Spring Tilt - AL Edition - Pitchers

We’ll go over 15 notable pitching prospects and their Spring Training performances from the AL.

I posted the start dates and end dates of all the minor league levels in my first Spring Tilt post and if you missed it, I’m going to lead with that and post it again just as a resource for you all.

There’s less than a week left before the regular season truly starts (Seoul Series, aside). The AAA season begins March 29th, a day after the MLB season gets going. The AAA season will end on September 22nd. That’s nearly a full six months of AAA ball on the docket for 2024, which should be exciting.

Low-A, High-A, and AA will all begin their seasons on Friday, April 5th. So we’ll have a full week of Major League Baseball before the real prospecting fun at the lower levels and AA can begin. Low-A and High-A will end their regular seasons on September 8th, while AA will finish its regular season on September 15th.

The CPX leagues will begin on May 4th this year and will end on July 25th. It’s been moved up a month from previous years. The DSL should start around the same time as it did in 2023 which was the first week of June.

Let's get started on some notable pitching performances from AL prospects from this Spring:

AL Notable Performances from Spring Training:

Pitchers:

Jackson Jobe (DET):

Jobe pitched 1 inning this Spring and he took the internet by storm as everyone was posting and reposting his highlights from that lone inning of work. It was a doozy. The stuff that he showed was electric — he was regularly pumping triple digits with his fastball. The 4-seamer topped out at 101.8 mph and averaged 19.2 in. of iVB. Those are absurd numbers. He also showed a filthy mid-80s slider to go with a low to mid-90s cutter and an 86 mph changeup which just dropped off the table with over 16 inches of horizontal movement. If this is the Jobe we’re going to see from here on out, he’s cementing himself as the clear-cut top pitching prospect in the game. I’ll go a bit further and say if this is the Jobe we’re going to see then he’s going to cement himself as one of the top big league starters in the league sooner rather than later.

Ty Madden (DET):

Madden got a little more work in this Spring than Jobe and looked to be vying for a rotation spot. He got optioned back to the minors a few days ago but it won’t be long until he’s vying for a spot in that rotation. He pitched 5.2 innings and allowed no runs while striking out 8. He did walk 4 batters but it’s such a small sample that it’s not something to throw a red flag over. He’s usually in the 9-10% walk rate range and that’s something to expect going forward. I wrote about Madden in my top 100 pitching prospects and to me, he has a starter’s arsenal, demeanor, and traits.

He threw 37 Statcast tracked fastballs this spring which averaged 95.7 mph with 16.9 in. of iVB and he threw it from a fairly low VAA at -4.8 degrees. It’s a solid pitch and he pairs it with an upper 80s cutter and a mid 80s slider. I’m starting off with just Detroit names and I’m not going to stop here:

Wilmer Flores (DET):

I ranked Wilmer Flores and Ty Madden nearly identically in my top 100 pitching prospects to begin the season. I was slightly higher on Flores. Flores averaged over 98 mph on his fastball this spring so that’s a good sign to see. He pitched 6.2 innings and averaged more than a K per inning. He did give up some runs but his FIP and xFIP sat at 2.08 and 2.85, respectively. Detroit has a staple of arms that are ready to contribute at the big league level and it looks like they have a little pitching factory set up, dare I say.

Cade Povich (BAL):

If you put Povich in a Braves uniform and squinted a bit you’d think Max Fried was pitching. The guys look like doppelgangers and even their mechanics and delivery are similar. I’ve always liked Povich even though he’s pitched to some weird results in the minors and has had issues with his command. For over 2 years now, I’ve been waiting for him to break out because I know the stuff is there. He showed a solid arsenal this Spring and it came with good results. The command issues might linger but if he can keep his BB/9 below 4 at this point then I think we’re looking at someone who can be an effective starter for Baltimore.

The lefty had a fastball average of 93 mph with over 18 inches of iVB which plays given his other stuff. He mixes that in with a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. The repertoire is there to be a capable big-league starter and a solid mid-to-back-end of the rotation type guy. If the command improves, there’s room for more.

Chayce McDermott (BAL):

McDermott is one of those guys who throws from a low angle and still gets excellent ride on his fastball. I love his profile. He’s a fairly low VAA guy who has at least 18 inches of iVB on his fastball and the fastball averages at least 95 mph. It’s a legit pitch. He mixes in the curveball, slider, cutter, and changeup effectively, too. Chayce only threw 6.2 innings this Spring but he didn’t allow a run and struck out more than a batter an inning. McDermott is one of the more underrated arms in prospect circles as I think he has the stuff and starter traits to be an effective big-leaguer. I’ll go a step further. I think he has the stuff to be a mid-rotation guy. I think his profile plays extremely well and I think he’s ready right now. Like with Povich, command will be the key ingredient. It’s something to watch and is a slight concern.

Trace Bright (BAL):

I wrote about Trace Bright in Pitching Prospects Outside the Top 100 to Target - Part 2. Here is what I wrote:

Trace Bright was 6th in the minor leagues in K/9 among pitchers with at least 80 innings and 5 games started with a 13.27 K/9. He is easily overlooked, although the Spring Breakout performance might be putting him on people’s radars.

He got three innings of work, allowing 1 run and striking out 4 batters. He had a 5 pitch mix which mostly included a fastball, curveball, and changeup, while he mixed in a cutter and sinker. He sat 94-96 on the night and every pitch he threw flashed plus according to Stuff+ models. Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott get a lot of the shine as the top pitching prospects in the Orioles system, but Bright might be up there with them.

He has what looks like a three-quarter release and looks like he gets great extension. He’s listed as the 17th prospect in the Orioles system according to MLB pipeline and if you know me by now then you know my thoughts on those rankings systems. They’re rarely updated and don’t account for much other than initial scouting reports. Bright had the results last year as he pitched to a 3.97 ERA and a 3.85 xFIP to go with a 33.9% K rate. He did have a 12.9% walk rate which he’ll have to work on as he ascends levels. I want to see Bright turn into a control freak and get that sub-9 % walk rate this year.

Ricky Tiedemann (TOR):

As of just yesterday, it was announced that Tiedemann is in contention to break camp and start the season in the big league rotation. I’m not sure how much stock I put into that just yet, but it’s noteworthy, to say the least. Tiedemann showed glimpses of being a dominant lefty this Spring. He’s got a heavy mid-90s fastball that can touch upper 90s. He averaged about 96 on it this Spring. There were some health concerns with his leg but he got over that fast like it was a stomach bug. Tiedemann is poised to be in the rotation this year and the only question is when. He’s succeeded at every level he’s been at and with his health cooperating, I don’t see it being any different when he’s up in the big leagues.

Joe Boyle (OAK):

Joe Boyle teased everyone in his first two Spring starts. So much so that people were scrambling looking to add him on waivers or draft him at some silly spot — He really had everyone convinced he was a control freak. Boyle didn’t walk a batter in his first 5.1 innings pitched and then proceeded to walk the world in his next 13 innings. He walked 15 in that span and gave up 11 earned runs. He’s just someone I can’t trust going forward. Guys with that bad of command don’t just turn it around and become control freaks overnight.

Will Warren (NYY):

I mentioned in an earlier post that Warren was a target going into this year. Here is the data point I shared:

Warren has done nothing to dispel his stuff this Spring and I still think he’s a good target. Jared Jones’ cost has skyrocketed but I think Warren’s has remained fairly steady. He’s fighting for that last rotation spot in the Yankees rotation but he’s going up against another guy who’s shown excellent Stuff this Spring - Luis Gil.

Luis Gil (NYY):

Luis Gil may be the breakout of the Spring when it comes to arms. He’s been consistently good averaging over 96.5 mph on his fastball with over 18 inches of iVB. His breaking stuff has looked good, too. He’s shown better control this spring than he has at any point in 15.2 innings pitched and he may just be a post-hype breakout.

Take a look at his Stuff+ numbers from this Spring in comparison to some other big names:

As of March 15th, he leads the league in Spring Training with a 138.5 Stuff+ (Minimum 100 pitches thrown). And on March 22nd, he went 4 IP 2 H 2 ER 5 K and maybe just cemented that last spot in the Yankees rotation.

Jack Leiter (TEX):

Leiter’s career path has been one to watch with intrigue. He was hyped coming out of college as one of the most heralded arms out there and he’s done nothing but struggle in the minor leagues. His command has literally disappeared. If he can find his command and Texas can help him regain some of that lost confidence, I think Leiter can be a helpful piece as a back-end of the rotation type. So far this Spring he’s pitched to mixed results, while still walking his fare share of batters.

The pitch data looks fairly good. He has an extremely low VAA at -3.7 degrees on his 4-seamer which averaged 96.3 mph. That’s a fastball that will play if his secondaries show any semblance of control. I’d monitor Leiter, but I wouldn’t be targeting him.

Jonathan Cannon (CWS):

Nothing jumps out at the page when it comes to Cannon and his pitch data. He has a regular fastball in the low 90s with no exceptional shape. His slider has some decent horizontal break and can be an out-pitch for him. I’m mentioning Cannon because he’s pitched to good results this Spring. He’s a control freak as he’s posted lower than a 3 BB/9 at every stop in the minors and this spring posted a 0.82 BB/9 in just 11 innings pitched. I think it was worth giving Cannon a shoutout after a solid Spring.

Nick Nastrini (CWS):

Nastrini is interesting. He’s making a case to be in the rotation on opening day. He’s pitched 11 innings and has struck out a batter per while posting a 0.82 ERA and a .135 Avg. against. He’s got a solid starter’s build and the kid is thick in all the right places. He can definitely be a back-end option for the White Sox to start the season.

Drew Thorpe (CWS):

Thorpe was traded in a package that sent Dylan Cease to the Padres. I liked Thorpe more on the Padres as I’m not a fan of the White Sox pitching development, but Thorpe has been big-league ready and has great command of his stuff already.

He has a Bugs Bunny changeup that literally stops in its tracks and that’s the pitch that’ll carry him to success if he fares well in the big leagues. I ranked Thorpe 10th in my top 100 pitching prospects to start the season because I think he’s as big-league-ready as there is. He’s had a solid spring outside of that one blow-up start after the trade. Fire up all the Thorpedo shares you have because the White Sox can’t in their right minds pretend like they have better options on the table than to put him in the rotation right out of the gates.

Justin Slaten (BOS):

A 26-year-old prospect who looks like he’s going to blow up in everyone’s faces. He’s got an excellent fastball that averages over 96 mph with 19 inches of iVB and a low 90s cutter to pair with that. Kyle Boddy and the rest of that Boston development team are going to do work on Slaten and Slaten may turn out to be the biggest sleeper coming out of that bullpen. I’d be targeting Slaten in deeper leagues, especially in Saves/Holds leagues as I think he’ll get a shot to even get some save opportunities if Kenly Jansen misses some time.