Player Breakdowns: March 31st
We'll go over video and my take on Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, & Cade Smith
Paul Skenes (PIT):
Skenes only threw 46 pitches in his first start at AAA going 3 perfect innings while striking out 5. His fastball averaged 100.1 mph and he threw it 21 times and generated a 54.5% chase rate and a 43% whiff rate. He threw the slider 11 times and generated a 75% whiff rate on the pitch. Watching the start, you could tell that Skenes had command of his slider, and 100mph anything will play well off of that (despite the shape).
1st inning: 15 pitches thrown — 1IP 0H 0ER 0BB 2K
Here is video of his whiffs and called strikes from the first inning. I found it interesting that he mixed in the changeup as often as he did in the first. He threw 4 changeups which were heavy in action averaging between 94-96 mph. Baseball Savant classified them as changeups and watching the action, they looked like changeups — I’m just in awe that the separation is that low and that he’s getting such good downward movement on the change which sits low to mid-90s. The spin profile is low enough to maybe have it be classified as some sort of split/sinker (splinker), but it’s a nasty pitch — especially with the FB and SL getting all the attention.
Here is the only ball in play during the 1st inning, which was a weak pop fly to end the inning:
Skenes walked off the mound slowly and deliberately with his head down the moment it was hit because he knew it was an out. Maybe there’s more swag to this kid than I initially thought. All offseason and after the draft I thought he had a robotic presence, but he’s a competitor. Don’t think him starting at AAA isn’t frustrating him.
2nd inning: 11 pitches thrown — 1IP 0H 0ER 0BB 2K
Here is film on the whiffs and CS he generated in the 2nd inning. It was a quick inning as he only faced the minimum and threw 11 pitches. He was mostly 4-seamer and slider in the 2nd with a few changeups thrown in.
He was in total command in the 2nd and that's right about when you knew this had the potential to be a special start if he wasn’t held to an early pitch count.
Here is the only ball put in play during the 2nd — a weak pop fly behind the 1st base side in shallow right field for the 2nd out of the inning:
3rd inning: 20 pitches thrown — 1IP 0H 0ER 0BB 1K
The 3rd was still perfect on Skenes’ end but it was a bit more laboring as he threw 20 pitches. He fell behind 3-1 to the first two batters. The 2nd batter of the inning managed to work the count to 3-2 and fouled off three 4-seamers before fouling one off into the catcher’s mitt for a strikeout. It was probably the most impressive at-bat of the day against Skenes as Conner Capel worked Skenes for 9 pitches before eventually getting rung up for the 2nd out of the inning. You can see a bit of the 3rd inning for yourself:
There were two balls in play, a broken bat bleeder to 2nd base which was 54.7 mph off the bat, and a harder-hit grounder to 3rd base which was 97.4 mph off the bat — both routine plays.
I’ll post the entire compilation of Skenes’ whiffs and called strikes for the afternoon below — if you’re into that sort of thing — all in all, he had 12 whiffs and 6 called strikes for a CSW% of 39% in his first outing.
I don’t see Skenes having an extended stay at AAA and expect him up in the big leagues by late April or early May. If his first start is any indication, he’ll slowly build up his pitch count each start until he’s ready for a full workload when he’s up with the Pirates.
Speaking of the Pirates — my next breakdown is going to be another rookie arm who instead broke camp with the team.