TiltValue Leaderboard July 7th

With only 2 minor league games slated on the schedule today and tomorrow being Monday (off-day for most affiliates), the TiltValue Leaderboard will be released today. There aren’t many shakeups near the top as just Alejandro Rosario and Logan Henderson have switched spots with Henderson taking the top spot in the newest iteration. I will do something new along with posting the Tableau link of the Leaderboard below - I will list every pitcher in the top 100 who also has a SwStr% of over 17% to give you guys a better idea of who to target and to keep an eye on.

Let’s start with the top 20:

I’ve calculated each pitcher’s innings pitched per game to also give you a better idea of how deep each is going into games. For example, Edgardo Henriquez is only pitching 1.524 innings per appearance. He’s assuredly destined for the bullpen and I wrote about him earlier in the season. I think he is a prime target if you’re looking for a future frontline closer or high-leverage arm out of the bullpen. Here is what I wrote about Henriquez on May 21st:

Edgardo Henriquez is a name that is popping up and is someone to keep an eye on. He’s been hitting triple digits with his fastball and has a 47.5% K rate. He hasn’t thrown more than 2 innings in any outing thus far, but the fastball alone is electric and a high-leverage arm or shutdown closer looks to be his calling. In his High-A debut, he sat 99-101 and topped out at 102 mph. He also flashed a tight slider which sat around 91-92 and looks to be another nasty offering. Dare I say, we’re looking at a potential fast climber who can be in the Dodgers bullpen by the end of the year or sometime next year.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Dodgers develop him further and I wouldn’t completely rule out a future as a starter (He does have a changeup and a curve, after all). Wilder things have happened, though his immediate future is likely in the bullpen, and rightfully so.

I’m monitoring Henriquez as a potential elite bullpen arm who likely has an immediate impact upon call-up — and the cost won’t be as reflective as some of the elite RP you have to pay up for. I think his ceiling can be one of the top closers in the game. Keep an eye out.

As far as going deep into games is concerned, Zebby Matthews and Quinn Mathews are two arms to absolutely target and I’d be looking to acquire both. Zebby Matthews is a control freak — literally. He has 87 strikeouts to just 4 walks(!) in 75 innings pitched this season. His stuff is better across the board this year and he’s looking like another pitcher in line to make his debut at some point later in the year for Minnesota. I think he is ready, personally. The stuff gains cannot be ignored and the command is off the charts. I’d actually like to see him be a little “wilder” once he hits the big leagues and uses more waste pitches to keep hitters off-balance. But why mess with a recipe that’s been an incredible success so far at AA.

Quinn Mathews is an arm who I wrote about immediately after catching a start of his as I was blown away by the gains in his stuff as well. He’s throwing the fastball harder and it’s a low release point, high iVB combination that is stifling hitters at every level he’s pitching at. He’s one of the highest risers among pop-up pitching prospects this year, in my opinion, and if he is still out there, I’d be running to acquire him as I only think he gets better once he gets more refined. Here is what I wrote about Quinn Mathews in my Top 100 Pitching Prospects Update from May:

There has been a bit of a development here with Mathews. Yes, he’s pitching to great results as he now has a 0.50 ERA and a .115 Average Against through 4 starts (18 IP). But the pitch shape on his 4-seamer is unique and the velocity was up last night. He averaged 94.1 mph with his 4-seamer on April 5th and last night he averaged 95.5 mph with the 4-seamer. He is getting consistent iVB of over 18 inches and his VAA is -4.1 degrees. The combination of low VAA and high iVB paired with legitimate mid-90s velocity, which touched 97.3 yesterday, is going to be an outlier pitch for him. People are going to start noticing and I’m going as far as to say that he’s a more noteworthy pickup than George Klassen at this point. I still worry about Klassen’s future command and how he fares moving up the chain. With Mathews, it gives me a little more peace of mind knowing he has 4 other pitches that he can go to in any count, and if the fastball shape and velocity hold up from last night — that gives him an elite offering which might be the most unheralded and underrated in the lower minors right now. And it’s coming from the left side.

The slider generated a 66.7% whiff rate while the changeup generated a 61.5% whiff rate and he threw the changeup more than he threw his 4-seamer. That bodes well as he’s not just getting by on an outlier pitch which he easily can do at this level. He’s going to need to mix it up and mix it up well as he climbs the ladder.

I’m officially planting the flag on Mathews. He threw 83 pitches on April 19th and 90 pitches last night. The Cardinals are not afraid to stretch these arms out in the lower minors (except for Hence given his age). Mathews was a 4th round pick in last year’s draft out of Stanford — I love a brain. He wasn’t hyped up much coming out of High School nor was he one of the top-tier arms to go in last year’s draft. But he might just be one of those 4th rounders who climb the ranks every given year from relative obscurity to relevance.

He is way too advanced for Low-A, but the fact that he has 5 pitches and his fastball is an outlier with both flat angle and good ride has me all in on him right now. There’s been a lot of breakouts at the Low-A level but Quinn Mathews seems like the best bet to me right now. Plus, give me the Stanford brain.

Well, he’s now at AA and has 2 starts under his belt with a 2.53 ERA. He’s walked 5 batters in 10.2 IP which is something he’s going to have to control but it’s not a red flag as he only walked 9 batters in 43.2 IP at High-A before being promoted. He’s one of my favorite pop-up arms this year and looks destined to be a legitimate lefty option as a Starter in St. Louis for years to come. Of course, anything can change with these prospects, but he is a bet of mine for this year going into next.

Let’s get to listing all the pitchers on the Top 100 TiltValue Leaderboard with a SwStr% of over 17%. I’ll post the entire leaderboard as usual after this rundown so you can have it as a resource going into the 2nd half of the season.