Top 25 Dynasty SS Prospects - 2024
Chasing upside at the SS position
Nobody who has debuted in the big leagues will appear on this list. This will purely be a ranking of SS prospects who I think will be effective players and contribute to your fantasy teams.
There will be some speculative names in the lower minors ranked based on upside who may switch positions or have already switched positions. If they’ve played Shortstop in the minor leagues, I’m going to assume they’ll at least have the opportunity to do so in the major leagues.
I’m partial to chasing upside when it comes to Shortstop more so than other positions. Dansby Swanson is a good player and a fine option but give me the upside that prep-bats and int’l-bats often provide (Bobby Witt Jr./Gunnar Henderson/Tatis Jr., etc) — and I’m willing to take those risks when it comes to SS. That’s easy to say now but I think it holds true.
There will also be some carryover from my Top 25 2B Prospects list which I’m going to try and limit. If you don’t see a player who you’re certain should be on this list then there’s a good chance he’s on the 2B Prospect list.
I value OBP and OPS more than I do AVG as the trend is for fantasy leagues to tread towards OBP or OPS scoring if they haven’t already.
Proximity may factor in but doesn’t play a huge role here as these rankings will be predicated on each player’s perceived value/upside/and floor.
Let’s get started on the top 25:
1) JACKSON HOLLIDAY (BAL):
I can write anything in this blurb and it won’t make any difference. Glossing over Jackson Holliday at 1st overall at the shortstop position is what I would do. I wouldn’t read it. Even if this wasn’t a positional prospect ranking, Jackson Holliday belongs near the top — if not at the very top.
Holliday possesses such a high floor to go with a high ceiling that he comes across as one of those generational prospects not only at shortstop but in all of baseball. The kid played across four levels last year, starting at A ball and then jumping to AAA — as a 19-year-old. The stuff of a wunderkind. Or is that bildungsroman? It’s a wunderkind and the hero of the story who we see blossoming in front of our own eyes is Jackson Holliday — this is his bildungsroman. I just like using that word.
I could post fancy plots and show where Holliday landed alongside hitters his age and/or level but I won’t do that because he was in the upper echelon of just about every metric, except for his counting stats — 12 HR and 26 Stolen Bases through 141 games across the previously mentioned four levels. And he didn’t really struggle for prolonged periods, which points to that high floor.
He walks just about as much as he strikes out. He consistently hits for average and his OBP is usually more than .100 points greater than his BA. He has speed and is willing to run which will lead to modest to above-average stolen base totals. He has 25+ HR potential yearly once he fills out while playing exceptional defense at shortstop — the same goes if he’s forced to move to 2nd or 3rd because they want to keep Gunnar at shortstop. Holliday plays a better short, but that’s Baltimore’s good problem to have.
The ceiling is something we haven’t even had a glimpse of yet. It points to potential MVP-level seasons from Holliday at the big league level. That’s not hyperbole.
2) COLSON MONTGOMERY (CHW):
Big for a shortstop, Montgomery still possesses good hands and a good glove — good enough instincts to stick at the position. That’ll be Chicago’s call. Montgomery missed the first half of 2023 with an injury (which still seems to be nagging him) and returned in June to a handful of CPX games before repeating A+ for a 17-game stint where he slashed .347/.537/.552. He walked more than he struck out. He was promoted to AA in August and finished his 2023 season there.
If you take the 17 games he played at A+ and the 37 games he played at AA, Montgomery is one of two shortstops with at least 250 plate appearances above rookie ball with a BB/K of at least 0.85 and a wRC+ greater than 150. The other? Jackson Holliday. In fact, the numbers across the board look identical:
Holliday (A,A+,AA,AAA) - BB/K: 0.86 / OBP: .442 / ISO: .176 / wOBA: .429 / wRC+: 159
Montgomery(A+, AA): - BB/K: 0.88 / OBP: .445 / ISO: .190 / wOBA: .419 / wRC+: 152
Holliday was 19 and exhibited this for over 140 games while Montgomery was 21 and displayed this for just over 50 games. Despite not having quite the same profile as Holliday, it isn’t inconceivable that Montgomery turns in seasons on par with Holliday given his high floor, sparing the speed and base-running. The ceiling just isn’t anywhere near as high.
Montgomery even finished 16th in the HitTilt+ final rankings for 2023:
The White Sox are without a true shortstop so we might see Montgomery up early in 2024 if he doesn’t break camp to begin with. We’re looking at a solid high floor with enough ceiling (20-25+HR and high OBPs) to put him at 2nd on this list.
3) JETT WILLIAMS (NYM):
I tried to limit crossover from my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings but who’s to tell what the Mets do at shortstop in the next 3-4 years? Francisco Lindor is their shortstop, plays the position well, and is still only 30 years old. Is it possible he regresses and the Mets brass move him to 3rd base down the line? It’s possible, but I don’t see it just yet. So we’ll keep Jett Williams in at shortstop for now although he’s likeliest to either play a bit of centerfield or 2nd base. I ranked Williams 3rd in my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings and here is what I wrote:
“Imagine Dustin Pedroia with borderline elite speed to go with high OBP numbers. That’s Jett Williams. The swing and pedigree are reminiscent of Pedroia — and the speed as mentioned before is borderline elite. We’re talking 35-40+ SB potential yearly to go with a BB% in the upper teens to 20%. Getting on base is no problem for Jett as his approach is excellent while his contact ability is better than average with potential for more.
Like Amador, this points to a high-floor potential for Jett Williams. We’ll have a better understanding of his upside once he navigates a full season at AA — as he popped 7 HR in just 36 games at A+. That’s a 27 HR pace through 140 games. Now is that something he’s capable of given his lack of size? I'm not convinced. But something in the middle ground of 18-22 HR is possible given his profile. We’ve seen players his size lift the ball with consistency and Jett may be able to do the same — while adding a ton of steals and high BB rates — exactly what you’re looking for in a player at a fairly thin position.
Williams finished 11th overall in HitTilt+ rankings for 2023 which is a testament to the power and speed he showed between A and A+ last year:
He also posted low SwStr% numbers as shown on this plot:
He’s in the same company as Amador except he displayed more power and more speed. So why is he ranked 3rd and not 2nd? The floor for Amador mentioned above is safer in my opinion, although Jett has a solid floor as well. The upside here is also high-teens HRs with a lot of stolen bases. Don’t shy away from acquiring Jett Williams just because of his size or lack thereof. He will be a good Major League asset and someone who you can plug into your 2B spots on your fantasy rosters without hesitation — at least that’s what the profile suggests.”
4) CARSON WILLIAMS (TBR):
Carson Williams makes it four straight shortstops drafted out of high school. As I wrote in the bulleted notes above, I’m chasing upside with this position and upside is what Carson Williams provides. There are lingering concerns over his hit tool as he doesn’t make enough contact for me to feel comfortable with, as evidenced by his 31.8% K-rate at A+ in 2023. When he does make contact he does damage.
In 105 games at A+, Williams hit 23 homers and stole 17 bags — good enough for a 131 wRC+ and a .252 ISO. He slashed: .254/.351/.506. If there is going to be any gripe over Williams it’s the worry that he won’t be able to adapt to big-league hitting — raising his K-rate rather than adapting and lowering it. Williams was just 20 all of last year and will likely start 2024 at AA. If he shows any strides in his approach and learns to better recognize and hit breaking pitches, watch out.
The offensive ceiling is 30+ homer potential and double-digit steals, likely 20-25. Defensively, he’ll stick at shortstop as he’s a plus glove. There are still slight adjustments that need to be made for Williams to capitalize on his ceiling. He is still young and the upside is screaming buy-low or fair value, even if he never hits .270 or above.
5) LUISANGEL ACUÑA (NYM):
See Jett Williams. Acuña is likely a candidate to play 2nd base or centerfield at some point in his debut — which should be 2024. I ranked Acuña 6th in my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings and here is what I wrote:
“Two Mets in the top 6? Blasphemy. Surely, they can’t play the same position at the same time — can they? One of Jett or Acuña is going to have to get more reps in the outfield, but as of this writing, they’re both 2B.
Acuña feels to me like someone who is criminally underrated given that his last name is fucking ACUÑA. And yes, he’s related to that other one. And no, he hasn’t been a bum in the minor leagues, either. He’s produced. There’s this sort of gripe against baby Acuña in that he can’t hit for power. Last I checked, he has quick hands and gets the barrel to the ball — easily adjustable are his launch angles as he’ll have to hit the ball on the ground at a lesser frequency. The speed and base running are without question.
Baby Acuña stole 44 bases in 2021 (12 HR and 15 2B in 111 games). He stole 40 bases in 2022 (11 HR and 16 2B in 91 games). And he stole 57 bases in 2023 as a 21-year-old in AA (9 HR and 28 2B in 121 games). I can see him running into a 2016 Jonathan Villar-esque season. And before you say a Jonathan Villar comp isn’t sexy, just remember in 2016, he hit 19 home runs and stole 62 bases while slashing .285/.369/.457.
If Acuña is at the top of the lineup, he will accrue counting stats due to his ability to get on base and steal bags. The profile is pretty sexy despite everyone seemingly being so dull on him — and he’s close. He figures to make his big league debut sometime in 2024.”
6) MARCELO MAYER (BOS):
Blessed with a pretty left-handed swing, Mayer —it’s safe to say — has been un-blessed with the ability to stay healthy and on the field for prolonged periods. Mayer, through no fault of his own, is criminally underrated and is often seen as an afterthought because of the injuries. I’m here to say Mayer is going to be healthy for the 2024 season and will put up a 140+ wRC+ and a .200+ ISO. If the health-gods can do one thing it’s to make this happen. And if it does happen? — He’s too low on this list.
Mayer has plus power potential from the left side and has the ability to hit 20-25+ HR yearly at the big league level while sticking at shortstop. That’s about his ceiling. His K-rates have maintained consistency at every level he’s played in — hovering right around the 24-25% mark. His BB rates have been in the double digits, mostly in the lower-teens with the exception being his short stint at AA last year. He’ll repeat AA to start the 2024 season and if he can stay on the field, we may see the best version of Mayer that we’ve seen since he was drafted 4th overall in the 2021 draft.
I would look into buying Mayer from a frustrated owner as his perceived value is fairly low given his incredible upside. All he needs is a healthy full-season under his belt.
7) COLT EMERSON (SEA):
I ranked Emerson 7th in my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings and that’s exactly where he falls in the SS ranks. Here is what I wrote:
“Emerson stands in the box like a young Michael Conforto. He even has the elite bat-to-ball skills that Conforto showed while in the minors — lightning-quick hands, the ability to go with the pitch and drive it to all fields, and adaptability. That’s what comes to mind when I see Emerson — adaptability. He recognizes pitches and he drives them where they’re pitched.
This ranking might be too low going into next year and I’ll tell you why. Emerson has the potential to be one of the better players from the 2023 draft and was an absolute steal going at 22nd overall. Prep bats may take a while to get to the show but Emerson has the profile to navigate through the minors fairly quickly. He has the ability to hit for average and power and he has speed. In a short sample of 24 games, he slashed: .374/.496/.549 between CPX and A. He had just turned 18 years old at the time. This is a prospect with major helium and can explode his stock by this time next year. I would be drafting him if I can after some of the bigger names are taken off the board.”
8) ARJUN NIMMALA (TOR):
There isn’t a huge gap between Emerson’s high-floor potential outcome and Nimmala’s high-ceiling potential outcome. I could have ranked them in either order but preferred to go with Emerson because there is actually a higher ceiling emerging with him than initially thought — growing bigger and into more power potential.
Nimmala already has the raw power and still has room to grow. He’s a wiry, twitchy athlete at short with good enough actions to stick at the position. The contact is loud and violent. The lingering question surrounding Nimmala has been the swing-and-miss in his game dating back to his high school days. I think those concerns are valid yet overblown. He showed that he chased fewer pitches in his 9 game stint at CPX last year. He also showed more patience walking 14 times to striking out just 8 times.
There’s a lot of Francisco Lindor to his game which is an outcome to dream on. It isn’t a pipe dream either — it’s possible if Nimmala can improve upon his hit tool and tap into his raw power. It’s 25-30+HR upside at the shortstop position with the potential for high OBP’s if what we saw last year was a glimpse into an improved approach at the plate. The Blue Jays don’t have to rush him as he just turned 18 and it will be interesting to see where they assign him to start in 2024.
I had Nimmala as a top 10 draft prospect heading into the 2023 draft based on upside alone. He fell to 20th and landed in the Blue Jays system which to me is a steal and a good landing spot. I would be looking to acquire Nimmala everywhere as there isn’t much hype surrounding him nor is there much noise degrading his stock. He’s almost floating in a sea of the unknown at this point — what we do know is the ceiling is a shortstop with 30+ HR potential.
Patience with this one, Blue Jays fans.
9) JACKSON MERRILL (SDP):
Merrill’s hit tool and defensive versatility will make him a big-league regular for many years. The outcome is the question. He’ll hit enough to be a part of an everyday line-up. It will come with low OBP’s given he doesn’t walk much. He doesn’t strike out much either — with his 12.6% K rate over 100 games last year between A+ and AA.
There is power potential of at least 20+ HR in Merrill’s bat if he learns to use his lower half with more frequency and if he increases his pull-side power. The outcome I’m leaning towards, however, is someone who hits for average, doesn’t walk much (lowering his OBPs), and hits 13-18 HR a year given a full season of at-bats. I view Merrill as a much better real-life player than one for fantasy purposes.
10) JOENDRY VARGAS (LAD):
It’s the 10th player ranked and we still haven’t got to a college bat. 10th on this list is Joendry Vargas, a part of the Dodgers’ 2023 international signing class. Scouts raved about Vargas before the signing and they continue to do so. Beyond the scouting, the stat line that Vargas put up in the DSL was something to dream on before he actually did it.
He slashed: .328/.423/.529 with 7 homers and 19 steals in just 48 games. He posted a 149 wRC+ and a .201 ISO to go with a .451 wOBA. Impressive stuff from a 17-year-old. He even walked at the same rate he struck out — at about a 14-15% clip. We’re looking at potential plus power given his frame and projectability and an approach that lends itself to high OBPs. The upside is tantalizing — he’s posted elite max exit velocities for someone his age and we can continue to see that trend rise.
Vargas has the potential to be a top-10 prospect this time next year. It all depends on what the Dodgers’ plans are for him — whether he starts at CPX or A. The cat is out of the bag on Vargas so the price is already reflective but there’s still more upside to value in if all goes right.