2023 DSL/CPX Standouts and Targets Part 1

3 Part series identifying 33 Standouts from the DSL/CPX last year

That lonely dot all the way to the upper right in this scatter plot is none other than Rayner Arias. He was the most impactful hitter in the DSL or CPX on a per-plate appearance basis and it shows. A lot of these names will be the next crop of top prospects and some will fizzle out. Let’s take a look at who they are, go over their skill sets, and project their futures.

I fully expect a few of these names to crack top 100 lists in the coming year. We’ll go over 11 in the first part of this series. Let’s get started:

Rayner Arias (SFG):

As mentioned above, Rayner Arias was the most impactful hitter in the DSL or CPX last season on a per-plate appearance basis. He had an absurd .6053 Total Bases/Plate Appearance to go along with a 229.8 wRC+. Ridiculous numbers for a ridiculously talented player. He’s listed at 6’2 185 and is still just 17 years old. There is a shit-load of projection to dream on here. And Arias almost seems like an afterthought because of the wrist injury he suffered which cut his season short.

He posted elite EV and Max EV marks for someone his age and we can only project for him to lift those averages as he fills out his frame and matures. Arias is expected to begin the season at the Complex level and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get Low-A at-bats to end the season. The helium feels like it’s been popped because of the injury, but Arias remains one of the most talented 5-tool talents from the DSL last year. I’m expecting a climb back into relevancy and we may even see him land himself on a few top 100 lists by season’s end. The talent is there and there’s projection in spades.

Yoeilin Cespedes (BOS):

If I’m betting on a player outside the top 100 right now to be included in the top 100, possibly the top 50 next year, it’s Yoeilin Cespedes. He has great bat speed and great bat to ball skills. He doesn’t strike out much as evidenced by his 11.48% K rate and he is an XBH machine as he had .5120 TB/PA. The kid can hit and he can slug, despite being overlooked in the power department. I think there’s power projection in his bat and we’re likely to see it sooner rather than later.

I expect his low K rate and high average to carry over stateside as Cespedes will be one of the bigger risers from the DSL last year into this year. I googled if there was any relation to the great Yoenis, but I couldn’t find anything of note. I guess we’ll find out if he comes riding into camp on horseback. As a side note and for dynasty purposes: Buy now. Get in early.

Braylin Morel (TEX):

Morel is another projectable outfield bat. Listed at 6’2 180, he recently turned 18 years old so there’s expectation that he will fill out more and add more power output. He already hit 7 homers in 47 games at the DSL last year and we can account for more going forward. He also put up an absurd .5685 Total Bases/Plate Appearance to go with a 168.1 wRC+.

There’s swing and miss to his game, but he has excellent bat speed that should generate a ton of loud contact and line-drive power at this stage in his development. Like Arias, Morel is expected to begin the season at the Complex level and again it wouldn’t surprise me to see Morel get a few Low-A at-bats to end the season. He needs to refine his approach and swing mechanics which will lessen the K rate concerns. That will be something to watch for in 2024. Texas looks to have found another diamond in the rough in the international market. And there’s more.

Ramon Ramirez (KCR):

I ranked Ramirez in my top 25 Dynasty Catcher prospects and ranked him fairly high after the season he had. It’s not just the numbers with Ramirez, as he put up .5000 TB/PA to go with a 167.7 wRC+.

He’s also a projectable catcher who has a keen feel for being behind the plate and is likely to stick at the position. That boosts his stock for me. Ramirez is a name to watch heading into 2024 as he may even debut stateside.

Eduardo Quintero (LAD):

If there’s any organization I trust to develop young talent it’s the Dodgers. Quintero is one of many who fit this mold. He’s a hitting savant and his hit tool will carry him up the minor league ladder and he’s projectable enough to add on some power.

He does hit the ball on the ground a bit too often but that’ll get checked out real quick within the Dodgers development team. Once he lifts the ball more, there will be more power to unlock. Quintero put up .4953 TB/PA to go with a 180.2 wRC+ in 212 plate appearances last year.

He was consistently good and his hit tool and plate approach shined as he hit .359 while maintaining a walk rate of 15.1%. Take walk rates with a grain of salt in the DSL as you can just leave your bat on your shoulder and walk at a double digit clip. It’s still a good sign that he walked that much and struck out only 16% of the time giving him almost a 1:1 ratio. Again, take it with a grain of salt but the lack of strikeouts are a good sign. He’s not the most heralded Dodger from the DSL last year but the upside is there to be a legitimate climber and I’ll go out on a limb and say Quintero repeats his success this year leading to a debate between Joendry Vargas and Quintero.

Javier Mogollon (CHW):

This is one of my favorite DSL prospects to keep an eye on. He’s undersized as all hell and that’s not something I look for when projecting DSL or CPX prospects. But the results speak for themselves as Mogollon hit 10 doubles, 10 homers, and had 11 stolen bases to boot in just 47 games as a 17 year old.

Mogollon is going to be one of those undersized hit tool guys who hits for high-averages and can run a bit. The fact that he raked 10 homers last year has me scratching my head and pondering if he can actually be one of those undersized dudes who will run into double-digit homers on the regular. It’s not farfetched but the track record isn’t good. For every Altuve, there is a flameout who excelled in the DSL. Mogollon won’t flame out as his bat will carry him through the minors and he’ll climb the White Sox top 30 rankings in no time. The question that remains is he a savant that can hit for power despite his size? 2024 will be telling. Just know that Mogollon isn’t going anywhere because his bat will have him climbing levels.

Kelvin Hldalgo (COL):

One of the weirdest last name spellings and I’m still not sure how to pronounce it. Is it the same as Richard Hidalgo? Then what is that l doing after the H? Whatever the case may be, Hldalgo hit 12 homers and stole 14 bases in 239 plate appearances at the DSL last year and that is a not a fluke.

I can see him debuting stateside this year and if he maintains this level of production, the Hldalgo train will start to take off. Get your tickets early and just keep him on your radar for now. Then when there’s a glimpse of him flashing this same potential at Low-A, go cash in your tickets and say you were first.

Derek Bernard (COL):

Bernard repeated the level at DSL in 2023 after a decent showing in 2022. He was even better last year posting a 157 wRC+ to go with 7 homers and 16 steals in 38 games.

He profiles as a second baseman as of now and numbers like that coming from the 2B slot are a dream. The runway is still long and I’d hold off for now, but I’d be keeping an eye on him as he most likely debuts stateside this year. There could be major helium if he gets off to another start like he did last year at Low-A.

Robert Calaz (COL):

The third straight Rockies standout is Robert Calaz. These lists are in no order of rank because Calaz has the most potential out of any of the previously mentioned Rockies names. Maybe the most potential of any of the DSL standouts from last year.

Calaz was signed to a $1.7M signing bonus and was the prize of the Rockies 2023 international class. I don’t say this lightly, but there is superstar potential with Calaz. He’s already big and thick and has a ton of power to boot. There’s still some speed to go with it. He has future slugger written all over him and we just need to see his hit tool develop at the same pace. Let it be known that Calaz had a 90th percentile EV of 107.2 as a 17 year old. Bonkers.

Calaz manning an outfield spot at Coors is something to dream on. He can be a legitimate power threat on any team but this landing spot seems especially ripe. I’d be looking to get in as soon as possible before the helium takes off.

John Cruz (NYY):

Here is our first CPX standout from last year. Cruz is as athletic as they come and is being severely underrated depending on the prospect circle. He generates loud contact with his quick and compact lefty swing which produced ample power this year to the tune of 10 homers in 48 games. He also stole 9 bases.

Listed at 6’3 171, he is a prototypical projectability-through-the-roof type of prospect. He has much to fill out to add to his plus power and sweet stroke. All the ingredients are here to make this recipe a success. He has the power and he has the speed and athleticism. He has the size and he’s likely to debut stateside as an 18 year old.

The John Cruz train will be ready to take off this season and he’ll easily be on many top 100 lists by the end of the year.

Joendry Vargas (LAD):

We’re going to cap off Part 1 of this series with Joendry Vargas. That does not mean he’s ranked the lowest of this crop we just went over. In fact, he might be the best prospect to project out of this grouping.

He’s like Neo from the Matrix. He might be the one. There’s size, projectability, age-to-level production, and a power and speed combination to dream on.

Listed at 6’4 175, Vargas has room to grow to add to his already solid power. As a 17 year old last year, he slashed: .328/.423/.529 with 7 homers and 19 steals in 48 games. He struck out just as much as he walked and had a 149 wRC+.

I’m curious what the Dodgers do with him this year and wonder if they debut him stateside or have him start at the Complex. Either way, he’s going to shoot up rankings this time next year.

I even ranked him 9th in my Projecting the Future series: Top 61 hitting prospects for 2025. If that’s any indication of how high I am on him, I don’t know what is. I’m betting on Vargas to blow up in 2024 and the price won’t come cheap. The cat is already out of the bag on this one.

Stay tuned for part 2. Let me know if there are any standouts that you want reports on in particular in the comments.