Top 75 Dynasty OF Prospects - 2024
Navigating the Outfield -- looking for the next diamonds in the rough
Nobody who has debuted in the big leagues will appear on this list. So no Colton Cowser or Jasson Dominguez, for example. Also, no Jung Ho-Lee.
This will purely be a ranking of OF prospects who I think will be effective players and contribute to your fantasy teams.
There will be some speculative names in the lower minors ranked based on upside who may switch positions or have already switched positions. If they’ve played an outfield position in the minor leagues, I’m going to assume they’ll at least have the opportunity to do so in the major leagues.
I will also include players who I think will inevitably make the switch from a corner infield spot to the outfield in the future. If a player you’re certain should be on this list but isn’t, there’s a good chance they’re either in my top 25 1B prospect rankings or my top 25 3B prospect rankings.
I value OBP and OPS more than I do AVG as the trend is for fantasy leagues to tread towards OBP or OPS scoring if they haven’t already.
Proximity may factor in but doesn’t play a huge role here as these rankings will be predicated on each player’s perceived value/upside/and floor.
Let’s get started on the top 75:
1) JACKSON CHOURIO (MIL):
Chourio is on the path to becoming a superstar in the big leagues — his 2022 season in which he ascended three levels as an 18-year-old put him on the map after a successful DSL debut in 2021. Blessed with incredible bat speed, Chourio has natural line-drive power and loft to his swing which will allow him to hit for power in the big leagues — and he has more to grow as he’s still just 19 as of this writing. There’s already current power and yet we can project for more once he’s filled out. He’s aggressive on the basepaths and provides dual-threat potential. We’re looking at a solid 20-20 base case floor for Chourio. The ceiling is even higher. There are potential MVP seasons on the horizon, but let’s not get carried away just yet. Let’s look at his 2023 season.
Chourio started 2023 at AA — in the Southern League — where they used the pre-tacked balls.
In the 71 games with the pre-tacked ball, he slashed: .249/.304/.410 to go with an 88 wRC+ and a .160 ISO.
In the 57 games after the removal of the pre-tacked ball, he slashed: .324/.379/.538 to go with a 141 wRC+ and a .214 ISO. Literally a tale of two halves for Chourio last year — and remember, he was just barely 19 years old at the time.
He totaled 22 homers and 43 steals in 122 games at AA last year before a six-game stint at AAA to close out the year.
Chourio’s Zone-Contact% ran at nearly 83% to go with just a 32.2% O-Swing%, making contact on 63.2% of pitches outside the zone — good signs to see from someone his age that has his level of aggressiveness at the plate.
In 6 games at AAA, Chourio ran nearly the same Zone-Contact% at 84.6% while his O-Swing% was 27.5% — making contact on 71.4% of pitches outside the zone, lowering his K-rate to just 4.2% (miniscule sample, I know).
Chourio’s maintained about the same BB rate his entire time in the minors (7-8%) while lowering his K rate last year significantly. He was in the lower 20s in 2022 and all the way down to 17.9% in 2023. He’s shown a more patient approach at the plate while still being able to produce the counting stats — power and speed numbers — we’re looking for. Ronald Acuña Jr. posted similar rates in his stint in the upper minors and look where he is now. That’s not a comp either, as it’s unfair to compare the best offensive player on the planet to a 19-year-old who just happens to have a similar skill set.
There’s more room for improvement with Chourio, which is scary to write. The ceiling is sky high and as written above, we’re looking at a potential MVP level peak-case of at least 30-30 to go with high averages in his prime — maybe as early as next year.
2) WYATT LANGFORD (TEX):
Texas just won the World Series and now they have arguably the best prospect in the game who is ready to help them immediately. Think of Chourio and Langford as more of a 1A/1B ranking on this list. Langford has hit at every level he’s been at, whether it was in college or whether it was in the minors last year where he hit 9 home runs in 41 games above rookie ball — ascending from A+ all the way to AAA while seemingly getting better at each stop.
The upper minors were no challenge for Langford. He showed an incredible approach increasing his BB rate at each stop while walking more than he struck out. He posted a 199 wRC+ and a .317 ISO — absurd numbers no matter how small the sample. He had a Zone-Contact% of 78.5% and an O-Swing% of 28.4% in High-A to go with a Zone-Contact% of 78.6% and an O-Swing% of 21.1% at AA. His O-Contact% was 86.7% which shows he can stay in at-bats and limit his K’s while being able to hit pitches out of the zone.
We’re looking at excellent OBPs to go with 25+ HR power and 20+ stolen bases — and sooner rather than later. I think Langford’s floor is higher than Chourio’s, although Chourio doesn’t get much credit for his floor. Langford’s base-case floor might be evident the moment he steps on a big league field. I don’t think it will take him much time to get acclimated at all — which is part of the appeal.
He’s truly an outlier of a hitter and should’ve been the number-one bat picked in the 2023 draft. A lot of people thought it. A lot of people felt it. A lot of people said it. Why it didn’t happen beats me. Instead, he fell to fourth overall to the reigning World Series champs. Some teams just have all the luck.
3) WALKER JENKINS (MIN):
In any other draft, Walker Jenkins might’ve been the first overall pick. A standout prep bat out of South Brunswick HS (GA), Jenkins earns comparisons to Larry Walker, baseballs Larry Legend — absolutely unfair — given Walker is a HOF’er, but that speaks to just how highly Jenkins was viewed coming out of high school — and still is for that matter. He has elite bat control and elite bat speed which will likely produce 25-30+HR at the big league level. He has an elite feel for the zone — as evidenced by his 90.2% Zone-Contact% at Low-A last year. The potential is sky-high and the swing is already there for him to reach that upside.
Jenkins raked when he got his shot in the minors last year running through CPX and then getting a twelve-game stint at A-ball. At A, Jenkins slashed: .392/.446/.608 to go with a .483 wOBA. You read that correctly — nearly a .500 wOBA. He kept his K rate in check striking out only 10.7% of the time at the level. There’s prodigy written all over this kid — a power-hitting corner outfielder who also has some speed to boot — though it may take him some time to display the power in games, I have no doubt that it’ll arrive. The upside of his contact-ability, hit-tool, plate approach, and power potential is why he’s ranked 3rd on this list — also because I think the probable outcome of achieving it is higher than some of the others ranked below him, despite being only 18 years old.
4) JAMES WOOD (WAS):
Wood has been in my top 5 OF for two years now and the upside shows why. I actually don’t think he had that bad a year last year, only confirming my belief that he’ll be a power-hitting specimen at the big league level. We’ll get to that later. First, let me mention why he’s 4th on this list:
This type of upside is freakish. We’re looking at plus speed and plus-plus power coming from a kid who’s 6’6 maybe 6’7’’ — and given his frame he’s likely to retain his speed and steal bases in the future.
Now let’s get to his 2023 season. He split time between A+ and AA hitting 26 homers and stealing 18 bags in 132 games. He had a .255 ISO and a 132 wRC+ — as a 20-year-old.
Now let’s get to the concerns. His K rate. He struck out 31.9% of the time — yet he still managed to put up good numbers. Will he drop his K rate enough so that he’ll hit consistently?
Let’s look at his first 40 games at AA. He slashed: .207/.312/.421 and struck out 31.8% of the time.
In his final 47 games at AA, he slashed: .281/.354/.551 but struck out 35.4% of the time.
He hit more and he hit harder while striking out more, that’s both promising and concerning. I think it’s promising that he’s putting up these numbers despite the K rate as we’ve seen younger players adapt and lower the strikeouts as they’ve matured and ascended through the upper minors. I think that’ll be the case with Wood. We’re not necessarily looking at someone who will drop his K rate to 20% but is it possible that he drops it to the 25-28% range? I believe so. And if he were to do that, the probability of reaching his ceiling increases — a 35+HR potential bat to go with 15-20 steals a year is a nice asset to have in fantasy.
5) EMMANUEL RODRIGUEZ (MIN):
That’s two Minnesota Twins in the top 5. E-Rod is an interesting case of someone who is so passive at the plate —as evidenced by his 51.2% Zone-Swing% — that he barely chases (22.8% O-Swing%) but strikes out a ton — 29.5% last year. Because of the passivity and excellent zone recognition, he also draws a lot of walks — 20.2% in 2023. The high walk totals will lead to high OBPs even if he never lowers his K rate. The power potential is 30+HR a year from this sweet-swinging lefty. He can even run and chip in some steals — we’re looking at possible mid-teens steal totals given his penchant for getting on base. That’s a dream outcome and a lot of factors have to be at play, mainly his health and a potential change in approach. He may be who he is by now, but I wouldn’t rule out a more aggressive approach in the future leading to more HR totals.
In his final 58 games at A+, E-Rod slashed: .270/.434/.525 with 9 homers and 12 steals. His wRC+ was 168 and his ISO was .255 while lowering his K rate to 27.7% in the same timeframe. His stock fell at the end of 2022 following his knee injury and the surgery which followed and it continued to be in question in the first half of 2023. He dispelled all those concerns with a strong second-half finish and I think E-Rod is someone who may be on par with some of the names higher on this list.
The power and speed combined with his almost uncanny ability to get on base are why he’s ranked 5th ahead of some more notable names. He’s a definite buy as his stock isn’t perceived to be the 5th best outfield prospect — yet.
6) DYLAN CREWS (WAS):
Months before the 2023 draft, Crews was considered a favorite to go first overall and was considered the best bat in the draft. He was taken 2nd overall to the Washington Nationals who now have two of the top six outfielders on this list. An argument can be made that he’s actually still in the same tier as Langford and the other names above him. It comes down to preference, for me.
For example, Crews ran a 79.0 Zone-Contact% at High-A last year and a 77.9% Zone-Contact% at AA. He lowered his O-Swing% to a good 24.2% at AA, however his contact on pitches outside of the zone remained at just below 45%. See Langford and Jenkins — their plate approach at similar levels is why I prefer them to Crews at this stage.
Crews was a standout at LSU posting excellent EV’s while hitting for average and power. The ceiling with Crews is just as high as the other names above him although I don’t see him reaching 30-35+HR potential. At his peak, Crews can be a high average/high slugging machine who flanks centerfield or a corner outfield position. In fact, he hits so well he can be a leader in those categories without putting up gaudy HR totals. There’s speed to his profile too, as he will be able to produce double-digit steal totals to go with 20-25 HR. It’s not a bad outcome — Crews is one of the top outfield prospects in the game and if you prefer him to some other names there’s no argument from me in terms of preference — because he is in that same tier.
7) LAZARO MONTES (SEA):
Mini-Yordan is an absolute beast. He broke onto the scene in 2022 hitting 10 HR in 55 games in the DSL. Of course, that came with a 33.2% K rate so everyone raised their red flags. Then in 2023 he split time between CPX and A-ball and hit 13 HR in 70 games while lowering his K rate to 25%. Red flags are now shot down. If he keeps up that improvement in K rate, everyone is going to be in on Lazaro as the power potential is absolutely prodigious. He really is like a mini-Yordan, and like Yordan, Lazaro is being overlooked as a prospect. There’s a tremendous amount of growth I’ve seen from 2022 to 2023 that makes me comfortable ranking him as the 7th overall outfield prospect. For example, his O-Swing% sits at just 24.8% so we’re not really seeing him chase pitches outside the zone which is a good sign of his plate recognition. Is there still risk? Of course, as there is with any of these kids. Do I think the risk factor is overblown in comparison to the potential outcome he has? Also, yes. He’s still young enough to adjust on pitches in the zone (Z-contact% of 71.7% — there’s room for improvement) and when he does that he’s going to be at the very top of this list next year.
Just to throw in a bone, Lazaro finished the year ranked 6th in the final HitTilt+ rankings:
I would be looking to acquire him at all costs.