TiltValue Leaderboard June 24th 2024

We’re now entering the dog days of summer and TiltValue is starting to normalize, however, some pop-up arms have shot up the leaderboard after starting the season injured. One such name is Logan Henderson, who I’ve touted all offseason, and he’s gotten off to a tremendous start with three straight excellent starts at the AA level.

He comes in at Number 2 on the Leaderboard. The top spot belongs to Alejandro Rosario who was recently promoted to High-A. Both Rosario and Henderson should be targeted in leagues at this point and I would be looking to acquire both.

The data on Rosario is promising. He’s throwing about 95-98 with his fastball and it has both 15 inches of vert and 15 inches of run — it’s a fastball that is reminiscent of George Klassen’s, in my opinion. It acts as almost a 2-seamer and it definitely plays — the higher he ascends up the minor league ladder will prove a lot. He also has a slider and a splitter which both seem like plus pitches — in short, Rosario looks like the real deal and maybe developing a 4th pitch is the difference between good and very good once he hits the upper minors.

Logan Henderson is someone I wrote about extensively this offseason after I received word that his fastball gained about 4-5 ticks in velocity and that the induced vertical break on his fastball is now regularly in the 18-20-inch range. There was word that he worked on a slider this offseason to complement his nasty changeup and while he doesn’t seem too confident in using the slider in any count, he has flashed the pitch at times and when it’s on it looks like a decent offering. Here is what I wrote about Henderson in February:

I’ll go as far as to say that Logan Henderson has one of the best changeups in the minor leagues. He plays his fastball off his changeup while the missing ingredient has been a third out pitch. Reports are that he’s been tinkering and working on his slider/curve to be more effective and we may see him use it more than 10% of the time in 2024.

Henderson repeated Low-A in 2023 and displayed better command while still racking up strikeouts — 35.2% K rate and an 8.6% BB rate. He finished the season with a 2.75 ERA and a 2.89xFIP in 78.2 innings of work.

His fastball sat at around 90-92 last year with no special outliers on its pitch shape.

This offseason, there have been reports that his fastball is now touching 95-96 with an IVB ranging between 18”-20” — and while there’s reason to be wary of offseason metrics in indoor bullpen sessions there’s reason for optimism here. Henderson is slight of frame and has a low release causing the VAA on his fastball to play. If the reports of his IVB being at least 18 inches are true then that’s a profound game-changing pitch for Henderson, to pair with his devastating changeup. As far as velocity is concerned, touching 95-96 doesn’t mean he’ll be sitting there in games, as he’ll much more likely be sitting 91-94, but with an IVB of the reported range, his fastball immediately turns into a borderline elite pitch to play off that changeup.

Henderson isn’t a complete unknown at this point but he is someone who should be monitored more closely. I’m going as far as to say that Logan Henderson will be this year’s Drew Thorpe. Keep an eye out for him and watch his starts closely. If the fastball velocity gains and the vertical break are for real, we’re looking at a pitcher who is going to be climbing my rankings aggressively. I’d get in early.

The early returns are promising. Henderson has had 3 starts at AA and has pitched at least 5 innings in each of them allowing just 2 earned runs total in those 3 starts. He has 39 strikeouts in 27.1 IP this season and is ascending his way up the TiltValue leaderboards much like Drew Thorpe did last year.

I’ll cut to the chase and post the link to the TiltValue leaderboard to see the list of over 700 pitchers. Enjoy!