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Why PitchIQ Matters

For years, the conversation around minor league hitters has been incomplete. We’ve had batting average. We’ve had OPS. We’ve had wRC+ and ISO and stolen bases. What we haven’t had — at least not publicly, at least not at scale — is the discipline data. The pitch-level data. The stuff that tells you not just what a hitter did, but how he did it and why it’s going to hold up.

That changes today.

PitchIQ is a pitch intelligence leaderboard covering all four levels of affiliated minor league baseball — Triple-A, Double-A, High-A, and Low-A — tracking every qualifying batter who has seen 75 or more pitches this season. It updates automatically every morning. It is, to my knowledge, the most comprehensive publicly available pitch discipline resource for MiLB hitters that exists right now. I could be wrong and you can point me in the right direction - but most of what I see and find is for Low-A and Triple-A only.

Here is why that matters.

The hit tool is a starting point, not a conclusion. A prospect hitting .320 in Double-A is interesting. A prospect hitting .320 in Double-A with a 38% Z-Contact% and a 42% O-Swing% is a red flag. The average tells you what happened. The discipline data tells you whether it’s real. PitchIQ gives you the second layer of the conversation that batting lines alone can never provide.

Swing decisions are the closest thing we have to a leading indicator. O-Swing% — how often a hitter chases pitches outside the zone — is one of the most predictive stats in baseball at any level. Hitters who chase at elite rates almost never sustain offensive production as they climb. Hitters who demonstrate elite zone discrimination at 19 years old in Low-A are sending a signal that most prospect coverage completely ignores. PitchIQ surfaces that signal every single day.

SwStr%, K%, and BB% are now exact at every level. These numbers are calculated directly from umpire call codes — the actual ball, strike, swing, and contact decisions recorded in real time — not from pitch coordinates. That means they carry zero measurement error. A 14% SwStr% at High-A is as reliable as a 14% SwStr% in the major leagues. For the first time, you can compare whiff rates across all four MiLB levels with full confidence in the accuracy of the number.

The transparency is built in. PitchIQ doesn’t hide its methodology. Every limitation is documented directly on the site — the difference between Statcast-quality data at Triple-A and Low-A versus the manually stringed coordinate data at Double-A and High-A, the adjustment ranges you should apply when reading Z-Contact% and O-Swing% at the lower levels, the research behind the accuracy estimates. You know exactly what you’re looking at and exactly how much to trust it.

This resource grows more valuable as the season goes on. Right now we have a month of data. By July we’ll have four months. By September the sample sizes will be large enough to make definitive statements about swing decisions at every level for every qualifying prospect in affiliated baseball. The players who show up at the top of the O-Swing% leaderboard in September — the ones who have demonstrated elite chase discipline across 400, 500, 600 pitches — are the players whose plate approach is genuinely real. Not a hot streak. Not a small sample. A documented, repeatable skill.

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Here is the Zone Classification Methodology & Accuracy pulled straight from the site.

Here is an example of what the top 10 looks like at Double-A — descending order of Z-Contact%:

This will update every morning at around 9 am with the previous days stats locked in and will be ever-changing and ever-growing by the day as the season goes on. You can search by organization or by player and filter by level, as well - to help you find and track “your guys.” Bookmark it and check it as often as often as you need. Make sure to read through the Methodology & Accuracy so you get a better understanding of the directional relationships at each level.

Below is the link to the URL where subscribers get first and full access to the site. Please consider subscribing to help support what we’re building here at ProspectTilt and to benefit from all the resources we have planned to share with you as the season progresses. Enjoy!

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LOW-A ARMS

Julio Mendez | LHP | Age 21 | Miami Marlins | Jupiter Hammerheads 5.0 IP · 2 H · 0 ER · 1 BB · 11 SO · 68 NP

Mendez is 21 years old out of Venezuela, repeating Low-A with Miami, and to great results. More interesting than his 1.29 ERA through three starts, however, is the stuff. Mendez sits low to mid-90s with his fastball touching 96 and it’s a decent two-plane four-seamer. The separator is the slider — roughly 2600 rpm with 16 inches of break to the glove side, offering an especially nasty offering to left-handed and right-handed batters alike. Last night he induced a 75% whiff on the pitch. Pair that with a cutter sitting roughly 8 mph harder at 88 mph that induced a 67% whiff, and you’ve got yourself a combination that allows the fastball to play up — which it did, inducing a 56% whiff of its own. Eleven strikeouts in five innings. The cutter-slider pairing is the engine here. Mendez is on a fast track to High-A at this rate.

Nolan Perry | RHP | Age 22 | Toronto Blue Jays | Dunedin Blue Jays 3.2 IP · 2 H · 2 R · 1 ER · 1 BB · 7 SO · 69 NP

Struck out the side in his first inning and ran into some flimsy trouble later on. Wasn’t hit particularly hard. Perry looks rather nasty in the early going — sat 94.2 with 18 inches of IVB, and there’s a legitimate velocity separation between the fastball and the slider. The slider’s low IVB, low horizontal break profile, and mid-80s velocity give it genuine downward and late-breaking characteristics. Pair that with a curveball sitting 80 mph with over 50 inches of drop and you’ve got an arsenal worth a serious look. Not to mention Perry easily passes the eye test. The Blue Jays need to be having the promotion conversation.

Reese Wissinger | RHP | Age 22 | Toronto Blue Jays | Dunedin Blue Jays 1.1 IP · 4 H · 2 R · 2 ER · 0 BB · 2 K · 29 NP

Came in for Perry and raised some eyebrows with the fastball metrics. Not blazing 99-101 gas — but the numbers were so good I thought the readings were a mistake. Averaged 93.9 on the fastball with an average of 21 inches of IVB. Averaged. A few pitches came in at 23 and 22 inches of ride, which is a head-scratching amount of vertical movement. The results didn’t back it up tonight but the stuff profile was worth the mention. Name to keep an eye on in the Dunedin bullpen.

LOW-A BATS

Edward Florentino | CF | Pittsburgh Pirates | Bradenton Marauders 4 AB · 2 R · 2 H · 1 2B · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 BB

Another day, another home run. Florentino has now gone deep back-to-back nights and looks like he isn’t missing any time getting back to the same level of pedigree and pop he showed last year. The homer was 106.4 off the bat. Florentino is looking every bit of the top 10-15 prospect status he catapulted himself to last year, and with more graduations taking place from prospect status, look for him to climb even further. The Pirates have something real in Bradenton and Florentino is the headliner. Greensboro soon?

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LOW-A ARMS

Clevari Tejada | RHP | Age 21 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Bradenton Marauders 5.0 IP · 1 H · 0 ER · 0 BB · 5 SO · 58 NP

Five shutout innings, zero walks, one hit, 58 pitches. Clean. Efficient. The Pirates don’t build pitching factories by accident and Tejada is an interesting name. This was a nice rebound outing for Tejada after giving up 3 earned runs and walking 9 in his last outing. If there is any takeaway, it’s good to see Tejada issue no free passes in this one and come away basically unscathed.

Allen Facundo | LHP | Age 23 | New York Yankees | Tampa Tarpons 5.0 IP · 4 H · 0 ER · 2 BB · 8 SO · 88 NP

Eight strikeouts in five innings of shutout ball for the Tarpons. Facundo has been one of the better arms in the Tampa rotation and that is now 3 straight dominant outings by the left hander. Eight punchouts against zero earned runs is a pitcher who was in attack mode from the first pitch. Not sure what more else there is to prove for Facundo at the Low-A level. It’s time to keep pushing him. Don’t bet against the Yankees pitching factory as of late. Facundo is just a small fish in a big pond there but he is still a part nonetheless.

Facundo battled injuries in 2024 and 2025 and was basically on the IL for the majority of the two years. He’s now 23, back at Low-A, and could be a quick riser through the system. The fastball and sinker are mid 90s, sitting anywhere from 94-96. He pairs that with arguably his best pitch which is his slider - a mid 80s high spin slider (~2800 rpm). Facundo can be a reliable bullpen piece down the line. Or someone who can fulfill a swingman type of role.

Hyun-Seok Jang | RHP | Age 22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Ontario Tower Buzzers 4.0 IP · 3 H · 0 ER · 0 BB · 4 SO · 50 NP

Jang was a name I was touting back in 2024 as someone with a hellacious fastball/changeup combination. He’s made two appearances so far this season while allowing only 5 hits and 1 walk in 9 innings - and he’s struck out 7. Jang features his heavy fastball to go with the changeup and curveball and I think the fastball will help cruise his way onto High-A so long as he stays healthy. Early indications are positive as he’s only walked one in 9 innings. That is an issue he’s ran into in the past. If he can get by that, I’m all in on Jang’s bounceback season.

LOW-A BATS

Edward Florentino | CF | Age 19 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Bradenton Marauders 3 AB · 2 R · 1 H · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 BB

Florentino came into the season surging after a breakout year and last night was a reminder of exactly what this profile looks like when healthy and locked in. One at-bat, one homer, one run scored, one walk — he didn’t make an out. He’s back rehabbing with Bradenton and should reach High-A fairly soon. Florentino is on a shortlist of being a top 15 prospect in all of baseball if he isn’t already. He did everything last year — hit for average, hit for power, stole bases. The true definition of a pop-up prospect after getting to A ball from the Dominican Summer League experience he had in 2024. The Pirates are loaded with offensive talent in the minors and Florentino is a part of their next wave.

Elian Peña | SS | Age 18 | New York Mets | St. Lucie Mets 3 AB · 1 R · 1 H · 2 BB

Peña is really forcing the Mets’ hand here. I figured they wanted to go slow with his development but they have a literal savant in the batter’s box. After showing out last year, he’s proving he’s more than capable of handling his own here in the early going at Low-A. He’s up to a .323 AVG and an .894 OPS and he is 18 years old for the remainder of the season — the youngest player in the Florida State League. And soon he may be the youngest or one of the youngest at High-A. The power isn’t showing up in spades, but if there is a player from his international class that can ascend to being a top 25 prospect when the power inevitably shows up, it is Peña.

PJ Morlando | DH | Age 21 season | Miami Marlins | Jupiter Hammerheads 3 AB · 1 R · 2 H · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 BB

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LOW-A ARMS

Kiefer Lord | RHP | Age 24 Season | Baltimore Orioles 4 IP · 1 H · 1 R · 1 ER · 1 BB · 11 SO

11 strikeouts in four innings. The Shorebirds won 3-2 and Lord was the reason it was ever in doubt for the opposition. The stuff is real — it’s been real — and nights like this are exactly why the conviction has never wavered. He’s looking a lot bigger than his 6’3 195 listing. Looks about 6’6 but camera angles can be deceiving. Tonight the command was there, the stuff was there, and the results followed. Started off with a heater that was swung through and the curveball looked especially nasty, throughout. Overall, just a fluid delivery without many moving parts — allowing Lord to repeat his delivery and tunnel effectively. Eleven punchouts in four innings isn’t a fluke. Chief Kief now has 32 strikeouts on the season in just 17 innings pitched. Unfortunately, Kief was removed in the 4th inning with an injury to his thumb, though I don’t think it’s that serious. Keep monitoring the name.

Alex Wallace | RHP | Age 22 Season | Tampa Bay Rays 6 IP · 6 H · 1 R · 1 ER · 0 BB · 8 SO

Zero walks in six innings. Eight strikeouts. One run allowed. Wallace has been one of the quieter arms in the TBR system this season and tonight was his best showcase yet. Six full innings with no free passes is a command profile that earns attention at any level. Listed at 6’8 230, he’s a bulldog on the mound and the Rays are just proving they’re finding late round talent in the draft. I mentioned Ethan Storm yesterday, who was drafted in the 13th round, who we’ve heard rave reviews about. Wallace is another late round arm taken in the 15th round who is exhibiting legitimate characteristics much in the same vain. I don’t see Wallace being long for Low-A at this rate.

Keyner Martinez | RHP | Age 21 Season | San Francisco Giants 5 IP · 1 H · 0 R · 0 ER · 1 BB · 7 SO

21-year-old in Low-A throwing five shutout innings on 62 pitches. One hit, one walk, seven strikeouts — and he was done at 62. 45 of them were for strikes. Martinez went up against a tough Ontario lineup featuring some of the Dodgers top prospects and shut them down. He’s a thick kid and he’s got quite a fluid delivery - I thought I was watching Santiago Suarez out there. This is a name I had jotted down but will be paying more attention to going forward. The command was truly special to watch. He was mixing in pitches and utilizing the heater when he needed. The ball zips out of his hand rather easily.

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Here is the HitTilt+ Top 21 as of April 20th, 2026:

A lot of these names, if not all, have been names we’ve written about and discussed in the Minor League Notables player breakdowns so far this season. The same is the case with TiltValue. Several names from the MY GUYS pitching series are now on the top 21 of the leaderboard and are without a doubt breakout arms.

Here is the TiltValue Top 21 as of April 20th, 2026:

The links to access these websites & dashboard leaderboards are below. And if you haven’t subscribed and supported yet, please consider doing so as you’ll get access to these leaderboards, the daily/weekly notable player breakdowns & analysis, rankings, and much more. Enjoy!

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Tyler Bremner | RHP | Age 22 Season | Los Angeles Angels 5.0 IP / 4 H / 1 ER / 0 BB / 10 K / 69 NP

0.77 ERA on the season. Five innings, one run, zero walks, ten strikeouts on 69 pitches in a Tri-City win over Hillsboro. Ten strikeouts on 69 pitches is the number that stops you — that is an elite strikeout-to-pitch ratio from a 22-year-old arm doing something very real at this level. Zero walks paired with ten strikeouts is not a profile that is surviving by accident. The command is ahead of the level, the stuff is missing bats at a rate that demands attention, and the 0.77 ERA through multiple starts is the proof that Saturday was not an outlier.

Michael Lombardi | RHP | Age 22 Season | Kansas City Royals 4.0 IP / 3 H / 0 ER / 0 BB / 11 K / 75 NP

2.61 ERA on the season. Four innings, zero runs, zero walks, eleven strikeouts on 75 pitches in a Columbia win over Charleston. Eleven strikeouts without issuing a walk is a performance line that demands to be written about regardless of whether the name is on anyone’s radar. That is a pitcher who had complete command of every sequence and finished hitters with regularity. Zero walks in four innings and eleven punch-outs is not Low-A noise — that is a pitcher operating at a different level from the competition. Michael Lombardi is a name worth knowing - Fastball is low-to-mid 90s and this is an arm I can see having a velocity uptick as he carries on through pro-ball.

Landon Harmon | RHP | Age 19 Season | Washington Nationals 5.0 IP / 2 H / 0 ER / 0 BB / 5 K / 56 NP

0.87 ERA on the season. Five innings, zero runs, zero walks, five strikeouts in a Fredericksburg win. Another 19-year-old arm in the Fredericksburg rotation doing legitimate damage — zero walks in five innings from a teenager in Low-A is a command profile that doesn’t grow on trees. The Nationals have something real building in Fredericksburg on the pitching side and Harmon is part of it.

Zach Royse | RHP | Age 22 Season | Atlanta Braves 5.2 IP / 2 H / 0 ER / 3 BB / 5 K / 82 NP

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LOW-A ARMS

Miguel Sime Jr. | RHP | Age 19 Season | Washington Nationals 4.0 IP / 0 H / 0 ER / 1 BB / 9 K / 56 NP

Zero hits. Zero runs. Nine strikeouts. Four innings on 56 pitches. The biggest number for me is the one walk. Miguel Sime Jr. is 19 years old and touching 101 mph and last night he was completely untouchable. The Fredericksburg lineup couldn’t do anything with him — not a hit, not a run, barely a hard swing — and nine strikeouts in four innings from a teenager throwing that kind of heat with that kind of efficiency is a performance that belongs in a completely different conversation from where this name currently lives in the industry. This comes after an outing in which he had absolutely zero command of his fastball and we had to watch the poor kid try and work backwards, upside down, downside up, anything — to get a called strike or a swinging strike. Great to see him make tweaks and come out for this outing with something to prove. Extreme conviction and it just grew with this outing. My biggest takeaway is the bounce back from his previous outing and coming out and showing command of his fastball and slider in this one. It’s okay to be excited with this profile but just remember this will be a project. Truth is however, the Nationals have something terrifying in Fredericksburg.

Seth Hernandez | RHP | Age 20 Season | Pittsburgh Pirates 5.0 IP / 0 H / 0 ER / 2 BB / 8 K / 67 NP

You know that one kid in school who probably already absorbed a college course load by the time they were in early high school? That’s Seth Hernandez. Seth Hernandez is Doogie Howser. The Pirates should just award him with his M.D. and let the savant get to practicing surgery. Let’s not waste time training on spaghetti models in Low-A.

In his last 11 innings of work — 1 hit allowed, 2 walks, 20 strikeouts. That is not a Low-A pitcher dominating Low-A hitters. That is a pitcher who has already run out of things to prove at this level and is waiting for the Pirates to notice.

The four-seamer at 97.0 mph average — touching 100 — with 17 inches of IVB and 14 inches of armside run is the foundation and it is a legitimate one. Sixty-three percent of his pitches last night were this pitch and hitters produced an avg EV of 87.9 against it with a max EV allowed of 104.9 on the entire outing — one hard-hit ball in five innings of 97-100 mph gas. The 60% zone rate paired with a 57% in-zone swing rate tells you hitters know it’s coming and still can’t do anything meaningful when it arrives.

The changeup at 82.6 mph with 29 inches of drop and 15 inches of armside run is the separator. Thrown 16% of the time and posted a 45% CSW on 11 pitches — nearly half the changeups thrown generated either a called strike or a whiff.

The cutter at 87.8 mph with 32 inches of drop and 12 inches of glove-side break gives him a third shape that cuts back against right-handed hitters — it posted a 33% CSW on nine pitches and zero hard contact allowed. The curveball at 79.1 mph with 54 inches of drop is the fourth weapon that resets eye levels when he needs to change speeds entirely.

Four pitches. All four generating weak contact or misses. 0.75 ERA. One hit in his last eleven innings. The Pirates need to stop scheduling this kid for Low-A starts and start scheduling him for flights to Greensboro. Seth Hernandez needs to be in High-A. He needed to be in High-A three starts ago.

Patrick Galle | RHP | St. Louis Cardinals | Palm Beach Cardinals 1.0 IP / 0 H / 0 ER / 0 BB / 3 K / 17 NP

The four-seamer at 97.5 mph average — touching 98.5 — with 19 inches of IVB and 4 inches of armside run is a legitimate fastball. Not a show-me pitch, not a fringe offering — a genuine 97-98 mph four-seamer with carry and life that generated a 67% CSW on nine pitches in one inning of work. Zero hard contact allowed against it. When you’re sitting 97-98 with that kind of vertical movement from a right-handed arm, that is a fastball that plays at any level.

The cutter at 88.4 mph with 27 inches of drop and 7 inches of glove-side break is a true cut fastball — tight movement, controlled shape, hard enough that it doesn’t give hitters time to sit on the separation from the four-seamer. A 9 mph gap between the fastball and the cutter with that compact glove-side cut creates a real decision problem when the four-seamer is running the other way. It generated a 100% CSW on its two competitive pitches — small sample, but the pitch isn’t getting barreled.

Galle is a pen arm in its truest form. Hard fastball with ride as his calling card. Can he design a better slider and/or changeup to go with it? That’ll be the question. But the arm is intriguing and the fastball is live.

Cory Lewis | RHP | Age 25 Season | Minnesota Twins 0.1 IP / 2 H / 2 ER / 2 BB / 0 K / 23 NP (Rehab Debut)

Last night was a rehab debut — a short outing by design that got cut shorter by the results — so I’m going to put the line aside entirely and talk about what the pitch data says, because the pitch data is the reason this profile is worth writing about.

Cory Lewis is a knuckleballer. Historically, that is a designation that narrows the margin for success to a sliver. But I want to be precise about what kind of knuckleballer he is, because the distinction matters enormously.

Start with the fastball. 90.4 mph average with 19 inches of IVB and 2169 spin. 2169 rpm at 90 mph with 19 inches of induced vertical break means the fastball is genuinely riding through the zone with elite carry for a pitch at that velocity. This is not a knuckleball-primary arm throwing a fringe fastball to fill counts. This is a pitcher with a legitimate riding four-seamer that can play as a swing-and-miss offering in its own right. The armside run give it additional life and the total drop tells you the ball is staying up in the zone.

Now the knuckleball. 84.5 mph average with 161 spin. That spin number is the story. Elite knuckleballs generally sit in the 25-50 rpm range — a pitch so devoid of spin it has no reliable movement plane and becomes genuinely unpredictable. 161 rpm is like a high blood pressure reading. Higher than that elite range but still dramatically lower than any other pitch in his arsenal, and the 6 mph separation from the fastball with completely different movement characteristics — 6 inches of IVB, 4 inches of horizontal movement — creates a presentation problem that most hitters simply aren’t equipped to solve. The hard knuckleball at 84-85 mph paired with a riding four-seamer at 90 is a combination that requires hitters to simultaneously process two different movement planes at two different velocities from the same arm slot. That is not a normal equation. The 13% CSW on the knuckleball is the one number worth monitoring — it generated only one whiff on eight pitches last night and zero called strikes on two competitive looks — but this was a rehab debut against a lineup that may have been sitting on the knuckler specifically. The pitch profile makes conceptual sense even if last night’s results didn’t reflect it. Dickey made the hard knuckler work, and it led him to a Cy Young. I’m not making any comps but there are only a handful of knuckleballers to work with. Especially ones who throw one this hard with barely any spin.

I’ve written endlessly about Cory Lewis over the years and here is where I’m at. The success or failure of this profile lives entirely on whether the knuckleball can operate as a legitimate swing-and-miss offering against Triple-A competition. The riding four-seamer is a genuine asset — 90 mph with 2169 spin and 19 inches of IVB is a pitch that generates weak contact and misses bats even without the knuckleball working. But the knuckleball is the separator. If it plays — if the 161 spin produces enough unpredictability to create real swing decisions when paired with the fastball — then Cory Lewis has a profile that is genuinely difficult to game plan against because nothing in the standard scouting vocabulary applies to it. If the knuckleball gets squared up at this velocity, the four-seamer becomes easier to isolate and the profile loses its central premise. One rehab inning tells us nothing definitive. I’m still keeping an eye on Cory Lewis.

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LOW-A ARMS

Spencer Strider | RHP | Atlanta Braves | Rome Emperors (Rehab Assignment) 4.1 IP / 1 H / 0 ER / 2 BB / 3 K / 50 NP

Strider is back on a mound and that is the only headline that matters. Three scoreless rehab innings, two walks, three strikeouts, 50 pitches. The results are secondary to the event — Strider working his way back and getting through it cleanly is the number the Braves care about. If it counts, Strider was around 95-97 in the first inning, although the fastball command was a bit wonky after the 2nd. Tonight was a step in the right direction, however.

Nolan Perry | RHP | Toronto Blue Jays | Dunedin Blue Jays 5.0 IP / 1 H / 0 ER / 0 BB / 12 K / 60 NP

Twelve strikeouts. Zero walks. One hit. Five innings. Sixty pitches. That is one of the most dominant individual pitching performances of the entire season at any level and it came from a name that most people aren’t talking about yet in the Blue Jays system. Maybe he should piggyback Jose Berrios more often. Berrios got rocked because that’s what Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde does. Nolan Perry, however - Twelve strikeouts on 60 pitches means Perry was retiring hitters in two pitches and finishing them on three. Zero walks paired with twelve strikeouts is a pitcher operating with complete command of every pitch in his arsenal. The Blue Jays need to be talking about promotion because all work and no promotion makes Perry a dull boy. That performance demands it.

Tyler Boudreau | RHP | New York Yankees | Tampa Tarpons 5.0 IP / 3 H / 2 ER / 2 BB / 6 K / 70 NP

We’ve written up Boudreau on several occasions now this season and he was a part of the MY GUYS series in which I went over 18 pitching prospects to target outside consensus top 100s.

2.89 ERA on the season and another quality start from Boudreau who keeps showing up in the Tampa box score with results that validate the heavy conviction. Six strikeouts, two runs, five innings. The fastball profile with 19-plus inches of IVB at 94 mph is the thing that makes this arm work and the results keep backing it up. The Yankees have something real in Tampa.

LOW-A BATS

Matthew Ferrara | SS | Philadelphia Phillies | Clearwater Threshers 4 AB / 3 R / 4 H / 2 2B / 1 HR / 3 RBI

4-for-4 with two doubles, a homer, three RBI, and three runs scored. Let me tell you something about Matthew Ferrara before I get into the line — 9th round pick out of Toms River High School East in New Jersey. Not the Todd Frazier one, but close enough. Signed for an overslot $600,000 — that’s fourth to fifth round money in a ninth round slot. When an organization writes a check that size for a prep bat in that round, they are telling you something about what they think they saw. Ferrara is 18 years old and the Phillies gave him an aggressive assignment straight to Low-A. Last night was validation of everything that went into that decision. Not sure he sticks around at short full-time as he does have the speed and athleticism to play center down the line. Four hits in four at-bats including two doubles and a home run from an 18-year-old in his first full-season assignment is not supposed to happen this early. The Phillies saw something before the draft and after. Consider this the first public receipt.

Eli Willits | 2B | Washington Nationals | Fredericksburg Nationals 5 AB / 1 R / 1 H / 1 HR / 1 RBI

The first overall pick is quietly putting the baseball world on notice. Willits hit an opposite field home run last night — a day after he went inside the park. Back-to-back games with a home run, two completely different shapes of power, and a player who plays a strong shortstop and is now producing with the bat at the professional level. The approach was always there. The zone recognition was always there. Now the power is showing up in back-to-back games in completely different directions and that is not something you can manufacture. There is a lot of upside here. The development arc is pointing in exactly the right direction and the baseball world is starting to take notice.

Yeremy Cabrera | CF | Washington Nationals | Fredericksburg Nationals 4 AB / 2 R / 2 H / 1 2B / 1 HR / 2 RBI / 1 SB

Three homers in his last six games. A stolen base tonight to go with the homer and the double. I covered Cabrera in my International Series Part 2 back in March of 2024 — signed for $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic, now in Washington’s system at 20 years old, firmly making himself part of the conversation in D.C. over the next few years.

The glove can get him to the big leagues alone even if he manages to hit .240 with some decent pop. We’ve seen it before — Juan Lagares types who make it work with the leather and give you just enough with the bat. But Cabrera might just be a bigger hitting version of Lagares with more power to go with it, and right now the bat is showing up in ways that expand the ceiling considerably. Three home runs in six games from a player who signed for ten thousand dollars is not something you see very often. He deserves every bit of this. It’s a testament to the work ethic that he’s here and producing at this level. Love everything about this story.

Juneiker Caceres | RF | Cleveland Guardians | Hill City Howlers 5 AB / 2 R / 3 H / 1 HR / 4 RBI / 1 BB

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LOW-A ARMS

Gage Wood | RHP | Philadelphia Phillies | Clearwater Threshers 4.0 IP / 1 H / 0 ER / 3 BB / 4 K / 58 NP

0.79 ERA on the season. Four innings, one hit, zero runs, and a stuff profile that is considerably more interesting than the surface numbers suggest once you look at what the four-seamer is actually doing to hitters.

The fastball is the foundation and it’s a legitimate one. 95.6 mph average with 17 inches of IVB and 7 inches of arm-side run — from a right-handed arm that 64% of the time is throwing this pitch, hitters are dealing with a four-seamer that is rising through the zone at a plane that Low-A lineups are not equipped to handle when the command is working. The avg EV against the four-seamer was 68.5 — that is a number that stops you in your tracks. Hitters aren’t squaring this pitch up. They’re getting on top of it, rolling over it, or swinging under it entirely. When you have 17 inches of IVB at 95-plus and hitters are producing a 68.5 avg EV against it, the pitch is playing significantly above its already impressive raw numbers.

The curveball at 81.3 mph is the separator. Sixty-two inches of drop with 11 inches of glove-side break — a true 12-to-6 shape with sharp two-plane movement that changes the hitter’s eye level completely after back-to-back four-seamer sequences. It posted a 30% CSW and the 20% called strike rate tells you hitters are identifying it late enough to take it but not early enough to lay off entirely. A curveball with that much drop from a pitcher who can also sit 95-plus with 17 inches of IVB is a devastating combination when the tunnel is right.

The slider at 86.3 mph with 26 inches of glove-side break gives him a third shape — harder and with more horizontal movement than the curveball, different enough that hitters can’t sit on either breaking ball. The changeup at 88.3 mph with 7 inches of IVB and 14 inches of arm-side run rounds out a four-pitch arsenal that has something for every count and every handedness.

Max EV against tonight was 102.0 — that was the one ball that got hit hard. Everything else was weak contact or swings and misses. Three walks are the developmental variable worth monitoring as the season progresses. But a 0.79 ERA and a four-seamer producing a 68.5 avg EV against tells you there is something very real happening in Clearwater. The Phillies have an arm worth watching closely.

Rubén Menes | RHP | St. Louis Cardinals | Palm Beach Cardinals 3.0 IP / 1 H / 0 ER / 0 BB / 5 K / 41 NP

Zero walks. Five strikeouts. Three innings on 41 pitches. And a max EV against of 89.3 that tells you not a single hitter did anything meaningful with the pitches Menes threw tonight.

Start with the four-seamer. 95.0 mph average with 19 inches of IVB and 12 inches of arm-side run — and a 47% CSW rate on 15 pitches. Nearly half the four-seamers thrown tonight generated either a called strike or a swing and miss. That is an elite CSW for any pitch at any level and the 40% zone rate paired with a 67% in-zone swing rate tells you hitters are respecting the fastball enough to swing at nearly everything in the strike zone. The avg EV against the four-seamer was 89.3 — the hardest ball hit tonight — and that was the only hard contact he allowed across the entire outing.

The changeup at 84.7 mph is where this profile gets genuinely interesting. Thirty-one inches of arm-side run with 11 inches of IVB — a pitch that starts off the four-seamer tunnel and then dives away from right-handed hitters at a rate that makes the swing decision nearly impossible when the fastball and changeup are sequenced correctly. It posted a 42% CSW on 12 pitches and the avg EV against was 66.4 — that is not a pitch that is getting barreled. That is a pitch that is generating weak swings from hitters who are timing 95 and getting something completely different.

The cutter at 87.4 mph with 24 inches of drop and 9 inches of glove-side break adds a third shape that cuts back against right-handed hitters — different arm-side direction than the four-seamer and changeup, different velocity than the curveball. The 43% CSW on the cutter is the number that separates a pitcher with three genuine weapons from a pitcher with one good pitch and two fillers. Menes has three genuine weapons.

Zero runs. Zero walks. Three innings. 41 pitches. The Cardinals have something worth knowing about in Palm Beach and his name is Rubén Menes.

James Ellwanger | RHP | Minnesota Twins | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels 4.2 IP / 0 H / 0 ER / 3 BB / 6 K / 67 NP

No hits. Zero runs. 4.2 innings. Six strikeouts. And a 0.00 ERA on the season that is becoming impossible to dismiss as a small sample story.

The curveball is the pitch that defines this profile and the data makes clear exactly why. 80.6 mph with 55 inches of drop and 13 inches of glove-side break — a true power curve with an exceptional drop rate that gives it two-plane break simultaneously. It was thrown 36% of the time tonight and posted a 46% CSW on 24 pitches. Forty-six percent CSW on a breaking ball in Low-A is a pitch that hitters have no answer for. The 42% whiff rate on swings tells you the overwhelming result when a hitter commits to this pitch is a miss, not a barrel.

The four-seamer at 95.2 mph average — max 97.4 — with 16 inches of IVB and 5 inches of arm-side run is the pitch that makes the curveball work. When you can sit 95-plus with 16 inches of rise and then follow it with a curveball dropping 55 inches the other direction, the hitter’s plane of vision has to cover the entire zone from top to bottom simultaneously. That’s an equation most Low-A hitters cannot solve, and the avg EV of 60.8 against the four-seamer tonight tells you they aren’t squaring it up when they try.

The cutter at 91.5 mph with 10 inches of IVB and 32 inches of drop gives him a third pitch that plays off both the four-seamer and the curveball — harder than the curve, with more vertical drop than the four-seamer, different movement plane than both. It posted a 38% CSW. The changeup at 91.5 mph sits at the same velocity as the cutter, which creates its own sequencing problems — two pitches at identical velocities moving in completely different directions is a nightmare to track in real time.

Three free passes in 4.2 innings on 67 pitches is a pitcher working through command moments, not a pitcher who can’t find the zone. The stuff profile at this level is overwhelming. If the walk rate tightens even slightly as the season progresses, this is a name that will be generating significant noise league-wide by midseason. Heavy conviction and it keeps building.

Kendry Chourio | RHP | Kansas City Royals | Columbia Fireflies 5.0 IP / 3 H / 0 ER / 1 BB / 5 K / 76 NP

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LOW-A ARMS

Reed Moring | RHP | Minnesota Twins | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels 5.0 IP / 6 H / 0 ER / 1 BB / 6 K / 70 NP

Five innings. Zero runs. Six strikeouts. One walk. And a max exit velocity against of 114.3 that tells you the contact was real tonight — but the damage wasn’t. Not a shock that the 114.3 mph hit was none other than Bryce Rainer. I’ll make an exception here.

Moring has an interesting arsenal and let me tell you why it matters. The four-seamer sits 92.8 mph with 19 inches of induced vertical break and 11 inches of armside run. The IVB is the thing. Nineteen inches of rise on a 92 mph fastball means this pitch is playing significantly above its velocity reading — hitters are timing 92 and the ball is arriving at a completely different plane than their bat path expects. The avg EV against the four-seamer tonight was 103.0, which looks alarming on the surface until you realize that’s weak contact being forced upward rather than hard contact being driven into gaps. That’s what elite IVB does. It doesn’t prevent contact — it dictates the shape of it.

The slider is the separator. 84.8 mph, 33 inches of drop and a genuine breaking ball offering that posted a 50% CSW rate tonight and held hitters to .180 avg EV against. Fifty percent CSW. That pitch is not getting hit. The cutter at 85.7 with 16 inches of IVB and a 45% CSW adds a third distinct shape, and the curveball sitting 80.5 with 50 inches of drop is the eye-level changer he reaches for when he needs to reset a hitter’s timing entirely. Six pitches. Five of them with legitimate whiff potential. The sinker is the one pitch still finding its role — zero whiffs on five pitches tonight — but it tunnels off the four-seamer at near-identical velocity with different movement profile, and that has long-term value against lefties that I don’t want to dismiss.

Now here’s the conversation that actually matters. What happens when Moring adds velocity? We are never ruling out velocity gains on a young arm. Never. I said it before the season and I’ll say it here again — if this profile gets to 94-95 mph with the same 19 inches of IVB, the slider becomes a weapon at every level of the system and the development conversation shifts from “interesting arm to track” to something considerably more serious. The command is the variable to watch — 40% zone rate on the four-seamer tonight is the one number worth monitoring as he climbs. But the profile is real. The results are real.

Jose Chirinos | RHP | New York Mets | St. Lucie Mets 5.0 IP / 3 H / 0 ER / 0 BB / 5 K / 65 NP

Zero walks. Five strikeouts. Zero runs across five innings and St. Lucie wins 2-0. Chirinos operated with a lower-90s fastball paired with a sinker that gives him two distinct movement profiles at near-identical velocities — already a difficult equation for hitters to solve — and then layered in a changeup with genuine late fade and a tight slider that darts out of the zone at the last possible moment. That’s four pitches with four different shapes and four different jobs. He was throwing all of them for strikes tonight.

The command is the developmental question and I want to be honest about that because it’s a real one. When Chirinos is locating, he’s a different pitcher entirely than when he’s nibbling at the edges and falling behind. Tonight was a locating night — and zero walks in five innings against a Low-A lineup is a pitcher executing a plan, not surviving one. The Mets have at minimum a legitimate reliever or swing-man option in this profile. And if the command holds at the level it showed tonight, the conversation grows into something more interesting. There’s a path to Double-A at some point this season. The stuff is already there. The results are starting to match it.

Aidan Cremarosa | RHP | Tampa Bay Rays | Charleston River Dogs 5.0 IP / 6 H / 3 ER / 0 BB / 9 K / 76 NP

Nine strikeouts. Zero walks. Three runs allowed. And the number I can’t stop staring at — 21 strikeouts to zero walks across 10 innings on the season. That ratio doesn’t happen by accident. That’s a pitcher with a plan every single time he steps on the rubber, and the plan keeps working.

The velocity profile is still being assembled on my end but what I can tell you is the low-70s curveball is the pitch that’s building the most conviction in this profile right now. It’s loopy — closer to a slurve in shape than a true power curve — with enough sweep and enough drop simultaneously that hitters are processing two pieces of information at once and acting correctly on neither. That kind of breaking ball works differently than a power curve does. Hitters aren’t late on it. They’re early. And a hitter who commits early to a pitch breaking in two directions at once is already beat before the ball reaches the plate.

The three runs tonight are the blemish but the zero walks are the story. Every time. Cremarosa is a control pitcher with a breaking ball that’s giving Low-A lineups real problems and the 21-to-zero strikeout-to-walk ratio says the approach is not a fluke. The intrigue keeps building every time he takes the mound. Don’t sleep on it.

Sean Hermann | RHP | Seattle Mariners | Inland Empire 66ers 4.0 IP / 4 H / 0 ER / 2 BB / 5 K / 72 NP

Nine scoreless innings through two starts. The walks are there — he’s issued a few in both outings — but the damage isn’t following them and that’s the distinction worth making. When the bases get jammed Hermann is making pitches. When hitters have real opportunities to do damage, the ball isn’t finding the barrel. That’s a skill that doesn’t show up in the walk column but absolutely shows up in the ERA.

Two starts is a small sample and I’m not going to overreact to it. But nine scoreless innings in Low-A with the composure to pitch out of traffic is worth filing away. Keeping a close eye as he continues to navigate the level.

LOW-A BATS

Jhonny Level | SS | San Francisco Giants | San Jose Giants 4 AB / 1 R / 1 H / 1 HR / 1 RBI / 1 BB

First pitch of the game. Gone. Third homer of the season. Jhonny Level is not long for Low-A and at this point an argument can be made that he’s one of the best — if not the top — middle infield prospect in the Giants system. The Giants need to make a decision. The bat has already made it for them.

Bryce Rainer | SS | Detroit Tigers | Lakeland Flying Tigers 5 AB / 0 R / 2 H / 1 2B / 0 HR / 0 RBI

114.3 mph scorcher off of Reed Moring. A scorching double to center that traveled 372 feet like a bullet. Let me sit with that for a second — 372 feet on a line drive double is not a normal event. That is not a normal exit velocity at any level, let alone a 20-year-old in Low-A. The power output and the underlying metrics here are not normal for just about anyone. Rainer has been hitting the ball hard all season. The surface results haven’t caught up yet and that’s a luck conversation, not a talent conversation.

The caveat is real and I’m going to name it plainly — the strikeouts need to come down. A bat this electric cannot afford to be relegated to temporary bouts of power surrounded by more sustained bouts of swing and miss. That’s not a profile, that’s a tease. But the tools that produced 114.3 on Reed Moring tonight are not going anywhere. The arrow is pointing straight up on Bryce Rainer. Write it down.

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JT Quinn (High-A) — Baltimore Orioles

Quinn was teammates with Brian Curley at Georgia last year as they were arguably the co-aces of the staff. Quinn had the lowest ERA on the staff of any starting pitcher at 2.75 and struck out 49 batters in 36 innings while holding batters to a .184 average against. Curley was taken in the 3rd round with the 92nd pick. And Quinn was taken 69th overall — both lending a hand in giving Georgia the 7th seed heading into the College Baseball World Series.

Curley was featured in Part 1 of this series and I just wanted to lay out some background as to why I’m so high on these two arms. There is pedigree here for both of these arms. But this is about Quinn. Quinn has gotten off to a hot start this season for the High-A Orioles affiliate which also features Joseph Dzierwa (I’d include him in this series but at this point the helium is about to pop and this is for lesser heralded names — I wrote about him after his first start but the prospect world is starting to take notice).

In his first start, Quinn went 4.1IP 3H 1ER 2BB 6K. He followed that up with 4.2IP 2H 0ER 0BB 10K. Quinn has a power heater and is touching upper 90s and it’s only a matter of time until he touches triple digits and everybody’s heads light on fire as a result. He pairs that with a slider, a high-spin curve, and a changeup that he’s still trying to master. He has four pitches in his arsenal led by the Fastball and Curve which look to be plus offerings — and again, it’s only a matter of time until the changeup and slider become legitimate plus offerings as well. The only variable here is command. It was an encouraging sign in his last outing in which he gave up just 2 hits and walked none — we’ll need to see more zeroes in the walk column going forward to know if he’s truly turned a corner and if Baltimore’s newly founded pitching lab has cured any ailments in this department. Regardless, he is a name to monitor, even own at this point. Several more starts like his last one and the cost will go up.

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TILTVALUE TOP 12 - April 13th, 2026

HITTILT+ TOP 12 - April 13th, 2026

These are just previews of the site and once you click on the following links, you’ll be able to filter based on whatever stat or data point you want. You’ll also be able to search by player in the search box. There are a few more fun categories to click on as well, such as “Sweet Spot” and “Home Run Zone” for HitTilt+. Remember, we’re still early on in the season so these leaderboards are by no means a final product — it’ll be fun to see who stays atop throughout the season. So make sure to subscribe and you’ll have access to these all season long. Here are the links as promised. Enjoy!

TILTVALUE LEADERBOARD

HITTILT+ LEADERBOARD

LOW-A ARMS

Devin Futrell | LHP | Boston Red Sox | Salem Ridge Yaks 5.0 IP / 0 H / 0 ER / 1 BB / 4 K / 52 NP

No-hit through five innings on 52 pitches in a 16-3 Ridge Yaks blowout over the Warbirds. Let’s sit with that pitch count for a second — 52 pitches to get through five innings without allowing a hit is not a guy grinding through traffic. That’s a left-hander with a plan, the stuff to execute it, and hitters who never had a chance to get comfortable. Futrell is the kind of arm that doesn’t announce himself with a radar gun reading that makes you drop your phone. He announces himself with results, and the results keep coming.

The profile here is built around deception, angle, and a four-pitch mix that keeps hitters from sitting on anything. As a left-hander working out of an extension-heavy delivery, the ball gets on right-handed hitters faster than they expect and the separation between his offerings makes sequencing genuinely difficult. The fastball has enough life to get through a Low-A lineup when he’s locating it, and the secondary stuff — a curve and a changeup that both have legitimate shape — gives him weapons on both sides of the plate against both handedness. He’s not overpowering anyone. He’s outsmarting them, and at Low-A that is a different and frankly more sustainable skill.

Dylan Brown is the name I keep coming back to in the Boston Low-A system and he’s a lock for My Guys Part 2 or 3. But don’t sleep on what Futrell is doing in Salem. The Ridge Yaks have a left-handed pipeline that is going to be worth tracking all season and Futrell is part of that conversation. He’ll be forcing his hand at a promotion to High-A soon enough

Sheng-En Lin | RHP | Cincinnati Reds | Daytona Tortugas 5.0 IP / 0 H / 0 ER / 2 BB / 5 K / 71 NP

It looks like Sheng-En Lin is going to be pitching full time in 2026 & stop me if you’ve heard this one — a pitcher goes five innings without allowing a hit, strikes out five, and the team wins 14-0. You’ve heard it tonight from Futrell too. Two no-hit outings through five innings on the same Low-A slate. The level is getting cooked.

But Lin is doing something worth examining independently of the blowout context. A 14-0 final can make a pitching line look better than it is because you assume the opponent folded. That’s not what happened here. Lin was dominant from the first pitch — two walks were the only traffic he created and the Tortugas offense just happened to also be putting up 14 runs behind him. The no-hitter through five is about Lin, not the score. He was dealing.

2.84 ERA on the season. The Reds have been quietly developing pitching at every level of their system and Lin is one of the names that deserves to be in that conversation. Especially if his focus is entirely on pitching this season. The command will be something to watch.

LOW-A BATS

JoJo Parker | SS | Toronto Blue Jays | Dunedin Blue Jays 4 AB / 2 R / 3 H / 1 2B / 4 RBI / 1 BB

The 8th overall pick in the 2025 draft goes 3-for-4 with four RBI, two runs scored, and a walk in a 13-6 Dunedin blowout over St. Lucie. Four runs batted in from the leadoff spot. Let me say that again — JoJo Parker was batting leadoff and drove in four runs. The contact tool that made him a consensus top-10 pick showed up tonight in a way that should generate real noise in the prospect community, and if it doesn’t, that’s on the evaluators who aren’t watching Florida State League games in April. I am. And I’m writing this down.

The extra base hit — a double — alongside three singles tells you the bat-to-ball is not selective. He’s making hard contact to multiple parts of the field and the RBI total reflects a hitter who is doing damage with runners on base, not just piling up empty contact. The walk caps off a night where Parker saw the ball well from the first inning to the last. This is the best individual performance from any top 2025 draft pick at the Low-A level tonight and it’s not particularly close. The Blue Jays knew what they were doing at pick 8. I want to give a shoutout to Blaine Bullard as well who has legitimate underlying metrics and is outperforming his draft stock. He looks like another piece in the Jays system that can climb the ranks with JoJo Parker.

Daniel Pierce | SS | Tampa Bay Rays | Charleston River Dogs 4 AB / 1 R / 2 H / 1 2B / 2 RBI / 1 BB

No home runs tonight but the professional nature of this line is what I keep coming back to. After going nuclear two nights ago — two home runs, four RBI, the kind of night that announces a prospect to anyone paying attention — Pierce came back and delivered something arguably more important: a process night. Double. Two RBI. A walk. He didn’t chase the big moment. He took what the game gave him and made it count.

That’s the thing about this 14th overall pick. The power was always going to show up — you don’t go in the top 15 of a draft without present tools that back the selection — but what makes a prospect a future big leaguer is whether the approach holds up when the stuff doesn’t all come together at once. Tonight it held up. .355 AVG on the season. The floor on this profile keeps rising and the Rays are going to have a decision to make about how long they keep him in Low-A.

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LOW-A ARMS

Isaac Ayon | RHP | Ontario Tower Buzzers (LAD) 4.0 IP. 2H. 0ER. 0BB. 4K. 43 pitches. Part of a combined shutout in Ontario’s 2-0 win over the 66ers. Zero walks through four. An 18th rounder in the 2024 draft out of Oregon, Ayon is 6’4 and has a 4-seamer, sinker, and two variations of sliders — he can sweep it and also tighten it up and throw a bullet-slider. Already coming back from Tommy John over a year ago, Ayon can dial it up to the mid to upper 90s and I think there’s more in the tank here. The slider looked really good last night and had hitters off balance. I’m keeping my eye on this one and I know the Dodgers may be a bit slow with him as he’s just coming back.

Jarrette Bonet | RHP | Wilson Warbirds (MIL) 5.0 IP. 3H. 0ER. 2BB. 5K. 67 pitches. 1.29 ERA. Five innings of shutout ball. Clean, efficient, no damage done. Bonet is quietly building a case in the Milwaukee system. The line doesn’t need to be flashy — and he’s getting it done. To me, this is an essential part of a farm system — the non-flashy guys who get it done who have the ability to potentially be legitimate relief arms down the line. Maybe there’s more? Bonet can reach the mid 90s and I’m sure he’ll sit there with his heater as time goes on. He’s added a splitter to go with a solid slider. He has a unique mix and he’s getting batters out at the Low-A level with above-average command. It’s also Milwaukee, so expect the Brewers to milk out every ounce of juice they have in this carton.

Ovis Portes | RHP | Daytona Tortugas (CIN) 5.0 IP. 3H. 2ER. 0BB. 8K. 73 pitches. Eight strikeouts, zero walks through five. The command and the swing-and-miss were in the same room tonight. Daytona won 8-4. Another night and seemingly another name to know in the Cincinnati system. The night before we went over Edgar Colon who caught my eye with his mid 90s fastball that topped 98+. Tonight, we’re going over Ovis Portes who averaged 96.1 with 18 inches of ride. Topped 98.6. They’re growing these types on trees. Don’t get me wrong, though — with his current pitch mix, Portes is destined to be a bullpen arm and if he as any more added gains will determine whether or not how prominent of a role he’ll eventually have. We’re still a long ways away but it’s exciting in Cincinnati.

Cam Tilly | RHP | St. Lucie Mets (NYM) 3.1 IP. 5H. 3ER. 2BB. 5K. 66 pitches. Got hit. Gave up a homer. Happens. The profile that made me fall in love with this arm doesn’t change because of one bad outing. I sincerely believe there is untapped velocity here with Tilly and by next season we’ll be seeing his fastball average what he’s topping now. Eric Jagers & company will be the first to acknowledge and account for that.

Miguel Sime Jr. | RHP | Fredericksburg Nationals (WAS) 2.0 IP. 1H. 2ER. 6BB. 3K. 52 pitches. Six walks in two innings from an 18-year-old who lit the prospect world on fire after his first start by throwing triple digits regularly. Well, last night he had absolutely no command of his fastball - left it up high and couldn’t get a chase or a called strike. The first inning was a disaster. I didn’t think he’d make it out of the first but he got the 2nd inning and he started it off with two sliders. If there is any takeaway here it’s that he had the wherewithal to try and work backwards knowing he didn’t have command of his heater. On a 3-2 count against the first batter in the 2nd inning, Sime Jr. through a slider for a called strike. That’s my positive takeaway from this outing. The rest leaves me to believe that this is going to be quite a project. A high-upside project at that. That sentence contains both the concern and the reason I’m not blinking. Command issues at 18 with that arm speed is a project, not a problem. I still love this arm. I do think there needs to be conditioning work in the future, but the kid is still 18. One offseason and all of that can be taken care of. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter how hard you throw ball 4.

LOW-A BATS

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Tanner Franklin (High-A) — St. Louis Cardinals

Two starts in, 62 and 61 pitches respectively, and Tanner Franklin is blowing through hitters with a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and can touch triple digits when he reaches back for it. Seven strikeouts in three innings last night. That’s not a contact-suppressor working the edges — that’s a man with a weapon and the conviction to use it.

The pairing is a mid-80s sweeper with good action. Right now you’re looking at a fastball-sweeper combination that gives hitters almost no chance to sit on one pitch because the shapes are so dramatically different. When you can throw 98 and then roll something with that kind of horizontal break in the mid-80s, you don’t need four pitches to get outs. You need execution. And Franklin has been executing.

The Cardinals are stretching him out in the loosest definition of that term — 62 and 61 pitches are controlled, deliberate outings from an organization that is clearly being patient with something they believe in. They’re not rushing him to 90 pitches. They’re building the arm, letting him feel what dominance looks like at this level before asking for more. That’s the right approach. A fastball that touches 100 with a sweeper that has real action doesn’t need to be rushed.

I won’t rule out added secondary development in the offseason either. The Cardinals have a track record of arm development and if they see what I see — a starter’s mentality with closer-level stuff — they’re going to invest in a changeup or a curve to give him a third weapon. When that arrives, the conversation changes from breakout to legitimate top pitching prospect. This is a true breakout. You heard it here first.

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LOW-A — ARMS

Jesus Tillero | RHP | Los Angeles Dodgers | Ontario Tower Buzzers

6 innings. 2 hits. 0 earned runs. 5 strikeouts. 2 walks. 67 pitches.

The Pitching Savant delivered another statement line. Consider me excited. Six innings, two hits, zero runs on 67 pitches — efficient, clean, and utterly dominant in terms of contact quality suppression. The Tower Buzzers won 6-5 over the 66ers in a game that wasn’t decided until late, and Tillero handled his assignment with exactly the kind of composure you’d expect from a profile that generates this kind of movement data. He didn’t need 90 pitches to get through six. That is the profile.

Through 2 outings on the season, Tillero is at: 11IP 4H 0ER 2BB 13K with a .114 Average against. We were here first.

I included Tillero in My Guys: ProspectTilt’s favorite pitching targets outside consensus Top 100s. And I’ve been clamoring about him for nearly 2-3 years now. Here is what I wrote:

Edgar Colon | RHP | Cincinnati Reds | Daytona Tortugas

6 innings. 1 hit. 1 earned run. 10 strikeouts. 1 walk. 77 pitches.

11th round prep arm from 2024 averaging 96.2 through 6 innings and topping at 98.5 with a handful of pitches showing incredible ride? Consider me intrigued. He wasn’t 97 in the 1st and then 94 in the 6th inning, either. He maintained velocity throughout the night. His final three 4-seamers on the night were 96.9, 96.0, and 95.0. Ten strikeouts in six innings on 77 pitches. The single hit allowed was a home run — the only blemish on a performance that otherwise saw him carve through the Flying Tigers lineup with authority. One hit, one run, ten punch outs. Consider me intrigued. Did I say that already? I think my intrigue-level deserved another mention. That’s a dominant start at any level. Colon had the second-best individual pitching line on the entire Low-A slate tonight and deserves full attention in the Reds system.

Mason Peters | LHP | Seattle Mariners | Inland Empire 66ers

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LOW-A — ARMS

Kendry Chourio | RHP | Kansas City Royals | Columbia Fireflies

4.2 innings. 0 hits. 0 earned runs. 6 strikeouts. 59 pitches.

No hits. No runs. Six strikeouts. Fifty-nine pitches. And he still had more left in the tank when the Fireflies went to the bullpen. Chourio was untouchable against the Pelicans — a lineup that got exactly nothing off him from the first pitch to the last — and the efficient pitch count tells you this wasn’t a guy grinding through traffic. He was coasting. Chourio sat mid 90s and featured a litany of secondaries that kept hitters off balance. The Royals have more than just “something” here and tonight was an absolute statement performance. Prior to the season, I mentioned that the front runners for top pitching prospect in the game by the end of the season would be Ryan Sloan and/or Seth Hernandez. Kendry Chourio isn’t far behind.

Tyler Boudreau | RHP | New York Yankees | Tampa Tarpons

4.1 innings. 3 hits. 1 earned run. 9 strikeouts. 62 pitches.

Nine strikeouts in 4.1 innings on 62 pitches. That’s the line. That’s the number you sit with for a minute. For context, that pitch count suggests Boudreau was putting hitters away quickly and efficiently — nine punch outs without breaking 65 pitches means he wasn’t working deep counts to get there. The stuff is generating whiffs early, and the results back it up. Speaking of the stuff — Boudreau is throwing a 94 mph fastball with over 19 inches of ride and a sub 10 inch horizontal break. That’s a really good movement profile for this type of arm. He also mixed in his changeup, slider, and curveball to good results — his entire arsenal generating a .138 xwOBA. And something tells me, like with arms in the past, that there is more in the tank for velocity gains. We saw it with Cam Schlittler. When I first scouted Schlittler, he was sitting 93-95 and is now sitting 97-98 nearly 2 years later.

James Ellwanger | RHP | Minnesota Twins | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

4 innings. 1 hit. 0 earned runs. 5 strikeouts. 50 pitches.

The results line is clean. Now let me tell you why the stuff behind it matters.

Ellwanger’s fastball sat at 96.2 mph with above-average ride and enough arm-side run to miss barrels when he elevates it. It has good bat-missing shape up in the zone — the kind of fastball that doesn’t need to be perfect because hitters are already late on it and can’t lift it when they do make contact. That’s what you want from a power fastball at Low-A.

The curveball is the separator. A power curve spinning at approximately 2,700 rpm that has induced a 0% xwOBA against it — meaning hitters are not squaring it up. At all. Small sample, yes. But a zero is a zero and it means something about the shape of the pitch and how hitters are reacting to it in real time.

Then there’s the changeup — and this is where it gets interesting. The velocity differential isn’t massive, so it’s a power change rather than a slow-it-way-down offering. But the movement profile is borderline elite. Elite drop. Elite fade. The combination of those two movement axes creates a pitch that falls off the table and away from hitters simultaneously, and it’s generated a 50% whiff rate out of the gate. Again — small sample. But 50% is not a number you see from a pitch that isn’t doing something special.

Three pitches. All three with legitimate weapons-grade characteristics at Low-A. The Twins have something here.

Reed Moring | RHP | Minnesota Twins | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

4 innings. 3 hits. 0 earned runs. 5 strikeouts. 3 walks. 73 pitches.

Reed Moring is an interesting name to note in the Twins system and tonight was the kind of start that makes you want to dig into the profile.

He’s not a pure velocity arm. He is command and shape-driven — and there is a meaningful distinction between the two that gets lost when people evaluate pitchers at this level. Moring’s fastball sits 92-94, specifically 92.9, and carries over 19 inches of induced vertical break. That is a high-riding, high-spin offering that works best when it’s living at the top of the zone — the ride is the weapon, not the triple-digit reading on the gun. When a fastball has that kind of vertical movement profile it becomes genuinely difficult to square up at the letters, and hitters who chase it up are doing exactly what you want them to do.

The secondary arsenal is what makes this profile worth tracking. The gyro-slider is fairly tight with late break — not a big sweeping action, but something that darts late and generates whiffs at the point of contact when he needs an out pitch. The curveball has been the most effective whiff generator in his arsenal and looks like a legitimate second out pitch. The changeup rounds it out with over 11 inches of arm-side fade and enough velocity separation to keep hitters honest — another legitimate weapon.

Four distinct pitches. Each with a defined shape and a defined purpose. The profile is not built for strikeout volume as the primary outcome — it’s built around sequencing, command, and attacking hitters with different looks. The three walks tonight are the one number to watch going forward but the results line — four innings, zero runs — tells you the stuff was good enough to work through any traffic.

And are we ruling out velocity gains in the offseason? No. We never do.

I want to give a shoutout to Corey Schrader aka CRS-One for putting me onto Reed Moring before anyone else. You can find him and follow him on Twitter/X @CoreySchrader — And you can also read his work over at Medium.

Dylan Brown | LHP | Boston Red Sox | Salem Ridge Yaks

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1. Brian Curley (High-A) — Arizona Diamondbacks

   Let’s start with the guy who is sitting atop the TiltValue leaderboard after a week and a half. I know it’s only one start — but Curley managed to put up a 53.3% K rate by striking out 8 batters in 4 innings of work, while allowing only 3 hits on no runs. No walks, either. Curley is undersized for a pitcher but built like a running back, listed at 5’10 212 lbs. He’s like an Alvin Kamara with a high riding fastball w/ the added versatility to add new pitches. And like Alvin Kamara, he was overlooked heading into the draft, being taken in the late 3rd round at pick 92. The ball zips out of his hand as he makes his way to the plate and he generates the most out of his size. His fastball carries a lot of spin and has late life and ride to it. Arizona is utilizing him as a starter for now so that’s the way we’re going to paint it. Brian Curley is a starter. And like Alvin Kamara, I think he will be shown to be underrated post-draft. Also like Kamara, Curley is going to prove to be versatile with his ability to hone his secondaries and possibly even add more secondary offerings to his arsenal. I’m not sure if there is a ton of noise about Brian Curley at the moment (besides the niche TiltValue leaderboard in which he is the top dog) but the noise will start to amplify if he continues to pitch like an underdog and continues to rack up the K’s while maintaining his command.

2. Evan Siary (Low-A) — Texas Rangers

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LOW-A — ARMS

Allen Facundo | LHP | New York Yankees | Tarpons

5.2 innings. 1 hit. 1 earned run. 8 strikeouts. 71 pitches.

Eight punchouts in 5.2 innings on 71 pitches is the kind of efficiency that makes an arm impossible to ignore. One hit allowed, one earned run — which came courtesy of the bullpen unraveling after he exited — and a pitch count that suggests there was more left in the tank. The Tarpons/Threshers game was postponed and rescheduled for April 9th, but not before Facundo put together the most dominant individual pitching performance on the Low-A slate.

Facundo battled injuries in 2024 and 2025 and was basically on the IL for the majority of the two years. He’s now 23, back at Low-A, and could be a quick riser through the system. The fastball and sinker are mid 90s, sitting anywhere from 94-96. He pairs that with arguably his best pitch which is his slider - a mid 80s high spin slider (~2800 rpm). Last night the 4-seamer touched 96.8 and Facundo has all the makings of a potential legitimate bullpen arm in the Bronx.

Ty Van Dyke | RHP | St. Louis Cardinals | Palm Beach Cardinals

5.2 innings. 3 hits. 0 earned runs. 6 strikeouts. 74 pitches.

Van Dyke is doing what good pitchers do — working efficiently through lineups, keeping the ball in the park, and letting the defense work. Six strikeouts in 5.2 innings on 74 pitches is a clean, professional outing and the Cardinals system keeps generating arms that know what they’re doing. Worth to note, he is 22 years old at Low-A, however, he was just drafted in the 10th round in last years draft. We’ll see how quickly he moves.

Riley Eikhoff | RHP | Chicago White Sox | Cannon Ballers

5 innings. 1 hit. 0 earned runs. 7 strikeouts. 73 pitches.

Seven K in 5 innings on 73 pitches — and the one hit allowed was the only traffic he saw all day. The Cannon Ballers had the best pitching performance of any Midwest League team on the slate and Eikhoff was the reason. Clean and efficient. Big bounce back from his first outing of the year in which he allowed 4 runs.

Charlie Christensen & Cale Wetwiska | RHP | Detroit Tigers | Flying Tigers

4 innings. 0 hits. 0 earned runs. 5 strikeouts. 42 pitches.

He shut down the Tortugas lineup and didn’t need many bullets to do it. 42 pitches for 4 innings of no-hit ball is the kind of efficiency you dream about from a starting arm. The Flying Tigers pitching depth continues to show up at Low-A.

Christensen is a Tread athlete — he went from sitting 87-90 to then sitting 92-94, touching 95. This was back in August. Last night he averaged 93.5. I’m not going to rule out any other upticks in velo with another offseason under his belt. I’ll keep tracking this one.

I’m going to show some love to Cale Wetwiska, the 7th rounder in 2025, who averaged 95.5 mph on his fastball with over 18 inches of IVB. He topped out at 98.1 and is just 20 years old. The results weren’t as sharp as Christensen’s, however, the stuff seems to be fairly ridiculous for someone his age. Not only keeping an eye out, but jotting the name down for future reference.

Nelson Keljo + Miguel Flores | RHP | Cleveland Guardians | Howlers

Combined: 8 innings. 0 earned runs. 11 strikeouts.

Keljo: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 62 pitches. Flores: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 49 pitches.

Four innings. Zero walks. Five strikeouts. Flores was in lockdown mode and the back half of the Howlers’ pitching appearance was cleaner than the front.

LOW-A — BATS

Jhonny Level | SS | San Francisco Giants | San Jose Giants

3-for-5. 2 doubles. Home run. 1 RBI.

The case keeps building and at this point it’s not even a case anymore — it’s a verdict. Three hits including two doubles and a home run. The slash line is .522/.560/1.517 with 2 homers and 3 stolen bases through 5 games. The extra base hit production seems real, consistent, and pointing in one direction. Jhonny Level has run out of reasons to be in Low-A. He is lapping this competition and every additional at-bat he spends against Low-A pitching is a wasted opportunity. The Giants need to make this decision. The bat is ready for the next challenge. I’ve been calling it since game 1.

Taitn Gray | 1B | Tampa Bay Rays | Charleston River Dogs

2-for-3. Home run. 4 RBI.

Stop what you’re doing.

Taitn Gray is 18 years old. He was a third-round pick. And he has put up some of the most ridiculous numbers of any bat in Low-A to start the 2026 season. The .417 batting average is not a misprint. The 1.255 OPS is not a sample size fluke. It’s April and this teenager is hitting the baseball with authority and power at a level where most players his age are still figuring out professional pitching. The swing looks easy and fluid and he’s making the most of it.

Two hits including a home run and four runs batted in last night. The profile is already showing up — power, contact, production — from a bat the Rays clearly knew what they were doing with on draft day. The name is going to matter. Lock it in now.

Tate Southisene | 2B | Atlanta Braves | Augusta GreenJackets

2-for-6. Home run. 3 RBI. 22nd overall pick in the 2025 draft.

The power showed up tonight in a big way. The 22nd overall pick drove in three runs including a home run in an 11-run offensive explosion for Augusta. The bat has been quiet early in the season and tonight was the answer. Keeping an eye out.

Murf Gray | 3B | Pittsburgh Pirates | Bradenton Marauders

3-for-4. 1 RBI. 73rd overall pick in the 2025 draft.

Three hits in four at-bats is the best night Gray has had at this level …. since his first game on April 3rd, when he went 2-for-4 with a homer. He’s been rather consistent at the plate, however it’s concerning that he is striking out a bit and has shown no inclination towards working a count and drawing a walk. We’ll see.

Chase Harlan | 3B | Los Angeles Dodgers | Ontario Tower Buzzers

3-for-3. Home run. 3 RBI. 2 walks.

A perfect night at the plate for another Dodgers standout — three hits and two walks — with a home run thrown in. The Dodgers Low-A affiliate is loaded and Harlan keeps delivering results at the top of the lineup. The production is impossible to ignore.

Avinson Pinto | SS | Boston Red Sox | Salem Ridge Yaks

3-for-4. 2 doubles. An aggressive hitter and he’s just 18 years old. Where have I heard that before? Let’s see what the Red Sox can get out of Pinto before the season is over. This is a tough assignment for the 18 year old but last night was a nice indication that he can hold his own. Still too early, though.

Isaiah Barkett | DH | San Francisco Giants | San Jose Giants

3-for-4. Double. Home run. 1 RBI.

On the same night Jhonny Level went 3-for-5 with a homer, Barkett matched him. The Giants’ Low-A lineup is producing out of multiple spots and the 10th rounder in 2025, Barkett is one of the reasons why. Three hits with a homer and a double to go with it — that’s a complete offensive line.

HIGH-A — ARMS

Tyler Switalski | LHP | San Francisco Giants | Eugene Emeralds

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LOW-A — ARMS

Marlon Nieves | RHP | Los Angeles Dodgers | Tower Buzzers

Six innings. One hit. Zero runs. Six strikeouts on 66 pitches.

That’s the line. But the line doesn’t tell you what I saw, so let me tell you what I saw.

Nieves was operating in the upper 90s with a fastball that had late, explosive life — pairing it with a changeup and a slider that gave hitters an entirely different look out of the same hand. The arm speed is the same on everything. The deception is real. And the stuff reminds me of someone.

I don’t throw this comparison around lightly. But the arm speed, the violence in the delivery, the fastball that gets on hitters before they’re ready — it’s reminiscent of the late, young Yordano Ventura from what I saw tonight.

The Dodgers pitching factory keeps producing arms nobody is talking about until everyone is talking about them. Marlon Nieves looks like the next one in that line. Flag planted. There are enough flags planted in the Dodgers system that would make the United Nations blush.

Sean Hermann | RHP | Seattle Mariners | 66ers

5 innings. 1 hit. Zero runs. 7 strikeouts on 73 pitches.

Hermann is quietly putting together a case as one of the better arms in Low-A and the stuff generates swing-and-miss consistently enough that these lines are going to keep showing up. The ball comes out easy, albeit a funky-ass delivery, and the command is the carrying feature. It’s almost as if Hermann studied the classical Japanese pitchers and their mechanics because that’s what he looks like on the mound. What works - works, though. Name worth knowing before the promotion conversation starts. Monitoring.

Blake Gillespie | RHP | New York Yankees | Tarpons

6 innings. 4 hits. Zero runs. 6 strikeouts on 73 pitches.

The Yankees system keeps producing arms who know what they’re doing on the mound and Gillespie fits the profile exactly — efficient, ahead in counts, getting through lineups with conviction. Six innings of scoreless ball on 73 pitches is a statement. Love the delivery — slow and steady and then he explodes at the last given second heading towards the mound. Great mound presence. Gillespie doesn’t seem long for Low-A. Keeping an eye out for him.

Angel Jimenez | RHP | Colorado Rockies | Grizzlies

4.2 innings. 9 strikeouts on 89 pitches.

Nine punchouts in under five innings from anyone in any system is worth tracking. The Colorado tax makes evaluation tricky at every level but the raw swing-and-miss stuff seems real.

Winyer Chourio | RHP | San Diego Padres | Storm

4 innings. 1 earned run. 6 strikeouts on 70 pitches.

After his team gave up 16 runs after he exited the game, the contrast was stark. Chourio held down his side of the outing with efficiency and a repertoire that kept hitters uncomfortable all night. 22 years old in Low-A, so not sure what to make of this.

LOW-A — BATS

Ronny Cruz | 3B | Washington Nationals | Nationals

3-for-5. Double. Triple. Home run. 4 RBI.

He’s 19 years old. He has 2 home runs in 4 games. His entire 2025 Low-A home run total was 2. He has already matched it.

The hit tool was always the carrying grade on Cruz but if the power is genuinely arriving ahead of schedule on a 19-year-old frame — and tonight’s extra base hit in every direction suggests it is — the ceiling conversation gets louder in a hurry. When a teenage bat starts matching a full season’s power output in 4 games, you pay attention. I’m starting to become really intrigued.

Kayson Cunningham | SS | Arizona Diamondbacks | Rawhide

3-for-3. Triple. 2 RBI. 3 walks. 18th overall pick in the 2025 draft.

One word: patient. Three walks alongside three hits means Cunningham had six productive plate appearances without recording a single out. He’s making contact when he swings and he’s making pitchers work when he doesn’t. He doesn’t look long for Low-A. The Diamondbacks are going to have to make a decision soon and I think they already know what it is. We’ll see if the power shows up as he develops. That’s not his calling card, but the hit tool is reminiscent of Kevin McGonigle. D-backs have been drafting extremely well recently.

Hayden Jatczak | 1B | San Francisco Giants | Giants

HitTilt+ #1 overall and he followed it up with a 2-for-5, double showing against the Rawhide. The production is not a fluke. Or is it? .462 on the season. Also 24 years old in Low-A. I’ll keep tabs.

Jhonny Level | SS | San Francisco Giants | Giants

2-for-5. Double. 3 RBI. Stolen Base. Hitting .500 on the season with 14 Total Bases in just 4 games.

I’ll say it plainly — Jhonny Level should not be in Low-A much longer. The Giants have a prospect development decision to make and the answer is pointing in one direction. Every game he spends here is a game wasted against competition he’s already lapping. I’m all aboard the Jhonny Level train.

Andy Polanco | CF | San Francisco Giants | Giants

4-for-4. Triple. 4 runs scored. Stolen Base. A perfect night at the plate. The Giants’ Low-A lineup is loaded and when everybody is rolling, Polanco delivered the most complete individual line. Still a 20 year old at Low-A — 11th round pick in the 2024 draft out of High School and didn’t show much power last year. Keeping an eye on him to see if he has something in store for us this season.

Eli Willits | SS | Washington Nationals | Nationals

0-for-2, 3 BB, 3 stolen bases. Season stolen base total: 6.

The 1st overall pick in the 2025 draft is not filling up the hit column every night — but he is absolutely forcing the issue on the bases and working counts to a degree that is rare from a teenager in his first full-season debut. Six stolen bases in the first week is an aggressive base running profile announcing itself. The hit tool will come. The speed and the instincts are already here.

Kleyver Salazar | C | Boston Red Sox | Ridge Yaks

4-for-5. 2 doubles. 2 RBI.

Here is what you need to know about Kleyver Salazar: he was a shortstop before the Red Sox converted him behind the plate. He has a plus arm. He is a defensive wizard. And the bat that showed up in flashes last July is back — 4-for-5 with a pair of doubles tonight. If that version can sustain itself across a full season the story around him changes. The defensive profile carries him regardless. The offense makes him interesting. Really intriguing name here if the offensive profile can match the defensive profile.

Joshua Liranzo | 3B | Baltimore Orioles | Shorebirds

2-for-5. Home run. 3 RBI. One of three Shorebirds to go deep on the night and Liranzo’s was the most impactful. The raw power is there and we’ll continue to monitor if it is showing up in games. Also of note — the K rate and swing decisions. He often works the count out of his favor and gets in trouble for it. We’ll see if he’s made changes this season.

Andrew Salas | SS | Miami Marlins | Hammerheads

4-for-5. Double. Home run. 1 RBI. Repeating the level as an 18 year old after an aggressive assignment to Low-A last year as a 17 year old. He ended up slashing .186/.319/.245 in 104 games to go with 110 strikeouts. A lot of people wrote him off for it. The positive. He stole 39 bases despite the low OBP which shows he has the speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. I’m expecting better results his second time around. This season? The bat speed is showing up. The big question will be is the power for real?

HIGH-A — ARMS

Carlson Reed | RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates | Grasshoppers

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