’t think he’d go as low as the low 20s. He’s going to be an absolute beast if he can even manage a K rate in the 25-27% range. Here is what I wrote about Wood coming into the season before Spring training:

Wood has been in my top 5 OF for two years now and the upside shows why. I actually don’t think he had that bad a year last year, only confirming my belief that he’ll be a power-hitting specimen at the big league level. We’ll get to that later. First, let me mention why he’s 4th on this list:

This type of upside is freakish. We’re looking at plus speed and plus-plus power coming from a kid who’s 6’6 maybe 6’7’’ — and given his frame he’s likely to retain his speed and steal bases in the future.

Now let’s get to his 2023 season. He split time between A+ and AA hitting 26 homers and stealing 18 bags in 132 games. He had a .255 ISO and a 132 wRC+ — as a 20-year-old.

Now let’s get to the concerns. His K rate. He struck out 31.9% of the time — yet he still managed to put up good numbers. Will he drop his K rate enough so that he’ll hit consistently?

Let’s look at his first 40 games at AA. He slashed: .207/.312/.421 and struck out 31.8% of the time.

In his final 47 games at AA, he slashed: .281/.354/.551 but struck out 35.4% of the time.

He hit more and he hit harder while striking out more, that’s both promising and concerning. I think it’s promising that he’s putting up these numbers despite the K rate as we’ve seen younger players adapt and lower the strikeouts as they’ve matured and ascended through the upper minors. I think that’ll be the case with Wood. We’re not necessarily looking at someone who will drop his K rate to 20% but is it possible that he drops it to the 25-28% range? I believe so. And if he were to do that, the probability of reaching his ceiling increases — a 35+HR potential bat to go with 15-20 steals a year is a nice asset to have in fantasy.

This Spring has made it look like his probable outcome just got a whole lot more palpable. I’m really excited about Wood’s future and have been sounding the horn on him, despite the K concerns from last year.

Jung Hoo Lee (SFG):

Lee is showing the same plate approach prowess that he showed when he was playing over in the KBO. He’s walking more than he strikes out and he’s not striking out a whole lot. He struck out 3 times in 33 plate appearances this Spring. Lee slashed: .414/.485/.586 with 2 doubles, a homer, and 2 stolen bases in his small sample. He’s walking at about a 12% clip which is around the same rate he had in the KBO last year which points to an above-average to high OBP floor given his hitting prowess. The hitting is real and he’s going to be a lock-and-key component to the Giants offense this year. He’s turning heads because the transition from the KBO to the Majors is looking like it’s going to be rather easy for him.

Termarr Johnson (PIT):

I mentioned this offseason that Johnson was looking more like a power tool over hit tool guy ever since last year, but do not discount the hit tool going forward. He was a hit-tool first guy coming into pro ball out of high school but he’s run into more power while his averages have plummeted. I still ranked Johnson high and view him as a potential top 2B prospect option in the game. This Spring, Johnson slashed: .348/.400/.652 with 2 homers in 25 plate appearances. The homers he hit had EVs of 104.1 mph and 103.1 mph and they came in the same game. His 90th percentile EV last year was around 105 mph. There’s legitimate power upside with Termarr and I’m not giving up on the hit tool just yet. There are still good enough bat-to-ball skills which will allow him to hit for average. He can adjust on the fly and has great hands. Here is what I wrote about Termarr in my Top 100 Dynasty Hitting Prospects article:

Everyone is wondering where that notorious hit tool went. He’s hit .275, .244, .242 across 3 levels in the past 2 years.

The good: They were paired with OBP’s in the .400’s as he’s walking at over a 20% clip. Remember, he’s still just 19 and the approach looks good, albeit passive at times. I think the bat still has some life in it and the hit tool surfaces as he gets more comfortable.

More good: He maintained a wRC+ over 140 at both A and A+ last year in over 105 games. He added 18 home runs and stole 10 bases. There is a power profile in here that a few years ago was kind of ignored — like an old person eating a Werther’s on a park bench. You never see an old person eating a Werther’s on a park bench. Back to Termarr Johnson. There’s legitimate 20-25 HR power in his bat and it’s not like the hit tool just vanished. He has to navigate the upper minors and with the profile in place, it’s a good bet he figures it out. And even if this is just a .260-.270 bat, the 20% BB rates suggest OBP’s in the low to mid .400’s. Things are looking up for Johnson — there’s potential here to be one of the top 2B prospects in the league as he matures and treads through the upper minors. If there’s an owner in your league worried about the low averages, I’d take this as an opportunity to pounce on the opportunity to acquire Termarr Johnson for fair value.

The buy-low window may have temporarily shut after his 2 homer game and scores of people hyping him up, but he’s still a target of mine. The arrow is pointing upward on Termarr.

Brock Wilken (MIL):

Wilken only received 20 plate appearances this Spring but he did damage on his final plate appearance which came on March 22nd. He hit a bomb to straight away center with a follow-through that was reminiscent of Pete Alonso. Now I’m not comping him to Alonso but there are similarities. He’s a mini version in my opinion. Somewhere sandwiched between a Rhys Hoskins prototype and an Alonso dream case.

He’s slashed: .467/.600/.800 in his tiny sample this Spring and walked 4 times while striking out 6. I’ll be looking out for his K numbers this season when he’s at AA or AAA, but I’ll also be looking for his walk rate. If he can walk at a double-digit rate, let’s say 14% or higher, we’re looking at a potential beast that’s going to post above-average OBPs with high slugging numbers to give you an excellent OPS option who hits a ton of XBH with prodigious potential power output. He’s one of my top-ranked 3B prospects already — in fact, I ranked him 3rd among 3B prospects who haven’t debuted behind Coby Mayo and Colt Keith. Now for another 3B in the Milwaukee system:

Tyler Black (MIL):

Black struggled this Spring putting up a 70 wRC+ while slashing: .242/.342/.242. He’s going to get on base which points to a solid OBP floor but he’s going to need more seasoning in the minors. He’s not quite ready, although he does have a solid double-digit homer and high steals outcome to his profile. Black is beyond monitoring at the minor league level because of what he’s already proven he could do at AA and AAA last year, and that was including the tacky ball situation. Some adjustments may need to be made but I’m not out on Black just yet. I ranked him 4th in my top 3B prospects who haven’t debuted and here is what I wrote:

Brewers fans should be excited to see two of the top four on this list. Black was selected 33rd overall in the 2021 draft out of Wright State — the alma mater of former NBA great Vitaly Potapenko, The Ukraine Train. Potapenko was picked 12th overall in the ‘96 NBA draft, one pick ahead of Kobe Bryant. Maybe it’s the Wright State curse if Black flames out and Cooper Kinney — the 34th pick in 2021 — becomes a Hall of Famer. Alright. Let’s finally get to why Tyler Black is ranked 4th.

The good: Black hit 18 HR and stole 55 bags in 131 games last year between AA and AAA. Counting stats? Check.

He had a 15.6% BB rate and a 17.6% K rate between both levels. Approach at the plate? Check.

His approach even improved at AAA for 39 games where he walked more than he struck out (15.6% vs 13.3%). Improvement while ascending levels in the upper minors? Check.

Finishing top 10 in the final HitTilt+ rankings for 2023? Check.:

Black maintained a 140+ wRC+ at both levels, respectively, and finished the season with a .218 ISO and a .416 wOBA. Black is going to post high OBPs which bodes well because of his penchant for being aggressive on the basepaths and stealing bases. He was only caught stealing 12 times which gave him an 82% SB success rate.

The bad: Not much to say after what I saw last year. If I have to nitpick I’d say the batted ball metrics point to someone with a decently high floor but not much of a ceiling, outside of the stolen base department. He does have sneaky pop which may allow him to hit 15-20 HR at his peak but somewhere in the mid-teens is much more likely given his approach and batted ball data.

We’re looking at a high-floor potential lead-off option for the Brewers who will post high OBPs and run like hell. Any added power to his projections will be a bonus.

I’m not changing my tune on Black or changing any projections based on a small sample in the Spring. He should be a solid part of the Brewers future going forward.

Jackson Chourio (MIL):

I’ve noticed Chourio is a quiet compiler, especially when he’s not on one of his hot stretches. He still produces and is capable of putting up a decent slash line without going berzerk, which is something else he’s capable of for weeks at a time.

All of the hype has gone to Wyatt Langford and rightfully so as he’s hit 6 homers this Spring.

Chourio, however, has been given every opportunity this Spring which led to 63 plate appearances (8-10% of a full season’s load) and he slashed: .328/.381/.414. He’s hit 3 doubles and a triple which was feet away from a homer to straight center. He’s walked and struck out at marginally the same clips that he had at AA last year. Nothing has changed about his profile. There is superstar written all over the kid. He’s put up a .795 OPS without hitting a homer this Spring. That speaks to his bat-to-ball skills and his ability to hit for average and get on base. There is legitimate 20-30 upside this year with Chourio and I’m not letting the fact that he hit no homers this Spring change my projection on that. If you’ve seen his career in the minors, you know he’s a guy who can go on hot streaks for weeks at a time where he hits 4 homers and slugs the hell out of the ball. I’m expecting some growing pains but I expect them to be short-lived. It was recently announced that he made the opening day roster and he’s going to get every possible at-bat now that he’s on the team and inked to 8 years for $80+M.

Andy Pages (LAD):

Pages feels slept on. I’ll admit I’ve been snoozing on Pages as he seems like a prospect who’s been around forever. But all the kid does is slug. He had an excellent start to Spring Training but was then optioned in early March. I would’ve liked to see some more Andy Pages at-bats and I don’t think that’s out of the question come May or June — at the big league level.

Pages played in 7 games, accruing 21 plate appearances in which he hit 1 double, 1 triple, and 2 homers while walking 2 times. He slugged 1.000 in the small sample and he passed the eye test. The swing looked great, the follow-through looked great, and the overall athleticism looked great. Pages is someone to keep an eye on and track when he’ll get the call-up to the big leagues. He’s a worthy stash and when he is getting regular at-bats it will be in a lineup that is stacked, allowing him to accrue some counting stats, too.

Ismael Munguia (SFG):

Ismael Munguia is an interesting case. He missed all of 2020 and all of 2022 while hitting 6 homers and stealing 16 bases in 2023 at AA. Munguia is looking like someone who is going to carve out a path in the big leagues and him not being optioned yet this late into the Spring just shows how the Giants view him internally.

He’s slashed: .378/.452/.622 with a 186 wRC+ in just 42 plate appearances this Spring while hitting 2 homers and stealing 5 bases. He’s a pesky player and he has that pedigree some pesky players just tend to have. There’s a little Shane Victorino in him as I think he can carve out a path and be an effective player despite being overlooked his entire pro career. He’s got an incredible baseball IQ from what I’ve seen and he adjusts on the fly while making it a nightmare for a pitcher to get him out as he has a tendency to stay in at-bats and foul pitches off. I’m actually kind of high on Munguia as a big leaguer. I’m not sure what he’s going to produce as a fantasy player, but he can hit, and get on base while barely striking out and he’s an aggressive baserunner who racks up stolen bases. And I know a gamer when I see one. Munguia is a gamer. I’m buying because the cost is nothing but a roster spot, so it depends on how deep your league is. I’m a Munguia fan, let’s put it that way.

Jordan Beck (COL):