2024 Dynasty OF Targets
I went over my 2024 top 40 Dynasty OF Rankings earlier and it can be found here.
First, I’ll post my Sleepers and Breakouts from my post from February 18th and then we’ll go into some deeper names.
Sleepers:
Eloy Jimenez:
Jimenez has battled injury after injury since his rookie season in 2019 in which he hit 31 homers and posted a .828 OPS. He’s one of those guys who feels like he’s been around forever, yet he’s only entering his age 27 season. In fact, he’d be ranked much higher if it weren’t for his injury history. I take the term “injury history” with a grain of salt, some guys truly are prone to injury but some are just unlucky.
in 2023, Jimenez played the most games he’d played since 2019 — 120 games. It was an inconsistent season for him as he hit just 18 homers with a sub-.800 OPS — out of the norm for Eloy. It’s not like his underlying numbers have taken a fall. Eloy’s making 81.7% contact in the zone while his 90th percentile EV is 108.4mph — Juan Soto territory. He’s being drafted way too late and his upside both short-term and long-term term isn’t indicative of his actual value. When the perceived value is lower than the actual value, that’s when you pounce. You can go ahead and grab Eloy in the later rounds or acquire him for less than a bent penny and get a dime in return. All that’s needed is health and I think we see a full-season of Jimenez this year. Bold prediction: Eloy plays at least 140 games and has an OPS over .850 while hitting at least 28 homers. Enjoy the returns.
*So far this Spring, Eloy is hitting over .500 and slugging over .750 in 10 games. He leads the league in hits this spring and that’s just a glimpse of Eloy getting in a groove when he’s healthy. Give us 140 games of Eloy and my prediction will seem prescient*
Michael Harris II:
How is the 9th overall ranked outfielder a sleeper you may ask? Well — it seems that Harris II is being underrated, yet again.
It was a tale of two halves for Harris II:
In his first 245 plate appearances, Harris II slashed: .254/.304/.425 for a wRC+ of 93
In his final 293 plate appearances, Harris II slashed: .325/.356/.520 for a wRC+ of 133
His EV numbers rose as the season went on and his 90th percentile EV for the season was 108.2mph — again, Juan Soto territory. Harris’ place in the batting order doesn’t even matter as he hit 9th for the majority of the year and he still scored 76 runs. If he gets a bump into the upper third of the lineup then his counting stats are going to skyrocket with Acuña and Olson surrounding him. I’m counting on him to be a #2 or #6 hitter this year, which will get those RBI and Run numbers up. He’s only 22 and already has two years under his belt with steady production. As of writing this, I’m wondering if he’s really a sleeper or a breakout candidate. Why not both? Bold prediction: Harris hits 25 homers while stealing 25 bags, putting up a .295 average.
*Harris is showing this spring he has legitimate 30-30 upside, belting 3 homers and slugging over .900 in 8 games. He’s the same age as your favorite prospect with two Major League seasons under his belt. He’s ready for a breakout.*
BREAKOUTS:
Jackson Chourio:
This might be the breakout before the actual breakout. There will be growing pains but I still see Chourio going 20-20 in his first year, given he gets a full slate of at-bats. After the Brewers invested over 80 million on him this offseason, I don’t see how they don’t give him a full season’s worth of at-bats — he’s going to be in the outfield every day, ride or die. The actual breakout is probably 2024 but 2023 will be a good indication of the skillset Chourio will carry over to the big leagues. I ranked him number one in my top 75 OF dynasty prospect rankings and here is what I wrote:
“Chourio is on the path to becoming a superstar in the big leagues — his 2022 season in which he ascended three levels as an 18-year-old put him on the map after a successful DSL debut in 2021. Blessed with incredible bat speed, Chourio has natural line-drive power and loft to his swing which will allow him to hit for power in the big leagues — and he has more to grow as he’s still just 19 as of this writing. There’s already current power and yet we can project for more once he’s filled out. He’s aggressive on the basepaths and provides dual-threat potential. We’re looking at a solid 20-20 base case floor for Chourio. The ceiling is even higher. There are potential MVP seasons on the horizon, but let’s not get carried away just yet. Let’s look at his 2023 season.
Chourio started 2023 at AA — in the Southern League — where they used the pre-tacked balls.
In the 71 games with the pre-tacked ball, he slashed: .249/.304/.410 to go with an 88 wRC+ and a .160 ISO.
In the 57 games after the removal of the pre-tacked ball, he slashed: .324/.379/.538 to go with a 141 wRC+ and a .214 ISO. Literally a tale of two halves for Chourio last year — and remember, he was just barely 19 years old at the time.
He totaled 22 homers and 43 steals in 122 games at AA last year before a six-game stint at AAA to close out the year.
Chourio’s Zone-Contact% ran at nearly 83% to go with just a 32.2% O-Swing%, making contact on 63.2% of pitches outside the zone — good signs to see from someone his age that has his level of aggressiveness at the plate.
In 6 games at AAA, Chourio ran nearly the same Zone-Contact% at 84.6% while his O-Swing% was 27.5% — making contact on 71.4% of pitches outside the zone, lowering his K-rate to just 4.2% (miniscule sample, I know).
Chourio’s maintained about the same BB rate his entire time in the minors (7-8%) while lowering his K rate last year significantly. He was in the lower 20s in 2022 and all the way down to 17.9% in 2023. He’s shown a more patient approach at the plate while still being able to produce the counting stats — power and speed numbers — we’re looking for. Ronald Acuña Jr. posted similar rates in his stint in the upper minors and look where he is now. That’s not a comp either, as it’s unfair to compare the best offensive player on the planet to a 19-year-old who just happens to have a similar skill set.
There’s more room for improvement with Chourio, which is scary to write. The ceiling is sky high and as written above, we’re looking at a potential MVP level peak-case of at least 30-30 to go with high averages in his prime — maybe as early as next year.”
Bold prediction: Chourio hits 22 homers and steals 34 bags while posting a .257/.333/.460 slash
*Chourio started spring training cold but all it took was a couple of games to get his slash up to .323/.364/.419. He hasn’t hit a homer yet but he’s capable of going on extended hot streaks and tearing it up as we’ve seen him do in the minors. Milwaukee’s given him the $80M extension and plenty of at-bats if that’s any indication that he’ll break camp with the team. He’s still my top overall prospect in Dynasty because the upside is that high.*
Wyatt Langford:
You didn’t think I’d do it, did you? Yes, both Chourio and Langford will break out. Langford will hit the ground running immediately. He was my 2nd ranked OF in my top 75 Dynasty OF rankings. Here is what I wrote:
“Texas just won the World Series and now they have arguably the best prospect in the game who is ready to help them immediately. Think of Chourio and Langford as more of a 1A/1B ranking on this list. Langford has hit at every level he’s been at, whether it was in college or whether it was in the minors last year where he hit 9 home runs in 41 games above rookie ball — ascending from A+ all the way to AAA while seemingly getting better at each stop.
The upper minors were no challenge for Langford. He showed an incredible approach increasing his BB rate at each stop while walking more than he struck out. He posted a 199 wRC+ and a .317 ISO — absurd numbers no matter how small the sample. He had a Zone-Contact% of 78.5% and an O-Swing% of 28.4% in High-A to go with a Zone-Contact% of 78.6% and an O-Swing% of 21.1% at AA. His O-Contact% was 86.7% which shows he can stay in at-bats and limit his K’s while being able to hit pitches out of the zone.
We’re looking at excellent OBPs to go with 25+ HR power and 20+ stolen bases — and sooner rather than later. I think Langford’s floor is higher than Chourio’s, although Chourio doesn’t get much credit for his floor. Langford’s base-case floor might be evident the moment he steps on a big league field. I don’t think it will take him much time to get acclimated at all — which is part of the appeal.
He’s truly an outlier of a hitter and should’ve been the number-one bat picked in the 2023 draft. A lot of people thought it. A lot of people felt it. A lot of people said it. Why it didn’t happen beats me. Instead, he fell to fourth overall to the reigning World Series champs. Some teams just have all the luck.”
Bold Prediction: Langford doesn’t break camp but gets called up soon after and finishes the season with 18 homers and 18 stolen bases with a slash of .288/.375/.455
*Langford had a quiet spring and then like Chourio, all it took was a few games and now it looks like he’s having a torrid spring. Langford has 4 homers in 9 games and it still looks like he won’t break camp. He’ll be called soon enough though because Texas will need his bat in the lineup. Everything is aligned for a breakout as I called earlier and now it’s just a waiting game until Texas announces he’s on the roster or when Texas decides to call him up.*
Let’s go over 12 targets at the OF position for 2024 and beyond. There will be no prospects listed and if you want to see my Dynasty OF prospect rankings as a resource, check it out here.