Opening Night 2.0 Observations & Takes
Triple-A continued to carry on last night. Meanwhile, Double-A, High-A, and Low-A started the season off last night and we're here to go over some notables from all four levels
Low-A
Arms
Alex Breckheimer — St. Louis Cardinals
I’m going to start here because this is the kind of discovery that makes prospect writing worth doing. Alex Breckheimer was drafted by the Cardinals in the 16th round — 480th overall. Let that number sink in for a second. 480th. He’s listed at 6’5 270 (This is like Charles Barkley late Houston territory) which I don’t trust any more than I’d trust Woody Allen at a Chuck E. Cheese, but the point is he’s a big kid with a big arm and on opening night he showed exactly why the Cardinals — who know a thing or two about finding arms in the later rounds — were right to take a chance on him.
His 4-seamer averaged 94 mph with the kind of velocity variance that makes hitters uncomfortable — he was sitting anywhere from 92 to 98 on the pitch throughout the night. And then he threw one at 99 mph. One pitch. One pitch at 99 mph with 20 inches of induced vertical break. That’s not a pitch profile — that’s a weapon. The cutter was generating a 43% CSW and the slider was at 44% CSW. For a 22-year-old 480th overall pick, this is the kind of opening night performance that starts conversations. The Cardinals system has a pipeline for developing arms exactly like this and Breckheimer looks like he might be next in line. Plant the flag early.
Dylan Jordan — Los Angeles Angels
5 innings, 0 earned runs, 8 strikeouts, 0 walks, 76 pitches, 12 whiffs. Sitting mid-90s and topping 96. That’s a dominant line at any level. Jordan is an intriguing prospect for the Angels and this was the kind of performance that confirms the pre-season belief in his stuff. The whiff rate is the headline — 12 whiffs in 5 innings is legitimately elite and the command backed it up with zero free passes. The only thing standing between Jordan and a rapid climb through the system is the fact that it’s the Angels who are developing him. And if you know me, you know how I feel about that. The stuff is too good to ignore though — and for one night at least, Jordan looked like someone the industry is going to be talking about a lot more by mid-summer.
Dylan Brown — Boston Red Sox
5 innings, 0 earned runs, 0 hits, 6 strikeouts, 0 walks on 52 pitches. A perfect line. Brown is sitting 94 mph and the reports are that there’s more velocity in the tank as he matures and fills out. The secondaries are already solid and the command profile — 0 walks on 52 pitches — is the kind of efficiency that gets you promoted fast in the Red Sox system. Keep tabs on Brown. He’s not getting any attention right now and that window isn’t going to stay open forever.
Evan Siary — Texas Rangers
I love Siary’s delivery and I loved him coming out of Mississippi State. An 8th round pick in 2025 — the kind of arm that gets overlooked because everyone’s eyes are on the first three rounds — and he put up a line of 4 innings, 1 earned run, 8 strikeouts on opening night. The deception in his delivery is the carrying tool and it’s the reason hitters are going to struggle to pick up the ball. He’s a name I want to be early on and this was a good first step. Siary is a name to know.
Kendry Chourio — Kansas City Royals
I’ll be upfront — the line wasn’t great tonight. 3 innings, 4 earned runs, 2 strikeouts. The results aren’t the story with Chourio though. The stuff is. I’ll go as far as to say that Kendry Chourio is on a short list of arms who have a chance to be the top pitching prospect in baseball by the end of this season. One rough outing in the first week of the season changes exactly nothing about that evaluation. File this one under noise and hold onto your shares for dear life.
Nate Payne — Tampa Bay Rays
The best pure pitching line of the Low-A slate on opening night — 4 innings, 1 earned run, 8 strikeouts, 71 pitches. Payne is in the Rays system which means he’s going to get developed properly and given every opportunity to succeed. The K rate of 18.0 per 9 in that outing is legitimately elite. Keep an eye on Payne as the season progresses.
Nick Lodolo — Cincinnati Reds
Lodolo was rehabbing tonight — 2.2 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 4 strikeouts, 0 walks on 40 pitches. A big league arm making his way back through the system. The cleanness of the line is encouraging and 40 pitches at that efficiency level is exactly what you want to see from someone ramping up. Nothing more to add here — it’s a rehab start and Lodolo is on his way back.
Bats
Yolfran Castillo — Texas Rangers
2-for-3 with a double on opening night and I am firmly in on Yolfran Castillo. The arrow is pointing up and it’s pointing up aggressively. I love his game and his potential and this is a name I want to be out ahead of before the industry catches up. He’s showing exactly the kind of early indicators that make prospect evaluation worth doing. Remember the name. In fact, write it down Memento style.