Top 100 Pitching Prospects - Preseason 2024
Pitchers and Catchers report in less than 3 weeks and Opening day is less than 2 months away. So today at ProspectTilt we're going to go over the top 100 pitching prospects in baseball
There’s a lot that goes into these rankings and a lot that can go wrong when going 100 deep. There will be prospects who don’t make the show, there will be future aces, and there will be some who are in both camps who end up working at or going to Driveline or Tread during the offseason. My goal is to rank pitchers based on whether or not I believe they’ll make the show AND how effective they’ll be. It sounds like an impossible task but that’s what will make this fun and will hopefully fill your rosters with arms before your competition gets to them.
I wont discriminate pitchers who I think will be elite or high-leverage/top-tier Relievers. I will include them as I see fit because they matter just as much if not more than a fringe Starter who probably wont make it to the bigs. Also, after the top 50 or so it’ll feel like I’m ranking Starters just as fillers to complete the top 100 and I want to make sure I’m ranking pitchers based on their future effectiveness.
After each ranking I’ll share whether I think that Starter is an SP1/SP2/SP3 and so on and so on… Or whether I think they’re destined for the bullpen
I posted on Twitter that Yordanny Monegro was my 6th ranked pitching prospect and as much as I love Monegro, I have to edit that rank and put him in his rightful place. It was a bit premature, although I think I’ll still have him ranked higher than most.
Nobody who has debuted in the Majors will be included on this list. So no AJ Smith-Shawver or Kyle Harrison, for example
I will use TiltValue as a tool but it will have no bearing on my actual personal rankings
And finally, no, I don’t hate your favorite team because a pitcher you love isn’t on here. So make sure to comment on who you think I over-ranked, under-ranked, or simply just didn’t rank at all. I.E. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga will not be ranked in this grouping though Yamamoto would be near the top if not at the very top if he were. That’s enough of that. Let’s get started:
Top 100
CADE HORTON (CHC):
Horton started 2023 in A ball where he only needed 4 starts before getting the call to A+. He put up a 13.19 K/9 to go against a 2.51 BB/9 in A ball.
All it took was 11 starts in High-A for Horton to be promoted to AA. Horton used his mid to high 90s fastball and his sharp slider to put up a 12.45 K/9 and 2.30 BB/9 while pitching to a 3.83 ERA and 3.23 FIP.
In AA, Horton was even better. Pitching to a 1.33 ERA and 2.51 FIP while putting up a 10.33K/9 and 3.67 BB/9 in 6 starts to close out the season.
In his final 14 starts of the season between A+ and AA, Horton pitched to a 1.99 ERA, a .180 AVG against, and a 32.7% K %. The next step here is for him to get deeper into games.
Remember, Horton was just 21 all season long as he showed excellent stuff, great spin, and good durability. There's no question about the effectiveness here and the risk profile is fairly low. That’s what puts him at the top of the list. Horton is a future SP1/SP2 with a great safety profile
JACKSON JOBE (DET):
Jobe pitched through 4 levels in 2023, starting with one start in CPX and ending with a lone start at AA. There’s concern over Jobe’s back but it’s not something I’m totally concerned with as he showed his ability to be durable and go deep into games (or at least what was asked of him) in 8 of his final 9 games.
What makes Jobe good? It’s everything, the fastball is mid 90s but the slider is his money maker with its 3000 RPM. He’s learned to throw the changeup effectively. Jobe has it all.
He only threw 64 innings in 2023 so his workload in 2024 will be an issue or else a call up would seem imminent. If you took away his start in CPX, he pitched 62 innings generating a 31.7% K% and an absurdly low 2.4% BB%. There’s not much separation between Horton and Jobe and the durability/back issue is the only thing potentially keeping him from being 1 on this list. Jobe is a future SP1 in the mold of a George Kirby with more upside.
PAUL SKENES (PIT):
Skenes is both a can’t miss generational prospect coming out of college and a prospect who was constantly battered with questions about the shape of his fastball. Both can be true, but I’m not worried about the latter at all. Skenes will be good.
And Skenes should be good right away because of where he’s already at in his development. My biggest worry was how much usage he had while at LSU but that didn’t seem to stop him. The slider is a filthy offering and the fastball is triple digits, no matter the shape. I feel safe ranking Skenes 3rd among pitching prospects. The floor is comfortably high and the ceiling is higher than most. Skenes is a future SP1 with slight concerns over prior usage
RICKY TIEDEMANN (TOR):
Tiedemann or Painter?….Tiedemann or Painter? My brain goes into constant overdrive when I ask this question. Painter is the answer if there wasn’t the question of health. Speaking of health, Tiedemann has had his fair share of injuries but proved towards the end of the season that he was primed to go.
Also, Tiedemann finished 1st in TiltValue for pitchers with at least 30IP/5GS as he barely made the cut with 44IP. After coming back from injury, Tiedemann punched out 56 batters in his final 29.1 IP. That’s over a 17K/9. Numbers too good not to rank him here as he’s still just 21 and not too far from the show. Tiedemann is a future SP1 with injury concerns
DYLAN LESKO (SDP):
Lesko is where things get funky. But is it all that crazy to have a 20 year old with 3 elite offerings this high? I didn’t think so. His command is an issue but I think that gets figured out quick given the type of talent we’re dealing with here.
There’s not many innings here to work with and he certainly won’t be up in the Majors this year so he has plenty of time to build up his workload. The stuff is what puts him at 5, especially that ridiculous curveball. Lesko is a future SP1 if he figures out his command. The floor is SP3 as someone who will be electric one night and walk the world the next, but I see Lesko as someone who figures it out. Get him while you can.
ANDREW PAINTER (PHI):
This is a wait-and-see approach. The talent and the results as a 19 year old through three levels were enough to put him at 1. The injury background is what puts him at 6. He’s still just 20 and one more set back will probably push him down further but I’m giving Painter the benefit of the doubt to come back from TJ. There is no doubt Painter is a future SP 1. The only thing holding him back is whether he gets a chance to show it.
NOBLE MEYER (MIA):
6’5’’ lanky righty who models his game after Jacob deGrom? Sign me up. Fastball sits 97-98 and touches triple digits with a 3000 RPM slider and feel for the changeup. Meyer to me is someone who can eventually be the top pitching prospect in baseball once the guys above him graduate. I’m all in on his development and his ceiling is as high as anyone. Meyer is a future SP1/SP2, dependent on how he shows in 2024. More experience is needed but I think he climbs levels and reaches AA before most of us expect.
HURSTON WALDREP (ATL):
Waldrep dropping to 24th in the draft was an absolute steal. Atlanta looks to have another potential ace on their hands and he isn’t far from the show at all. He’s likely to debut this year and show off his arsenal which includes 3 borderline elite pitches. Command is an issue which puts Waldrep in the middling SP1/ middling SP2 range.
NOAH SCHULTZ (CHW):
Another 20 year old with a lack of workload to analyze. The stuff? Excellent. The command? Also great. The lefty had a 36.5% K% in his 27IP in A ball last year. Expect those numbers to keep up as he climbs levels. Schultz is a future SP1/SP2 with a long runway ahead.
DREW THORPE (SDP):
Thorpe was traded to the Padres adding to their crop of pitching prospects. I had a hard time placing Thorpe but couldn’t ignore the results. The stuff is good but not excellent, though the changeup may be one of the best in the minors. However, the results speak for themselves.
Thorpe pitched 109 innings in A+ with a 2.81 ERA to go with a 11.39K/9 and 2.72BB/9
The slider at times was also looking like a plus pitch as evidenced here:
He was even better in AA to finish the season. 30.1IP with a 1.48 ERA to go with a 13.05K/9 and 1.48BB/9. Command is great, changeup is great, and if he can find a few ticks on his fastball, he’s as safe as they come. He finished 5th overall in TiltValue with a sizable workload. Thorpe is a bonafide SP2/SP3 with potential for more and a safe floor. He’s a Major League pitcher.
JACOB MISIOROWSKI (MIL):