Catcher & 1st Base Targets - April 11th
We'll go over some early Catcher and 1st Base targets and non-targets
This week and into next week, I’ll post targets at each position using Data that I used for my DSL Targets series. I like to use Total Bases/Plate Appearance as a gauge of how a player is hitting. Not every extra base hit is going to be a homer and we can’t account fully for how a player’s future impact is based on how many previous homers he has hit. That’s why I like to take the entire picture into account. Also, some of you may be playing in Total Bases leagues (which I recommend, by the way — it’s an interesting dynamic). Let’s get started with Catchers and 1st Base:
Catchers:
There are some definite outliers here. There’s a grouping near the top that has 4 players who are averaging at least .5000 Total Bases/Plate Appearance which is an excellent number. All four have a wRC+ over 120 and an OPS over .830. I’ve found that’s usually the case. Let’s take a look at who these Catchers are:
In the offseason, I ranked Francisco Alvarez and Yainer Diaz in my top 3 dynasty catchers. They look good on this plot but some others come at a cheaper cost. Will Smith and William Contreras are usual candidates. So we’re going to take a look at Logan O’Hoppe and Ivan Herrera.
Logan O’Hoppe: .4615 Total Bases/Plate Appearance (still a great mark) with a .965 OPS and a position-leading 181.7 wRC+. Early on, his xWOBA is nearly the same as his actual wOBA and he is ripping the cover off the ball slashing .353/.436/.529 with a double, triple, and a homer. He’s increased his walk rate by 3 points while lowering his K rate by 4 points early on. His 90th percentile EV is 103 mph and his Max EV is 111.2 mph with a 19.7 degree Launch Angle. If he can be had for cheap, I would consider taking the leap.
Ivan Herrera: I’ve been pretty high on Herrera and think he’s the catcher of the future over in St. Louis. He has a 104.5 mph 90th percentile EV and a 112.4 mph Max EV so far this season. He has position leading .5294 Total Bases/Plate Appearance while his OPS is .875. He has 3 homers already in 9 games and while he hasn’t walked much in the early going, he’s a good hitter and as long as he’s hitting for average and slugging, he won’t be a big damage to your OPS. I think there’s more patience in his profile and he can raise his walk rate to nearly 8-10% which would help. The power is undeniable, though and he can easily climb dynasty rankings when given a full workload.
1st Base:
There are a few outliers here and one name is a given while the other two just might be breakouts who can be had at a cheaper cost. We’ll go over six in total. Let’s take a look at the names.