Early Indicators: Breakout Arms & Bats to Watch — TiltValue & HitTilt+ (April 1st)
10 Early Indicator Arms and 11 Early Indicator Bats to monitor
Let me be upfront before we get into this. The sample sizes here are small. We're talking 1-5 IP for most pitchers and under 30 PA for most hitters. Calling anything here a "breakout" with a straight face would be dishonest — and I'm not in the business of that. What I am in the business of is finding the names worth monitoring before the rest of the world wakes up. Consider this your early warning system. These are the arms and bats that TiltValue and HitTilt+ are flagging right now, with the caveat that we revisit all of them once we have a real sample. Think of this as planting flags — not building monuments.
Early Indicator Arms (TiltValue)
Marco Raya — MIN (23)
Let’s address the elephant in the room right off the bat: Raya has 1 inning pitched. One. So when I tell you that TiltValue has him 7th overall and his xFIP is literally negative — a -2.57 — you are allowed to laugh. I would too. But here’s the thing. The underlying metrics behind that one inning are genuinely not real. He’s sitting 96.5 mph with 18.4 inches of IVB on his fastball and he generated a 31.6% SwStr%. That SwStr% isn’t a rounding error — that’s legitimately elite stuff. Don’t read too deep into the ERA and xFIP here because that’s what one ridiculous inning can do to a stat line when the denominator is essentially zero. What you should read into is the velo and movement profile, because that’s not going anywhere. Keep tabs on Raya. He’s been one of the more underrated arms in the Minnesota system and the stuff is way too good to be pitching in obscurity. The numbers will normalize. The stuff won’t.
Noah Schultz — CHW (22)
Schultz comes in 3rd overall on TiltValue with a 20% SwStr% and is sitting 96.7 mph over 4 innings. The WhiteChisox tank job means he’s developing in relative peace and quiet which, frankly, is ideal for a 6’9 lefty who is still figuring out how to go deeper into games. I wrote about Schultz last year and my feelings haven’t changed. The slider is as hellacious as advertised and when it’s on, hitters look like they’re swinging at a pitch in a completely different zip code. He gets the Randy Johnson comp because he’s a tall, lanky lefty — and look, I get it, I understand the reflex — but Johnson scared the living daylights out of hitters and I’m not sure Schultz has that same aura yet. What he does have is a fastball that plays off the slider beautifully and enough of a feel to keep this thing going as he climbs levels. The 4 innings is still too small to make grand declarations but the early returns confirm the pre-season belief: Schultz is for real. He’s going to be one of the top pitching prospects in this sport on upside alone once the Skenes and Jobes of the world graduate — and I’ll say that knowing there are a few arms in the lower minors I like even more on pure ceiling. That’s not a knock on Schultz. That’s just a testament to how deep this generation of pitching talent runs. Write that down.
Will Sanders — CHC (24)
Sanders slots in 8th overall and he’s the arm on this list with the most legitimate early sample — 3.2 innings, 1.78 xFIP, 14.73 K/9, and a 18.8% SwStr% to go along with a 93.6 mph fastball sitting at 15.8 inches of IVB. He’s not going to generate the same excitement as some of the higher-velo names on this list but Sanders is the type of pitcher I like to bet on. He’s a control artist who misses bats, limits walks, and generates soft contact. The xFIP of 1.78 is the number that jumps out at me — that’s elite underlying performance regardless of sample size. The Cubs have done a nice job developing pitchers and Sanders looks like someone who can benefit from that. He’s 24 which isn’t young — but neither was Drew Thorpe and look where that got him. Keep an eye on Sanders as one of the more overlooked arms in a loaded Chicago system.
Chase Petty — CIN (23)
Petty has had some of my confidence shaken in him this year but there’s enough here to keep him on the radar. He’s 4th on TiltValue in terms of legitimate innings pitched — 4.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.91 xFIP, and a 15.43 K/9. The 23.6% SwStr% is the number that stands out and it’s the highest of any pitcher on this list with more than 2 innings of work. He’s sitting 96.6 mph with the fastball. The stuff was never the concern with Petty — it was always about workload management and how he fares deeper into games. The early returns confirm the stuff is still there. Whether the results translate over a full season remains to be seen. He’s someone I’m cautiously monitoring right now rather than someone I’m running to the phone to acquire.
Levi Wells — BAL (24)
Wells is 26th on TiltValue and he’s one of the quieter names on this list, which is exactly the type of arm I want to be writing about. He’s sitting 96.1 mph with 18.1 inches of IVB — that’s an elite movement profile at an elite velocity. 2.25 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 13.5 K/9, and a 17.9% SwStr% over 4 innings. The Baltimore system is absolutely loaded with arms right now and Wells is getting drowned out by the noise of Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, and others ahead of him on the depth chart. That’s fine. That’s the sweet spot — getting in on someone before the hype machine catches up. If you can get Wells for cheap in your dynasty league right now, I’d be pulling the trigger. The stuff is elite and the early results are backing it up.
Miguel Ullola — HOU (24)
Ullola sneaks into the top 20 on TiltValue with the most innings of any arm worth highlighting here — 5.2 IP. He’s sitting 93.7 mph with 19.8 inches of IVB which is quietly one of the best IVB marks in this entire dataset. The 1.59 ERA pairs nicely with the 1.59 BB/9 — the kid is pounding the zone. The K/9 at 11.12 is more than respectable. He’s in the Houston system which has been a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to developing pitching talent but the underlying metrics here are hard to ignore. 19.8 inches of IVB on a 93+ fastball is an outlier pitch. If he can maintain that vertical break and command through his starts, Ullola is going to be a name that shows up in a lot more conversations before this season is over. Consider the flag planted.
Hagen Smith — CHW (22)
Smith checks in at 23rd on TiltValue and he’s another White Sox arm flying under the radar — which, again, is practically a prerequisite for playing in that organization right now. He’s sitting 96.4 mph with a 27.1% SwStr% over 3 innings. That SwStr% is the headline. There aren’t a ton of pitchers at any level who are generating a 27% swinging strike rate — that’s a legitimately elite number. The ERA of 3.00 and xFIP of 3.24 are fine for 3 innings of work. Smith was always a name I liked coming out of Arkansas and it looks like the pro transition is going smoothly. He’s 22 years old with a mid-90s fastball and an absurd whiff rate in the early going. The White Sox have nothing to compete for right now which means Smith is going to get every opportunity to develop. Pay attention.
Gabriel Hughes — COL (24)
I know what you’re thinking. Colorado. I said the same thing about Dollander. And I’m going to do the same thing here that I did there — remove the Rockies organization from my conscious thought and evaluate Hughes on his own merits. 5 innings, 3.60 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, 14.4 K/9, and a 11.8% SwStr%. The xFIP of 3.22 in the early going is encouraging. The fastball is 92.8 mph which isn’t going to get anyone’s heart racing but he’s generating strikeouts and limiting walks. The caveat is obvious — he’s going to be pitching at Coors eventually and I’m not going to sit here and tell you that’s not a concern, because it is. It’s a big concern. But the stuff is there and he’s one of the more legitimate early-sample arms on this list from a pure innings-pitched standpoint. File under: monitoring with one eye open and the other firmly on the altitude.
Will Childers — MIL (25)
Childers is the top arm on TiltValue and full disclosure — he has 1 inning. The numbers are borderline absurd: 18.0 K/9, 0.0 BB/9, 14.3% SwStr%, 92.8 mph fastball with 18.1 inches of IVB. He’s 25 years old which tempers the dynasty enthusiasm significantly, but the stuff is real. The IVB profile on his fastball is legitimately elite and he’s throwing it 92.8 mph which is enough velocity to make that movement profile lethal. He’s in the Milwaukee system which knows how to develop and deploy pitching. The age keeps him off the long-term radar but as a potential big-league contributor sooner rather than later, Childers is worth a closer look.
Brody Hopkins — TBR (24)
Hopkins is one of three arms on this list sitting in the elite velocity and IVB tier — 96.6 mph and 18.7 inches of IVB. That combination alone earns him a write-up. The 4.29 xFIP over 4 innings is the concern — it’s inflated by a 6.75 BB/9 which is way too high. The walks are the story with Hopkins right now and they’re going to need to come down for the stuff to fully play. But the stuff itself — a 96.6 mph fastball with nearly 19 inches of IVB — is the type of pitch that can carry a pitcher through his command issues in the short term while he figures it out. Hopkins is a high-variance name right now. The ceiling is real. The floor is a reliever. I’m planting the flag on this one. Big Brody guy.