Top 100 Hitting Prospects - May 2024 Update
Non-Debuted Prospects Only
1) James Wood (WAS)(OF):
Not to be confused with the dude who played himself in one episode of Entourage in 2006, Wood has made a name for himself on the diamond. He’s the number one ranked-hitting prospect for my money who has not debuted. And by the way, the actor’s name is James Woods, so it’s not even exactly the same but when you search James Wood’s name on Google — James Woods, the actor, is the suggested result. I don’t know much about that guy, but I have seen him in the Virgin Suicides playing the father role who doesn’t have his house in order. While he was a reserved and passive man in the movie, I can’t say the same about James Wood, the prospect. Wood looks like he’ll be a mainstay in a Nationals lineup with a burgeoning star in C.J. Abrams and future potential studs in Dylan Crews and Brady House, to name a few. He’ll likely have his own entourage surrounding him in that lineup in the next year or two.
While Crews and House are further away, Wood’s call-up is imminent. He’s slashing: .344/.443/.552 over 149 plate appearances as of this writing. He’s hit 5 homers and has 9 stolen bases in 32 games at the AAA level. He’s melted off 12 points on his K-rate as it went from 33.7% at AA last year to 20.1% this year at a higher level. The Z-contact is looking good at 83.8% and the power metrics are unsurprisingly elite.
Wood has a 94.6 Avg. EV, a 109.5 90th percentile EV, and a 115.3 mph Max EV.
James Wood is just destroying the ball down at AAA, despite his groundball rate being up to 53%. His launch needed to pick up after going 21 games without a homer and he’s now homered 3 times in his last two games.
I ranked Wood 4th in my Top Dynasty 75 OF Prospects on February 12th and he’s beat my wildest expectations when it comes to his plate approach. Here is what I wrote:
Wood has been in my top 5 OF for two years now and the upside shows why. I actually don’t think he had that bad a year last year, only confirming my belief that he’ll be a power-hitting specimen at the big league level. We’ll get to that later. First, let me mention why he’s 4th on this list:
This type of upside is freakish. We’re looking at plus speed and plus-plus power coming from a kid who’s 6’6 maybe 6’7’’ — and given his frame he’s likely to retain his speed and steal bases in the future.
Now let’s get to his 2023 season. He split time between A+ and AA hitting 26 homers and stealing 18 bags in 132 games. He had a .255 ISO and a 132 wRC+ — as a 20-year-old.
Now let’s get to the concerns. His K rate. He struck out 31.9% of the time — yet he still managed to put up good numbers. Will he drop his K rate enough so that he’ll hit consistently?
Let’s look at his first 40 games at AA. He slashed: .207/.312/.421 and struck out 31.8% of the time.
In his final 47 games at AA, he slashed: .281/.354/.551 but struck out 35.4% of the time.
He hit more and he hit harder while striking out more, that’s both promising and concerning. I think it’s promising that he’s putting up these numbers despite the K rate as we’ve seen younger players adapt and lower the strikeouts as they’ve matured and ascended through the upper minors. I think that’ll be the case with Wood. We’re not necessarily looking at someone who will drop his K rate to 20% but is it possible that he drops it to the 25-28% range? I believe so. And if he were to do that, the probability of reaching his ceiling increases — a 35+HR potential bat to go with 15-20 steals a year is a nice asset to have in fantasy.
I truly believed Wood would lower his K rate to 25-28%, but I didn’t envision him hovering around the 20% mark after nearly 150 plate appearances. He’s been excellent in that regard and the power potential to blend with his potential stolen base output puts him atop this list.
*Since I started writing this, Wood has hit 2 more homers — the kid just absolutely rakes and is dominating the competition at AAA. I felt like I needed to include this*
2) Coby Mayo (BAL)(3B):
Coby Mayo is a young masher — it’s that simple. The problem right now is there’s no space in Baltimore for him and either he’s traded or they gut up and make space for him as he has the potential to be an Austin Riley-lite or a Troy Glaus-lite if things work out in the big leagues. The body and the power just make it easy to make those comps — but be warned — comps are just comps. He’d have to hit his 95th% outcome to become those, however, his ability and profile point to him having the potential to capture that form. Reality doesn’t always grant potential, though, so that’s why there’s always caution to be exercised with prospects.
Let’s get to the good, without a disclaimer about how prospects aren’t always guaranteed hits.
In 2024, Mayo is slashing .295/.366/.609 with 12 homers and 9 doubles in 37 games at AAA. Much like Wood, the power metrics look unsurprisingly elite. He’s posting an average EV of 93.7 mph and a 90th-percentile EV of 108.1 mph. He’s absolutely scorching the ball and has hit some undoubted piss missiles in the early going.
The Z-contact looks good at 84.2% and I’d say the only concern is his K rate being at just under 30% — at 28%. The whiff rate is 28%, so it’s not a red flag or anything. Mayo looks like he’s going to be an absolute masher — but remember I said the same thing about Colt Keith in the offseason — both were ranked in similar tiers and both were labeled “XBH machines” — while I still think Keith reaches a better outcome than he’s posted so far in his debut, I think Mayo has the potential to be better overall.
3) Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN)(OF):
I’m admittedly a big Em-Rod guy and ranked him fairly aggressively this offseason. My reasoning was mentioned in a Q&A by xwbaseball: Here is what I wrote:
Let's go back to the world of stocks when discussing Emmanuel Rodriguez. The prospect world isn’t much different when weighing future projections. To put it simply, E-Rod has as much upside as anyone in the minors, though there are concerns.
The plate approach is notorious and I think he may be divisive because of his level of passivity when it comes to his approach. He doesn’t chase outside the zone and ran chase rates so low that they were borderline Death Valley, especially for a player so young.
As I mentioned earlier if Chourio through Caminero is my Google, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft, consider Emmanuel Rodriguez my CRISPR. There’s a lot of divisiveness when it comes to the tech yet nobody in their right mind doubts the upside and game-changing ability it offers. E-Rod is a potential 30-35+ HR bat if he were a bit more aggressive, and while the K rates may always be fairly high, his walk rates offset it, giving him a high OBP floor and a huge slugging ceiling. I view him as a consensus top 5-10 prospect at the end of this year, so why not include him where I see fit a year before if I’m projecting a breakout season?
Em-Rod is my CRISPR and I want to weigh him appropriately in my ranks regardless of his potential outcome. I think his ceiling points to a potential 30+HR guy with double-digit steals potential, possibly 20+. The metrics with Em-Rod may always be divisive when evaluating him but that seems to be who he is at this point. And who he is is a player who is still just barely 21 and in AA — ready for a big league debut by next year. He will walk, he will strike out, and he will hit his homers. And for someone who gets on base as much as he does, he will run.
4) Walker Jenkins (MIN)(OF):
In most years, Walker Jenkins would’ve been the first overall pick. The 2023 draft class just happened to include Wyatt Langford, Paul Skenes, and Dylan Crews — three of the most heralded collegiate players in recent memory.
I view Jenkins as a potential top overall prospect after this year after the others above him graduate. I think he’s that good and he combines a hit and power tool from the left side that is precocious for a prep bat. He had an excellent sample at the Complex and at Low-A last year, which confirmed my belief as he slashed: .362/.417/.571 with 3 homers and 6 steals.
He’s already listed at 6’3 210 and there’s reason to believe there’s more to project in terms of growth which indicates more power on the table. The hit tool is unquestioned as he showed an uncanny ability to hit for average as evidenced by his upper percentile Z-contact at Low-A last year — regardless of the small sample.
Although there’s been no update to Jenkins’ injury, my evaluation and projection of him doesn’t change. I’ll add that it is worrisome that there hasn’t been any update and he’s missed this much time from an injury initially classified as ‘not serious.’ I’m assuming Minnesota is exercising caution with their prized prospect and that we see him by mid-season. It’s too early to change my initial evaluation after one and a half months, especially if he hasn’t seen the field. I’ll adjust my rankings accordingly after more information about his injury is unearthed.
5) Matt Shaw (CHC)(2B/3B):
I think Matt Shaw may be pressing a bit at the plate or he’s dealing with an injury of sorts but is playing through it. I don’t want to speculate too much, but he attempted 9 steals in his first 15 games and stole 7 successfully. In his last 14 games, he hasn’t had a single stolen base attempt. Yes, he’s in the midst of a cold streak and he isn’t getting on base as much as his first 15 games but he’s still walked 8 times and has had 5 singles in that span. Going from being that aggressive to start the season to absolutely nothing in that department in such a short span definitely has me raising my eyebrows.
Despite, my concerns — my evaluation of Shaw has actually improved. If fully healthy, I think the speed is real and the power potential is real. He passes the eye test and looks the part at the plate. The Swing% is low to start the year, but again I think he’s playing through some ailments. All 3 of his homers and all 7 of his steals came in his first 15 games. He has legitimate 25-25 potential and I am looking forward to seeing him pick it up at AA by mid-season.
6) Samuel Basallo (BAL)(1B/DH):
Every time I see Samuel Basallo swing a bat, I’m reminded of how precocious he is. Basallo started the season off slowly which was a shock to see after how incredible he looked last year. He was a quick riser as he ascended 3 levels and reached AA by the age of 19. Well, he’s still 19 and he’s hit 4 homers in his last 9 games, showing that he might just be heating up. He’s striking out less in his last 9 games and his contact has gone up.
I ranked Basallo as my number 1 catching prospect in the offseason and because he won’t stick at the position, he’s going to have to mash as a DH or 1B. If he ever spelled Adley at Catcher to give him a rest for enough games and retained C eligibility his stock would soar. I can’t count on that happening for sure but his ranking here is indicative of him being a DH or 1B in the future. I think the bat is for real and I think he’s going to rake, even if he needs another year at AA to really polish up his game.
Here is what I wrote about Basallo in the offseason:
Basallo is without a doubt my top catching prospect. He’s likely to move to first-base but as of this writing you can go ahead and try buying as he may have C eligibility upon arriving to the majors. For how long? I don’t know. What I do know is Basallo is a 19 year old who has shown an advanced approach, burgeoning hit tool and excellent power development while improving at each level in the minors. He was 18 years old playing at 3 different levels during the 2023 season.
In 83 games at A ball to start the 2023 campaign, Basallo slashed .299/.384/.503 while posting a BB% of 11.6% and a K% of 20.7%. He hit 12 Home Runs and had an ISO of .205. Good Stuff. Here’s where it gets better:
In his final 31 games between A+ and AA, Basallo slashed .351/.450/.685 while increasing his BB% to 15.3% and lowering his K% to 16.0%. He hit 8 Home Runs in his final 31 games and had an absurd ISO of .333 to go with a 198 wRC+. This put him atop the HitTilt+ leaderboard for 2023 which is incredibly impressive stuff given his age and level:
He posts excellent EV’s given his age and had a truly breakout 2023 which puts him atop my Catcher Prospect rankings for 2024. Go get him if you still can
7) Owen Caissie (CHC)(OF):
No, I’m not a Cubs fan. Caissie is just that good. He’s improved his approach this year at a higher level as his walk rate has gone up by 5 points and his K rate has gone down by 4 points. I was high on him in the offseason and I’m even higher on him now. Here is what I wrote in my top 75 Dynasty OF Prospect ranks from February:
Caissie obliterates baseballs as shown by his ridiculous EV numbers — 110mph 90th percentile EV. Like Chourio, he spent the first half of his season in the Southern League where they pre-tacked the balls. As the concern has always been strikeouts let’s take a look at Caissie’s K rates before and after the pre-tacked balls.
First 74 games (tacky ball): K%: 33.9% — ISO: .239 — wRC+: 133
Final 49 games (freedom era): K%: 27.1% — ISO: .209 — wRC+: 154
This shows that despite the tacky ball, Caissie was hitting for power regardless. And after the tacky ball, Caissie lowered his K% by over 6 points while still hitting for power and producing runs. He was just 20 years old last year at AA where he hit 22 homers in 120 games. The change in his K rate after the tacky ball was removed is a promising sign.
As I wrote earlier, Caissie obliterates the ball. That’s not something I say lightly, he hits the ball hard and he hits the ball far — when he’s barreling. The concern is his 63.6% Z-Contact%. His chase rate stands at the same rate as Chase DeLauter — 32.5% — yet he’s a year younger and he held it at a level above (though his contact on pitches outside the zone isn’t bad, it’s not nearly as elite as DeLauter’s). He needs to increase his zone contact to effectively hit more consistently and to give himself the opportunity to barrel more balls. If we see Caissie hovering around a 25% K rate while also increasing his in-zone contact to above 70-75%, I have no doubt we’re looking at a premier power hitter at the outfield position — although he has been taking reps at 1B this spring.
Caissie’s Z-contact has improved significantly and is sitting at 81.6% while he is chasing at just 24.4% of pitches.
The power metrics look excellent as he’s posting an Average EV of 90.8 mph and a 90th-percentile EV of 107.7 mph. His Max EV on the season is 115.5 mph which is slightly higher than James Wood’s max on the season. He’s a 21-year-old at AAA who is slashing: .281/.421/.438 with 3 homers and 4 steals in 36 games — .304/.455/.478 with a 150 wRC+ in his last 21 games. He’s hit all 3 homers and stolen 4 bases in his last 21 games.
I think Caissie is criminally underrated given the improvements he’s shown at a higher level and given his age/level production. Add this to the fact that he has some of the best power potential in the minor leagues and is a better athlete than he’s given credit for and we’re looking at someone who might be a premier slugger in the big leagues given some more seasoning in the minor leagues. There’s no need to rush someone this young and I’d like to see him down at AAA for most of the season, if not all. Let this one simmer and the dividends will pay off.
8) Roman Anthony (BOS)(OF):
Roman Anthony is from Florida and he’s playing in Portland, Maine to start the season. I haven’t looked at the average temperatures but I’d think they’re a lot different than what he’s used to down in Florida. It’s no excuse and it’ll stop being an excuse as he eventually plays in Boston, but I’m giving him a pass for his poor start to the season. I still think Anthony has the potential to be a star in the making in Boston. The Z-Contact looks good despite him striking out over 31% of the time to start the season. I think it’s an anomaly and the K rate will come down as the summer months roll around. Anthony has premier slugger at a premier position written all over him if things go his way.
9) Dylan Crews (WAS)(OF):
I can’t say I’m not concerned about Crews’ K-rate to start the season. The power and speed blend is still enticing and he’s got the bat speed and quick hands to be a legitimate XBH machine in the big leagues.
Crews is going to need to lower that K rate to see positive dividends and it wouldn’t be a proper evaluation to write him off without seeing if he can make the necessary adjustments. AA is a tough atmosphere — and it takes some hitters time to adjust. I think Crews has the ability to make the right changes and increase his production at the level. There’s legitimate 20-20 potential here and even if the K rate stays a bit high, he still has the potential to reach his 20-20 outcome.
10) Colson Montgomery (CWS)(SS):
Colson Montgomery has been on a mini-heater of sorts lately. That’s not why he’s ranked this high. I ranked Colson Montgomery as my 2nd best SS prospect behind Jackson Holliday in the offseason and here is what I wrote:
Big for a shortstop, Montgomery still possesses good hands and a good glove — good enough instincts to stick at the position. That’ll be Chicago’s call. Montgomery missed the first half of 2023 with an injury (which still seems to be nagging him) and returned in June to a handful of CPX games before repeating A+ for a 17-game stint where he slashed .347/.537/.552. He walked more than he struck out. He was promoted to AA in August and finished his 2023 season there.
If you take the 17 games he played at A+ and the 37 games he played at AA, Montgomery is one of two shortstops with at least 250 plate appearances above rookie ball with a BB/K of at least 0.85 and a wRC+ greater than 150. The other? Jackson Holliday. In fact, the numbers across the board look identical:
Holliday (A,A+,AA,AAA) - BB/K: 0.86 / OBP: .442 / ISO: .176 / wOBA: .429 / wRC+: 159
Montgomery(A+, AA): - BB/K: 0.88 / OBP: .445 / ISO: .190 / wOBA: .419 / wRC+: 152
Holliday was 19 and exhibited this for over 140 games while Montgomery was 21 and displayed this for just over 50 games. Despite not having quite the same profile as Holliday, it isn’t inconceivable that Montgomery turns in seasons on par with Holliday given his high floor, sparing the speed and base-running. The ceiling just isn’t anywhere near as high.
Montgomery even finished 16th in the HitTilt+ final rankings for 2023:
The White Sox are without a true shortstop so we might see Montgomery up early in 2024 if he doesn’t break camp to begin with. We’re looking at a solid high floor with enough ceiling (20-25+HR and high OBPs) to put him at 2nd on this list.
My evaluation of Colson isn’t changing from the offseason despite him running a K rate much higher than last year in the early going. It’s not something I like to see but I think Montgomery is someone who can make the necessary adjustments and there’s more power in the tank than some people think.