Top 25 Dynasty 3B Prospects - 2024
Finding the next staples for your lineups at the hot corner
Nobody who has debuted in the big leagues will appear on this list. This will purely be a ranking of 3B prospects who I think will be effective players and contribute to your fantasy teams. — So no Junior Caminero (9-game stint for Tampa in ‘23), though he’d be 1st on this list.
There will be some speculative names in the lower minors ranked based on upside who may switch positions or have already switched positions. If they’ve played Third Base in the minor leagues, I’m going to assume they’ll at least have the opportunity to do so in the major leagues.
I will also include players who I think will inevitably make the switch from SS to 3B in the future. If a player you’re certain should be on this list but isn’t, there’s a good chance they’re either in my top 25 2B prospect rankings or in my top 25 SS prospect rankings. If not, check my top 25 1B prospect rankings.
I value OBP and OPS more than I do AVG as the trend is for fantasy leagues to tread towards OBP or OPS scoring if they haven’t already.
Proximity may factor in but doesn’t play a huge role here as these rankings will be predicated on each player’s perceived value/upside/and floor.
Let’s get started on the top 25:
1) COBY MAYO (BAL):
Mayo is a masher and wherever he ends up, whether it’s 1st base or 3rd base — he’s going to hit. As of this writing, I don’t even know if he’ll be a Baltimore Oriole long-term. Whatever team he lands on is getting a potential offensive beast. I ranked Mayo 2nd in my Top 25 1B Prospect Rankings. Here is what I wrote:
“Mayo played 19 games at 1B in AAA. I’m comfortable labeling him as a Corner Infielder as of now as they’ll play him anywhere once he’s up with the Orioles (or barring a trade, whomever he plays for) so long as they can get his bat in the lineup.
As a 21-year-old, Mayo played 78 games at AA slashing: .307/.424/.603 hitting 17 Home Runs while posting a .296 ISO and a 178 wRC+. He demolished the level. His results backed up his profile which includes a plus hit tool and plus plus power. Seriously, the power is prodigious with this kid and it doesn’t matter where he’ll play on the diamond as long as he gets AB’s for the Orioles (or for whatever team he winds up on).
He was promoted to AAA and played 62 games slashing: .267/.393/.512 adding another 12 Home Runs while posting a .244 ISO and a .398 wOBA. High OBP numbers can be counted on as he posted BB rates of 14.7% at AA and 15.7% at AAA. I think last year, I was too low on Mayo and after what he showed in 2023, he’s right up atop these rankings to start 2024.
He finished 6th overall in the HitTilt+ rankings for 2023:
He’s going to be costly, but I think he’ll produce right away at the big league level while we’re looking at a peak case of him being a consistent 25-35 HR threat who posts high OBP’s and other good rates. If you own him, hold and reap the rewards when he’s putting up big numbers in the show.”
2) COLT KEITH (DET):
I know Keith is going to play 2B this year for the Tigers and Detroit has explicitly laid out plans for Jace Jung to eventually be their 3rd baseman, but who knows what the future holds. As of right now, Keith is a 2B/3B. I ranked Keith 1st overall in my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings and have him and Mayo almost identically placed in my rankings. It’s more like a 1A/1B situation. Here is what I wrote about Keith:
“Keith is an extra-base machine. He hit 38 doubles and 27 homers in just 126 games last year between AA and AAA. He was only 21 at the time. Fast forward to today and he has a job at second base lined up on opening day.
I remember people freaking out about Sal Frelick’s lightning-quick hands and when I watch Keith, I see the same quickness, except now it’s paired with plus power potential. Keith maintained a BB% north of 10% for about 3 years now in the minors. And he’s kept his K% right around 20% during that same period. The consistency, approach, and power potential excite me — sorry for getting carried away there.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Keith has the job at 2nd base on opening day and gets a full season’s worth of at-bats leading him to accumulate 30+ doubles and 20-25 HR while posting a modest to above average OBP. All the kid does is hit at every level he’s been at — posting a wRC+ of 150 and a .244 ISO in 2022 (as a 20-year-old) — and posting a wRC+ of 140 and a .247 ISO in 2023 (as a 21-year-old in the upper minors). His profile even gets a boost by the fact that he’ll be eligible at 2nd base and knowing the type of power he can contribute at an otherwise scarce position. I can see an OBP over .340 to go with 25+ doubles and 20+ HR in his first season in Detroit. A part of me thinks that might just be his floor.”
3) BROCK WILKEN (MIL):
Wilken is a beast who only got better throughout his 3 years at Wake Forest. Seriously. If you don’t believe me, check this out:
Barrel%:
2021 — 21.5%
2022 — 21.8%
2023 — 33%
Chase%:
2021 — 19%
2022 — 18.4%
2023 — 11.1%
wRC+:
2021 — 135
2022 — 123
2023 — 187
Thanks to Robert Frey (@RobertFrey40) for the college data.
Wilken hit .345 with 31 HR for Wake Forest in 2023. He hit 71 total HR in his 3 years there which is most in ACC history. He’s an absolute beast in the mold of a Rhys Hoskins/Pete Alonso hybrid if all goes right. Does that mean he’ll hit 53 HR in his first year in the big leagues? No, he’ll hit 54. Seriously, though — all I’m saying is Wilken is built similarly in both stature and ability. He may even be a first baseman down the line — which depresses his value a bit, but I’m still not concerned.
Wilken was taken with the 18th overall pick by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2023 draft. I had him pegged as a top-10 draft prospect heading in — on his ceiling and raw power alone. Now do I think his floor is as low as some might think? No, I think he has a sound floor, and the improvements he’s made in his approach point to high OBPs in his future to go along with the prodigious power numbers he’ll produce.
Now let’s jump to A+:
In 150 plate appearances, he posted a:
92nd percentile Chase rate (20%)
97th percentile BB rate (18%)
94th percentile Hard-Hit (47%)
He slashed: .289/.427/.438 and walked 18% of the time while striking out at a 21.3% clip. That K rate would be great if it hovered around in that area in the upper minors. His Z-Contact% was good at 81.5% and his chase rate was 25.1% at the level.
He only had a 6 game cup of tea at AA in which he hit 2 HR but struck out 36% of the time. There’s not much to take from that sample — but that his Z-contact dipped to 68.8%, however, his chase rate improved to an elite 14.8% in just 89 total pitches seen (Again, small sample though).
Starting at AA in 2024, Wilken can display his improved approach by maintaining his BB rate and by improving upon his contact in the zone in the upper minors, because he’s shown that he will not chase at bad pitches —- if he does that, there’s a good possibility he’s the top 3B prospect in the game this time next year.
4) TYLER BLACK (MIL):
Brewers fans should be excited to see two of the top four on this list. Black was selected 33rd overall in the 2021 draft out of Wright State — the alma mater of former NBA great Vitaly Potapenko, The Ukraine Train. Potapenko was picked 12th overall in the ‘96 NBA draft, one pick ahead of Kobe Bryant. Maybe it’s the Wright State curse if Black flames out and Cooper Kinney — the 34th pick in 2021 — becomes a Hall of Famer. Alright. Let’s finally get to why Tyler Black is ranked 4th.
The good: Black hit 18 HR and stole 55 bags in 131 games last year between AA and AAA. Counting stats? Check.
He had a 15.6% BB rate and a 17.6% K rate between both levels. Approach at the plate? Check.
His approach even improved at AAA for 39 games where he walked more than he struck out (15.6% vs 13.3%). Improvement while ascending levels in the upper minors? Check.
Finishing top 10 in the final HitTilt+ rankings for 2023? Check.:
Black maintained a 140+ wRC+ at both levels, respectively, and finished the season with a .218 ISO and a .416 wOBA. Black is going to post high OBPs which bodes well because of his penchant for being aggressive on the basepaths and stealing bases. He was only caught stealing 12 times which gave him an 82% SB success rate.
The bad: Not much to say after what I saw last year. If I have to nitpick I’d say the batted ball metrics point to someone with a decently high floor but not much of a ceiling, outside of the stolen base department. He does have sneaky pop which may allow him to hit 15-20 HR at his peak but somewhere in the mid-teens is much more likely given his approach and batted ball data.
We’re looking at a high-floor potential lead-off option for the Brewers who will post high OBPs and run like hell. Any added power to his projections will be a bonus.
5) BRADY HOUSE (WAS):
Brady House was selected in the same draft as Tyler Black, going 11th overall out of High School. He was drafted for his raw power and his ability to barrel balls. The scouts grade him at a 50 for speed but don’t let that fool you because he won’t be stealing many bases. It’s often times inaccurate and not kept up to date as a player fills out or just flat out refuses to run — and sometimes a 40-grade runner on a scouting report turns out to be a speed demon or someone with sneaky speed and a good idea on how to steal bases. Anyway, House wasn’t drafted for his ability to steal bases. He was drafted because the Nationals thought they were getting the next Kris Bryant-lite.
He stands in the box almost like Trea Turner from the right side before barreling the ball a lot harder and getting great extension when he does barrel balls. House has yet to consistently show his plus power in-game but he’s also yet to play a full-season. There’s 25-30HR potential in his bat and the scouting-grade hit tool of just 40 is looking foolish. He’s hit for average at every level he’s played in. His approach is a concern(not walking enough, striking out too much) but he’s still just 20, and good players figure that out. Starting 2024 at AA and having a full season under his belt will go a long way toward realizing House’s perceived value and with a good showing he can elevate himself into one of the top 3B prospects in the game. The upside is higher than Black’s and the power potential is more appealing, which is why I considered ranking House 4th. I couldn’t.
6) SEBASTIAN WALCOTT (TEX):
Walcott is likely to be a 3rd baseman down the line even if he continues to play shortstop for another year or two. Signed in last year’s international class for over $3M, Walcott already has plus power with the potential to grow into more. He already posts elite exit velocities and seems like a generational talent. We’ve seen talent like this fizzle out before (Robert Puason) but I’d argue Puason wasn’t this tooled up and never made the proper adjustments at the plate as he got older. Like with Puason, the biggest concern is the K-rate, which Walcott ran up to nearly 30% last year. The good, however, is that he’s still just 17 years old as of this writing. Any improvement upon that K-rate and Walcott instantly becomes a top 10 prospect, if not higher.
He hit 6 HR in a 13-game span last year at CPX and that’s when everyone took notice. It was a good sign seeing all those tools be put to use in that short sample and now all that’s left is for him to do it over a full season at A or A+. If he does, Walcott becomes one of the most intriguing prospects in the game given his plus tools across the board. I’d argue that he already is which is why I have him ranked 6th ahead of some more established names.
7) GRAHAM PAULEY (SDP):
Pauley played some second, third, and the two corner outfield positions last year. I’m not sure where his long-term position stands but what I do know is that he’s continued to hit at every level he’s been at. I ranked Pauley 11th in my top 25 2B Prospect Rankings and here is what I wrote:
“I want to put Pauley higher on this list but he seems to have capped out his frame and projectability — which seems to be a 15-20 HR bat with a great hit tool at the big league level. The bat will keep him in the lineup whether it’s at second or third base — or a corner outfield spot — as it has driven the former 13th-rounder up my prospect rankings. Pauley also finished 13th in the final HitTilt+ rankings for 2023:
He played 3 levels in 2023 and here were his slash lines at each level:
A (62 games): .309/.422/.465 — 4 HR — 145 wRC+
A+ (45 games): .300/.358/.629 — 16 HR — 168 wRC+
AA (20 games): .321/.375/.556 — 3 HR — 141 wRC+
Pauley crushed it in 2023 hitting a total of 23 home runs while adding 22 steals. These types of numbers from a 2B in fantasy would be borderline elite. The only question I have now is if he can repeat AA with the same success as he did in his small sample to end the year last year. If there’s more power in the bat that can profile into him hitting 20-25+ HR in the big leagues, Pauley is too low on this list. In fact criminally too low. It’s low enough to put me in a paddy wagon with a blindfold on and swerve straight into the 19th precinct. With that said, I would be buying into Pauley right now and hoping that he can duplicate his 2023 because if he can, his stock and perceived value are going to do nothing but rise.”
The same holds true for him at 3B.
8) SAL STEWART (CIN):
Stewart was drafted 32nd overall in the 2022 draft out of Westminster Christian School (Miami) — the same school A-Rod attended. Now how’s that for a comp? Blow my brains out, will you? There’s nothing similar outside of them sharing the same high school. This started on a negative note, so I’ll start writing about the good.
The good: Sal Stewart is listed at 6’3 220 and has an excellent frame to hit his plus offensive projections. He’s hit at every level and has shown a great approach along with it. Stewart got off to a slow start last year in the power department but he finished his season strong.
In his final 61 games between A and A+, Stewart hit 10 home runs and 15 doubles while adding 8 steals. I know the scouts’ grades for his speed are low, but he finished the season with 15 stolen bases.
There’s some speed and smart base running to his game which isn’t hindered by his hulking size. As I wrote above in the Brady House blurb, scouting grades on speed are fairly unreliable and don’t take a lot of factors into account. Enough about Stewarts’ sneaky speed, let’s talk about how he finished the season.
In those final 61 games, he slashed: .311/.432/.514 with a 160 wRC+ and a .203 ISO. What’s more impressive is that 10 of his 12 home runs came in that span and he walked more than he struck out. His BB% was 16.6% and his K% was 14.4%. We’ve got a player who walks more than he strikes out, is built to hit home runs with plus power projections, and also hits for average. He happens to only be 20 years old as of this writing and will likely start 2024 at A+ — or AA if the Reds are feeling especially spicy. Stewart is underrated by all means and can likely shoot up this list with a good showing this year. It’s almost pathetic how underrated he is and the Reds’ embarrassment of riches continues to….embarrass. I couldn’t find the right word for it. But seriously, there is just a ton of infield talent on the way up in Cincinnati’s farm. Stewart is one of those bright spots.
9) STERLIN THOMPSON (COL):
University of Florida product Sterlin Thompson is a hitter. Can I write something as simple as that? If he was called up to the Rockies right now, he’d probably be one of the better hitters in the lineup. Either that’s saying a lot about Thompson or it’s saying very little about the Rockies. In this case, both can be true — and they are.
Thompson profiles best at a corner outfield position though he’s been playing 3rd base frequently enough that I have to include him here. He doesn’t have a profile that matches that of a big bopper, though we’re looking at someone who can be a great doubles hitter and who can run into mid-teens to 20 home runs yearly. Paired with his ability to hit for average, limit the strikeout, and his penchant for running and stealing bases (20-for-22 in 120 pro games — 91% success rate) he makes for a good-to-great overall player. The speed is undersold with Thompson, as I think he’ll be able to run a lot for the Rockies, given his ability to get on base. As of writing this, I’m wondering if I have Thompson ranked too low because I just love his profile and the fact that he’ll be able to display his gap-to-gap power at Coors Field. He makes for a relatively safe stash and someone who you know what you’ll get with.
10) BRYAN RAMOS (CHW):
Ramos doubled his walk rate from 2022 at AA (repeating levels) from 5.8% to over 11%. In 77 games at AA in 2023, Ramos slashed: .271/.369/.457 — dispelling any concerns about his lagging hit tool. There’s an underlying star potential with Ramos, too. He has plus raw power to go with plus speed (though he didn’t run at all last year — shades of Yoan Moncada promising he’d steal 30 bags a year).
He’s still just 21 and had to navigate the tacky ball situation over at the AA - Southern League last year.
From July 14th onward, (post-tacky-ball, freedom era) Ramos slashed: .297/.375/.503 with 9 Home Runs in 46 games. That was good for a 133 wRC+ and a .206 ISO. He even lowered his K rate by 4 points to 17%. Legit, promising numbers from a 21-year-old navigating a tough situation. He followed that with a good showing in the AFL hitting 4 homers in 23 games.
It feels like Ramos is often overlooked among the other 21-and-younger stars who had to go through the same ordeal in the Southern League. He came out the other side with better results and with a lot to look forward to in 2024. I’d be looking to buy low if I could — there doesn’t seem to be much hype with him from what I can tell. As I wrote earlier, there’s legitimate star potential here — 20-25+HR upside with a hit tool that plays above scouts’ grades.