Top 100 Pitching Prospects - May 2024 Update
Non-Debuted Pitching Prospects only
1) Paul Skenes (PIT):
Skenes has separated himself from the pack in the early going of the 2024 season. He’s shown durability, poise, and most importantly pitched to incredible results while having an uptick in stuff. His average fastball velocity is now 99.9 mph and he’s throwing a Split-Sinker variation or a “splinker”, which is averaging 94.7 mph with 1794 RPM.
Skenes might debut by the time I’m done working on these rankings but I’ll keep him at the top of this list regardless — he’s going to be a nightmare to deal with for opposing batters when he’s in the Pittsburgh rotation. Don’t let the fastball shape fool you — the velocity alone is enough to put him atop any starter in pro baseball.
2) Jackson Jobe (DET):
The Book of Job recounts a quote that goes like this. “He performs wonders that cannot be fathomed, miracles that cannot be counted.” Jackson Jobe performed wonders during the Spring Breakout game that made me think he was the number one pitching prospect in baseball at the time — just from a one-inning sample. While he still has that ceiling, I can’t put him ahead of Skenes at the moment as he’s had some hiccups at AA and I think the one-inning sample was an exercise in adrenaline and him amping himself up and throwing max effort.
As a starter, he still possesses some of the best stuff in pro baseball and he’ll likely be in Detroit by late summer if he can heal from the hamstring strain he suffered less than a week ago.
3) Cade Horton (CHC):
Horton was my number-one pitching prospect coming into the season for a multitude of reasons. Here is what I wrote:
Horton started 2023 in A ball where he only needed 4 starts before getting the call to A+. He put up a 13.19 K/9 to go against a 2.51 BB/9 in A ball.
All it took was 11 starts in High-A for Horton to be promoted to AA. Horton used his mid to high 90s fastball and his sharp slider to put up a 12.45 K/9 and 2.30 BB/9 while pitching to a 3.83 ERA and 3.23 FIP.
In AA, Horton was even better. Pitching to a 1.33 ERA and 2.51 FIP while putting up a 10.33K/9 and 3.67 BB/9 in 6 starts to close out the season.
In his final 14 starts of the season between A+ and AA, Horton pitched to a 1.99 ERA, a .180 AVG against, and a 32.7% K %. The next step here is for him to get deeper into games.
Remember, Horton was just 21 all season long as he showed excellent stuff, great spin, and good durability. There's no question about the effectiveness here and the risk profile is fairly low. That’s what puts him at the top of the list. Horton is a future SP1/SP2 with a great safety profile
I had to adjust my rankings to reflect Skenes and Jobe being ahead of him at this stage. That isn’t a knock on Horton who possesses excellent front-line stuff. He works fast and quickly and sits mid-90s while his slider is an excellent whiff pitch. It’s one of my favorite tight sliders in the minors right now. His changeup and curveball have also made improvements giving him a solid four-pitch mix that he will use when he inevitably gets the call to Wrigley which should be sometime this summer. You can see some of his pitch-mix here:
4) Noah Schultz (CWS):
Schultz possesses a slider that can be hellacious to both right-handers and left-handers alike. From what I’ve seen this year, he’s made left-handers like Xavier Isaac and Termarr Johnson look like absolute court jesters, flailing and looking to pick up the pieces, chasing after that slider. He’s a 6’9 lefty who will pound the zone with sinkers and sliders and also shows a refined delivery that is repeatable for someone his size — add that to the deception he creates on both pitches and it’s a recipe for success. Schultz gets marred with Randy Johnson comps because he’s a tall, white, lanky lefty — but don’t get it twisted — they have completely different demeanors on the mound. The slider, like Johnson’s, will be a nasty out-pitch for him, but beyond that, the comps should stop. Johnson is a Hall of Famer and one of the best pitchers of his generation — a generation that included a drug frenzied power barrage and he still dominated and scared the living shit out of his opponents. I’m not sure this kid will intimidate the same way Johnson did — but looking at him — I’m sure batters aren’t comfortable dealing with a 6’9 lefty that gets the type of extension he does which allows his sinker to play up and his slider to basically have hitters wave like a kid in a blindfold swinging at a piñata.
There’s still more to see from Schultz — like going deeper into games and managing his stuff once he’s past the 3rd or 4th inning. That’s the next step in his development. But he’s still only 20 years old and in High A. That’ll come with time. His start to 2024 has been nothing short of encouraging and I can see him being the top pitching prospect in baseball on upside alone once the others above him graduate.
5) Chase Dollander (COL):
I’ll admit it — I have a bias against pitchers being drafted and developed by the Rockies. And this goes beyond their future pitching at Coors Field. I was high on Dollander coming into the season but knocked him down a few spots because of the organization he’s affiliated with. I’ll say this though — I’m separating the Rockies from my conscious thought and am just evaluating Dollander on his own merits. Dollander is a top-10 pitching prospect in baseball on his own merits. Having him here at 5 might be a bit aggressive, but I believe in the stuff and what I’ve seen from his pro-debut this year has made me giddy with the idea that he can actually pitch at Coors and pitch to success. His fastball and slider have been hellacious in generating whiffs this season and he’s pitched to a 2.33 ERA in just under 20 innings pitched thus far. His average against is .136 and his SwStr% sits at an absurd 21.39%. He comes in at 16th on the TiltValue leaderboard as of May 6th.
The fastball easily sits in the mid-90s and will oftentimes be upper 90s while the slider has nice shape to it and is another out-pitch for the kid, to go along with his changeup which can flash plus and his curveball. We’ve seen this with Jon Gray, another top college arm drafted 3rd overall by the Rockies. I’m ready to say Dollander is a better prospect than Gray was. There I go again — if I removed the Rockies from my conscious thought they couldn’t escape my subconscious as I’m conflating Dollander and the dreaded organization once again.
6) Rhett Lowder (CIN):
Here is another college arm from last year’s draft who didn’t debut until this year and is still in High-A. Lowder should be a fast mover as I’ve written before and for my money is the best pitching prospect in Cincinnati. He features a fastball that is often mid-90s, a slider that’s hellbent, and a changeup that falls off the table. He complements all of that with great control and has the potential to be a legitimate control freak — 5.9% Walk Rate through 25.1 innings so far this season. I’ll admit —while Dollander is more of an upside bet — Lowder is more of a safety floor bet for me. I loved the stuff in college and I like what I’m seeing so far this year, although he has been hit hard with frequency during some starts, it hasn’t been too damaging (He’s allowed only 2 homers and both of them came in the same game). I think he gets better as the season progresses and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we see him in Cincinnati at some point in 2024.
7) Andrew Painter (PHI):
The stuff is there to be the top pitching prospect in baseball and I will include him on this list one more time until (crossing my fingers that there’s not) there’s another setback which ultimately pushes him back significantly. Still — as of today, a healthy Painter possesses the stuff and command to be a frontline impact starter. He’s a worthy bet and buy-low if you like Tommy John sales. For 70 cents on the dollar, you too can own someone who can be the next future ace of the Philadelphia staff for years to come. He drops to number 7 here because of the health issues but he would be placed in the Skenes & Jobe tier if he were fully healthy — and he may have even topped the list. That’s how good he is and can be, health prevailing.
8) Tink Hence (STL):
A tale of two cities or a tale of two years. Tink, born Markevian Hence, was named “Stinker” by his mother at a young age which evolved into “Tinker” and then to “Tink.” He’s also evolved from a Stinker last year to a Tinkerer this year. He’s still just 21 and development curves aren’t always linear as he struggled as a 20-year-old at AA last year. He’s back at the same level and he’s pitching to a 2.10 ERA with great underlying numbers in 25.2 innings pitched. The Velo tapered off last year as he got deeper into games but this season he’s been steadily mid-90s with his fastball which he throws from a low release and he’s been able to maintain it through his starts.
He’s gone at least 5 innings deep in four of his five starts and in his last start went 7 innings, striking out 10, while throwing 94 pitches. These are all great developmental achievements and benchmarks for Hence at this age. I wrote about Hence being overlooked in the offseason and how people would be aboard the Hence train by mid-summer. Here is what I wrote:
2022 proved to be the breakout party for Hence who features an electric fastball and good curveball. He was a 19-year-old in A ball who pitched 1.38 ERA / 1.59 FIP / 1.94 xFIP in 52.1 innings pitched. He posted an elite 13.93 K/9 paired with a solid 2.58 BB/9.
Command hasn’t been an issue with Hence but he did struggle to get results in AA as a 20-year-old. He’ll likely repeat the level this year and if he can get back on track this ranking is too low. Hence is a potential top-of-the-rotation arm and in 2024 he will get his K rate back up and maintain his BB rate while pitching to better success at AA. The Tink Hence train will be rolling by mid-summer.
9) Drew Thorpe (CWS):
It feels like I’m writing a blurb on Thorpe being traded to a different team each time I go through a new iteration of my pitching rankings. In January, I ranked Thorpe 10th — I don’t think he’s done much to drop from his current standing and I’m not letting small sample sizes or the fact that A.J. Preller was willing to include him in a deal for Dylan Cease make me change my initial evaluation on Thorpe. Yes, the fastball isn’t what you’d like to see but it does play up given that he has a Bugs Bunny changeup. It’s one of the best secondaries in the minors and I think people are forgetting that fact. The slider has also shown promise and flashed plus at times.
The K rate isn’t as high as it was last year to begin 2024, but I’m not entirely concerned. He’s still a control freak and the command to go with his excellent feel to pitch and borderline illegal changeup should have him pitching on the Southside at some point this year.
10) Bubba Chandler (PIT):
Chandler has impressed me this season. In fact, he’s impressed me dating back to last year. What he’s done isn’t easy — converting from a full-time hitting prospect to now being one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. The developmental gains Pittsburgh has made on their pitching side are nothing short of miraculous. It’s a legitimate pitching factory and I’ve been saying it for some time now. Jared Jones is a prime example this year. Paul Skenes is another — the fact that they drafted him 1st overall and are handling him the way they are has me convinced they have a better understanding of what they’re doing.
Those two examples above are just the tip of the iceberg. Chandler should be the prime example — converting a position prospect into a heralded pitching prospect isn’t easy and that’s both a testament to Pittsburgh’s development and Chandler’s acumen, athleticism, and adaptability. Alliteration aside, I ranked Chandler 20th in my January ranks. Here is what I wrote:
As a 20-year-old last season, Chandler sort of had a tale of two halves: He picked it up to finish off the season in his final 9 starts. Over those 9 starts, he pitched to a 1.66 ERA over 48.2IP. He lowered his BB% from 12.5% to 7.2% to end his year capped off by a dominant start in AA in which he went 5 innings of 1 hit ball allowing no runs and striking out 8. Chandler is a bright spot and a part of this Pirates rebuild. If the strides he made in lowering his BB% and improving his command are real then we are looking at Chandler being a solid future SP2/SP3.
2024 has seen him tick the walk rate back up a bit but it’s still early and I am counting on Chandler to find his groove. The K rate sits at a solid 28% while the Walk rate is 12.2%. Don’t be fooled though, he hasn’t walked more than 2 batters in a single outing thus far this year. He is sitting mid to upper 90s with 18-20 in. of iVB. The slider is upper-80s-low-90s and has a ton of sweep while the CH shows decent separation with excellent fade. My initial evaluation of Chandler was that he’d be a solid mid-rotation starter but there is a ceiling here that points to a potential frontline guy if everything falls into place.