Player Breakdowns - July 5th

Brandon Sproat & Logan Henderson

Player Breakdowns will be back a few times per week and we’re kicking it off this time around with Brandon Sproat of the Mets and Logan Henderson of the Brewers.

I’ve written extensively about both in the offseason and early on in the season and have been a big proponent of their rise through the mid-season. I’ve been very vocal about Sproat and Henderson being potential top-100 prospects before they were even a seed of thought in most people’s minds.

Let’s start with Brandon Sproat.

Brandon Sproat (NYM) - AA:

Sproat had another quality start last night and it was a borderline excellent start as he cruised through 6.2 innings and could’ve easily finished seven strong if it weren’t for a few extra pitches thrown in the 3rd inning due to an error. His final line was 6.2IP 3H 2ER 2HR 2BB 9K.

He didn’t labor at all and was working at a faster pace than usual. Early on he was sitting 97-98 with both his sweeper and CH working for him. There’s not much left to say about Sproat’s ascension. He was too good for High-A and he’s proving to be just as good at the AA level. He’s now pitching to a 1.71 ERA between both levels and has a 2.05 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP at the AA level through 8 starts. He’s gone at least 6 innings in 6 of his 8 starts at AA and at least 5 innings in 7 of his 8 starts. The lone start in which he didn’t reach 5 innings, he went 3.2IP 2H 1ER 1BB 8K and was taken out early. This is a budding star and someone who is likely a top 10-15 pitching prospect in all of baseball at this point. I ranked him accordingly in my early May update and was probably too low on him. Here is what I wrote:

We’re back to the Mets pitching factory and I think by this time next year, we’ll look back at this ranking and see that Sproat was ranked too low. He’s one of the post-first-round arms I’m highest on and the development has been a sight to see. I featured Sproat as a target on March 4th and here is what I wrote:

I’m going to go as far as to say that the Mets have a little pitching factory on their hands. They have another wave of arms coming up that is going to change the industry’s thoughts on the organization. Christian Scott is a University of Florida product the Mets developed and Brandon Sproat is going to be the next one.

Sproat has a mid to upper 90s fastball that sits 96-98 mph and he’s touched triple digits. He has a changeup that looks to be his most projectable plus breaking pitch to go along with an above-average slider. All the ingredients are there for Sproat to be an effective pitcher at the next level.

He has control but lacks command and Sproat is going to need to locate better if he wants to have success. Hitters will feast on a mid-90s fastball located middle-middle. That’s not a bad problem to have as it should be easy to develop his command and location on his pitches considering he does have solid control.

He’s going to be the next in line in this wave of arms the Mets have coming up which will have the industry in shock because they’ve built another pitching factory after going half a decade with no success.

Now let’s get to the Spring Breakout performance. First of all, it doesn’t add up. The Box Score says he threw 6 pitches with 2 strikeouts yet still got out of the full inning. Maybe he’s Superman and can just will his way through innings and outs without throwing a single pitch. Anyway, that’s what Spring baseball does — it has wonky numbers and isn’t always reliable. The pitch data on the other hand is another story.

Sproat threw 6 pitches and got 4 whiffs and he was up to 99 on the day. It’s hard to say he was sitting in a range considering he only threw 6 pitches but he was living 98-99. He didn’t get a chance to show his plus changeup and his above-average slider much but that’ll be evident this year when he starts in the minors. And trust me when I say this, but the kid can run it up to 101. That’s what put me onto him in the first place before the Spring Breakout game performance. His command looked sharp and he worked quickly. Sproat looks to be another Jagers and Mets pitching factory success story. He’s my pick in the organization to have a similar ascension to Christian Scott, both University of Florida products.

Back to last night’s start. Sproat allowed homers to both Kokoska and Sterlin Thompson as that was the only damage done to him on the night. The third hit he allowed was a bloop single that fell in for a base hit. Sproat struck out Adael Amador all 3 times he faced him and made him look silly at the plate. I don’t recall Amador looking that bad in a while. He walked 2 on the night and that is a point I want to make as Sproat’s walk rate has egregiously diminished since he was promoted to AA. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 walks in a single outing since being up at AA. The walk rate was nearly 16% at High-A and he’s currently working with a walk rate under 7%. If those gains stick, he’s a candidate to be in the Mets bullpen or even a spot starter towards the back half of the season if they are still in the Wild Card race. The mid to upper 90s fastball to go with the sweeper and changeup are legitimate weapons. He gets excellent horizontal break on the sweeper and the power changeup is a 3rd out pitch for him. Few expected Sproat to be good right away and he’s proven to be more than that. He’s cementing himself as a Top 75-100 prospect, maybe higher — and one of the premier pitching prospects in all of baseball. The Mets pitching factory is back after nearly a decade of irrelevance.

Here are the Whiffs and CS from last night’s outing so you can take a look for yourself: